CW: 'The Secret Circle' Falls To A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.44
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.82
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 1.01
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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5/3 Update: The Vampire Diaries, 90210 & Supernatural have all been renewed.

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While I still think that The Secret Circle has a better chance at renewal than Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, after two consecutive 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings I can no longer consider it "likely to be renewed" and it's now down to a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

And while The L.A. Complex may have a long and happy life in Canada, after its six episodes run on the CW this spring, you'll never see it on The CW again because of its dreadful ratings. I've also moved Ringer to "certain cancellation". As now the lowest rated CW show on any night (save TLAC), it's done.

This is the last "regular" CW Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Pete

    TSC WILL ve renewed you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see that. It scored 6 consecutive 0.7s up until just a few weeks ago. The CW will most certainly take that into consideration. Having TVD as a lead in is irrelevant as TSC will have an audience who follow it now no matter when it airs.

    I’m not saying it will survive past Season 2 as no one knows if it will drop next year but it will be back no doubt about it.

  • Sid

    The L.A. Complex-Cancelled
    Ringer*-Cancelled
    Nikita (F)-Hopefully renewed for 13 episodes
    Gossip Girl-13 episode Final Season
    Hart Of Dixie-13 episode renewal
    90210-Renewed
    The Secret Circle-Cancelled
    One Tree Hill* final season
    Supernatural (F)-Renewed
    Vampire Diaries-Renewed

  • EatMorePez

    How bad are things at The CW?
    Last week’s average rating on the network was 0.575, which means the 0.6 rating of 90210 was ABOVE average.

  • Sid

    @Bill

    Funny that you moved RINGER to Certain Cancellation while Robert just moved it to Likely Cancellation.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “How bad are things at The CW?
    Last week’s average rating on the network was 0.575″

    And that’s not their lowest weekly average for new scripted shows this spring. They’ve had a 0.47, 0.53 & 0.57 as well.

  • KS

    I guess, HoD has the best chance of Renewal among fresher shows. It is the only show, that has some signs of improvement. But as far as TSC is concerned, there are clear signs that its a failure. It got enough promotion and was given the second best time slot, but didn’t deliver much. If CW management were clever enough, they would cancel Ringer, TSC, Nikita(I hope it would be renewed) and give GG the final season.

  • Z

    Hmm. If Heart of Dixie does not get adjusted down and Nikita gets a .4 this week then I think Heart of Dixie has a better renewal chance than Nikita unfortunately, hopefully at least a 13 episode renewal.

  • rob60990

    Hart of Dixie’s chances at renewal get better and better. This was a show the CW threw in probably the worst timeslot and not even close to the failure that Secret Circle and Ringer were.

  • Pete

    @ KS

    No new show will deliver what TVD does in that time slot ever thats the thing. TVD is a one off thing for the CW and I don’t know why people can’t seem to understand that.

  • Rachel

    If HOD gets renewed Josh Schwartz will have 4 shows on that network next year. Ridiculous.

  • alexjones

    @pete
    yeah they’re gonna keep that show around for as long as they can I think, I wouldn’t be surprised if the day TVD ends is the day the CW ends.

  • Dan

    I don’t see how people think Hart of Dixie will be cancelled over The Secret Circle if TSC continues getting 0.5’s. Hart of Dixie has been the steadiest new show and has been pretty much in the 0.8-0.6 range all season long. If you renew it, it will most likely stay steady. TSC on the other hand is still declining. I would take a chance renewing HOD rather than TSC if I ran the network! So sad that Ringer has been downgraded, but it’s funny how Robert upgraded it on this week’s bubble watch…

  • Brian

    Renew TSC, Nikita, and Ringer :)

  • Rachel

    @Dan
    And TSC’s ratings look worse because it has a strong lead-in. The retention is terrible, not even 50%. If I were the president I’d cancel all the new shows and Nikita. Start fresh.

  • Aerilyn

    I still have my hopes up for TSC to be renewed. The show has improved immensely, and I hope the CW gives it a 2nd shot. I’m confident they will, but I still have my fingers crossed that TSC will be renewed while I’m thinking Ringer and HoD will get cancelled.

    I think the CW may pick up at least 4 or 5 new pilots though. Saving two for mid-season and premiering 3 news ones in the fall.

  • Sid

    “If HOD gets renewed Josh Schwartz will have 4 shows on that network next year. Ridiculous.”

    That irks me too! :(

  • Joel

    are you forgetting that TLAC’s encore scored the same demo and MORE total viewers than when it premiered! i think it will go up this week!

  • JJJ

    Yes HOD is improving versus the other bubbles–I think it has passed in order–Ringer, Nikita, TSC. I think all those 3 are dead and HOD is borderline depending on how many pilots are a go.

  • Adrian

    I still think CW might premiere all 6 new shows next season. They don’t have to premiere all them in the fall. They can do 3 in the fall and 3 midseason, or 4 and 2. Give 13 episodes to all new shows and back 9 to what works, get rid of what doesn’t.

    At this point they don’t have anything to lose, even if the new shows tank and get 0.4-0.3 ratings, that’s what the current ones will be getting next season anyway.

  • JJA

    We should start learning what gets renewed very soon?

    My final predictions:
    -VD, HOD, SPN and 90210 renewed
    -GG gets 12-13 episodes for midseason (not in the fall)
    -Ringer, Nikita and Secret Circle canceled
    -SPN moves to Friday @ 8PM (Friday @ 9PM is a rerun of something)
    -4 new scripted shows get picked up (3 for fall, and 1 for midseason)
    -next year will be the end for both 90210 and Supernatural

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