CW: 'The Secret Circle' Falls To A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.44
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.82
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 1.01
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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5/3 Update: The Vampire Diaries, 90210 & Supernatural have all been renewed.

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While I still think that The Secret Circle has a better chance at renewal than Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, after two consecutive 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings I can no longer consider it "likely to be renewed" and it's now down to a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

And while The L.A. Complex may have a long and happy life in Canada, after its six episodes run on the CW this spring, you'll never see it on The CW again because of its dreadful ratings. I've also moved Ringer to "certain cancellation". As now the lowest rated CW show on any night (save TLAC), it's done.

This is the last "regular" CW Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dan

    I really wish they would save Hart of Dixie and Ringer for 13 episodes each and then cancel both TSC and Nikita, but that’s just wishful thinking! I just hate that it’s all about ratings. I think out of the three new shows, Ringer shows the most promise creatively-sucks that it got terrible ratings and it almost certainly going to be canceled. I’m going to keep hoping until the very end though! If The CW renewed both Ringer and HOD, I would be one happy person haha.

  • Jamie

    It’s so hard to predict what The CW will do for next season. All of their ratings are so close and they apparently picking up 6 new drama series.

    And Shelter hasn’t even been finished yet. It’s JJ Abrams and Mark Schwahn so it will surely be good.

    Maybe they will completely overhaul the network.

    Certain renewals (IMO):

    Full seasons…
    Supernatural
    90210
    Vampire Diaries
    Top Model (will likely get the spring cycle, too)

    half seasons…
    Gossip Girl

  • HODD

    Monday
    8pm: The Selection
    9pm: Hart Of Dixie/The First Cut

    Tuesday
    8pm: 90210
    9pm: The Carrie Diaries

    Wednesday
    8pm: GG/Cult
    9pm: ANTM

    Thursday
    8pm: TVD
    9pm: The Beauty & The Beast

    Friday
    8pm: Arrow
    9pm: Supernatural

  • hammard

    My final predictions for next year’s schedule:

    Mon 0800: Gossip Girl [final]\Cult (13 episodes each)
    Mon 0900: The Selection
    Tue 0800: 90210
    Tue 0900: Carrie Diaries
    Wed 0800: ANTM
    Wed 0900: First Cut
    Thu 0800: Vampire Diaries
    Thu 0900: Arrow
    Fri 0800: The Secret Circle [no back order]
    Fri 0900: Supernatural [final season]

    I think it would get better ratings if they did keep Nikita on Friday at 8 instead but I think they’ll move Secret Circle instead. I think Arrow and Selection could either air on Monday or Friday

  • JJJ

    There’s no way SPN will be having a final season next year–it has too much momentum and the J’s seem fine with going on for a while. Maybe a final season 9 but not S8.

  • Moe

    I know its getting close to the upfronts but I still wish the CW would announce early renewals already! I really want to know we’re getting season 8 of Supernatural before the crush of the Avengers movie opening.

  • Louis

    The thing about Supernatural is, would WB want SPN to stay on longer to hit 200 episodes since they already knocking 150 by the end of this season.
    But then again it depends on the stars of the show mostly.

  • Dillan

    TSC will be renewed. People really need to accept it. It’s had two 0.5′s and one 0.6. Everything else has been above, that’s enough for The CW to renew it.

    Nikita, Ringer and maybe HoD will be cancelled. Ringer and Nikita definitely, HoD I’m not so sure about. It’s ratings keep on going up and down.

  • Michael

    The L.A. Complex- Cancelled
    Ringer- Cancelled
    Nikita (F)- (Final season, 13 episodes).
    Gossip Girl- (Final season, 13 episodes).
    Hart Of Dixie- 13 episodes pick-up.
    90210- Renewed
    The Secret Circle- Renewed (will be moved from the Thursday line-up).
    Supernatural (F)- Renewed
    Vampire Diaries- Renewed

  • Michael

    Moe, looks like CW is the only prime-time network that didn’t do early renewals this year, lol. Well, besides renewing another cycle of ANTM.

  • Jo

    I thought that fall ratings were irrelevant and spring ratings mattered in order to determine how the show will/would perform next year?

  • SmG

    Q: Any news on a renewal? If the show isn’t picked up for 2nd season, will you know soon enough to wrap up the storylines? We keep our fingers crossed anyway!

    WB: No news on renewal. We’ll know by mid-May. Pray for us. I want to stay employed.

    New Wilson Bethel interview

    http://www.myfanbase.de/serien/interviews/?pid=13836

  • HODD

    Predictions 2012/2013
    Arrow:2 millions viewers
    The Carrie Diaries:1.5
    The Selection:3
    Cult:1.5
    Shelter:2.0
    The Beauty And The Beast:2.5
    The First Cut:1.5

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Bill: Regardless of its fall, at 1.01 I don’t see TSC being that much of a toss-up given the CW’s total train wreck.

    It will be moved to Friday for a second season and THEN cancelled.

    Nikita is doomed. Ringer is THANK GOD doomed. The LA Complex is doomed. Hart of Dixie is much more of a toss-up than TSC depending on how many shows the CW intends to cancel.

  • Kate

    When it comes to TSC vs HOD (because I believe it will come down to those two as far as which freshman series gets the renewal) is that TSC has rapidly decreased since coming back. All the shows had long breaks, so you can’t use that as an excuse, either. It’s gone from getting 1.0+ to .5/.6s. I know it got decent (I say this because it’s a freshman show and was getting the same demo ratings as veteran shows) demo ratings from Sept-Jan/Feb, but you have to look at the decline. HOD has stayed relatively steady (albeit, lower) in that area, only going from a .8/.9 to a .5/.6. TSC took way too long to get the ball rolling plot wise, people don’t sit through 18 episodes waiting for something to happen, especially on a show like that.

    Renewed (full season orders): TVD, SPN, 90210
    Renewed (unfortunately, but only 13 episodes max): GG and they should air it in the spring since it’s on its way out anyway, and ANTM
    “Bubble” shows (all depends on how many pilots they order, 2 could go or all of them could): HOD, TSC, Nikita
    Canceled/final season: OTH, Ringer, H8er, Remodeled

    All of Josh Schwartz’s shows are mediocre (for the The CW, not in general) at best. Having 4 of his shows on the network is an incredibly stupid move IMO.

  • Pete

    @ Dillan

    You read my mind and speak perfect sense.

  • HODD

    CANCELLED:RINGER & TSC
    FINAL SEASON:GG
    RENEWED:90210,ANTM,TVD,SUPERNATURAL,HOD
    NEW SHOW:CULT,ARROW,THE BEAUTY & THE BEAST,THE CARRIE DIARIES,THE SELECTION,SHELTER

  • Rachel

    @HODD
    Arrow:2 millions viewers I agree.
    The Carrie Diaries:1.5 I think it’ll have a strong premiere then drop drastically.
    The Selection:3 If TVD is only getting 2 million these days this won’t do that well. Maybe 2 million.
    Cult:1.5 I agree. If it’s only a midseason replacement they can’t expect much anyway.
    Shelter:2.0 I’m not convinced this one will be picked up but if it is it’ll get the OTH audience. So the demos will be pretty high by CW standards.
    The Beauty And The Beast:2.5 I agree.
    The First Cut:1.5 I agree.

  • Rachel

    @Kate
    All of Josh Schwartz’s shows are mediocre (for the The CW, not in general) at best. Having 4 of his shows on the network is an incredibly stupid move IMO.

    I completely agree. What’s even more ridiculous is the JS pilots have a better chance at being ordered to series than Mark Schwahn’s new show. OTH had the second highest demo ratings for the network when it ended. Clearly he is more credible than Josh Schwartz.

  • rehabber

    I enjoy HoD for the few laughs and TSC just never got me to care what happens to any of the characters. My 2 favorite shows on any channel are SPN and TVD.

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