CW: 'The Secret Circle' Falls To A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.44
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.82
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 1.01
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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5/3 Update: The Vampire Diaries, 90210 & Supernatural have all been renewed.

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While I still think that The Secret Circle has a better chance at renewal than Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, after two consecutive 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings I can no longer consider it "likely to be renewed" and it's now down to a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

And while The L.A. Complex may have a long and happy life in Canada, after its six episodes run on the CW this spring, you'll never see it on The CW again because of its dreadful ratings. I've also moved Ringer to "certain cancellation". As now the lowest rated CW show on any night (save TLAC), it's done.

This is the last "regular" CW Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Sid

    @Michael & Dan

    Oh I get it now! You two are fans of RINGER!

    No need for an explanation anymore. I’ve got you two figured out now; continue you with your rant. :D

    I look forward to reading it.

  • Sid

    Michael must be Eric Charmelo is disguise and Dan must be Nicole Snyder. :D

  • Bizarro

    I think something is wrong with the the CW’s time Ringer slot. Just about all shows have tanked there. I think maybe about 5, Melrose Place, Helcats, that modeling show, The LA Complex, and now Ringer. I don’t know what’s going on with that time slot. But I know Ringer was the first show since 90210 was in that time slot to not hit under a million. With all that promotion, award nominations, and international pickup Ringer failed. If the CW is still thinking about Ringer being renewed it’s because of the international pickup (airing in about 40 countries worldwide WAY more than other freshman shows), awards (has won 4 out of 12 awards), DVR ratings usually bumbs up to a 0.6, and iTunes/Amazon sells that has helped GG get renewed. If they shockingly decided to give it another chances it will be because of those factors and they’ll probably give it a 13 ep order and throw it on wednesdays or fridays. I think it would do WAY better. I was shocked when The LA Complex went up in total viewers as a REPEAT on wednesday after it premeired in that time slot! Does anyone think this slot is cursed?

  • Kavyn

    I personally think it’s in the CW’s best interest to renew HOD over TSC. I don’t watch either show, but HOD clearly has more stability than TSC. TSC can’t even maintain TVD’s audience, half of them tune out to another show every week. Whereas HOD is constantly doing better than it’s 5-year old veteran show Gossip Girl.

    I say cancel GG, TSC and Ringer, or put Nikita with Arrow and TSC with SPN, replace the show that’s doing worse with Cult.

  • Clare

    I think Bizarro may have a point, I can’t remember the last show that has done well in that slot. Heck when 90210 moved to that slot it lost viewers. I hope next year the CW will put an old stable show to try to defend itself because a new show will just start out good like Ringer and Hellcats and suddenly drop in viewers. 5 shows is a little much to have failed in that slot especially 3 shows in one year. I enjoy Ringer and hope the CW knows this by now. But I know if they put a new show in that slot, know matter how good it is I won’t be watching!

  • Rachel

    I hope they put The Carrie Diaries in that slot. That way there’s no doubt it will flop.

  • Clare

    The Carrie Diaries? Um I think they should try to put maybe 90210 or GG their. They should put the Carrie Diaries at 8 because it’s 99.9% going to fail at 9.

  • Justin121

    As of now,

    Hart of Dixie (likely renewal) > Nikita (BBL) > Secret Ciircle(BBL) > Ringer.

  • Sid

    “I hope they put The Carrie Diaries in that slot. That way there’s no doubt it will flop.”

    I was thinking the same thing! :)

  • Rachel

    @Clare
    But I want it to fail. :|

  • Rachel

    @Sid
    Great minds think alike.:)

  • Clare

    lol!

  • suzie

    The Carrie Diaries has flop written all over it. imo

  • Halls

    I hope Ringer gets renewed above all of these shows. It has the best cast of any CW show! Renew Renew Renew….

  • Sid

    I think The Carrie Diaries will premiere big but drop drastically. People will check it out because of curiosity.

  • Tommy

    While I agree that Tuesday at 9pm seems to be a death spot I think it would be a horrible idea to try and launch yet another show there.

    Personally I think they should air “gossip girl” then (as it is almost certain to be the final season) and then to air “The Carrie Diaries” at 8pm. Out of all of the pilots the CW has this is the only one that could easily be a self-starter and not need an established lead in (something the CW barely has).

  • Mark Wood

    Sc is not losing 50% of VD lead in.

    I am getting sick and tired of seeing this. The numbers you are comparing include sizable DVR results, not just live numbers. Live numbers are the only thing that are impacted by lead in.

    Sc is doing (and has been for awhile) 70% of VD.

    9pm shows on average due worse then 8pm shows on same day DVR. They ave an hour smaller window to be watched.

    I am all for SC getting cancelled, I think it’s the worst shw I have watched this season, but you can not rationally judge retention using any numbers that include DVR use.

  • Rachel

    @Mark Wood
    For someone who doesn’t like the show you sure seem pretty pissed about that.

  • ghj

    The CW need to grown so The carrie diaries need to be shown on TV but The Beauty & The Beast,Arrow,Cult,Shelter & The First Cur need to be pick up
    Sorry for error i’m french

  • Jordan

    The bottom line for Hart of Dixie is it has held steady ratings for an entire season in quite possibly the worst/most difficult timeslot on television. It would be absolutely ridiculous (especially with Gossip Girl’s certain renewal) if it didnt come back for another season.
    As far as CW pilots go- I don’t think we’ll see more than 3 picked up unless they decide to finally add Sunday nights to their schedule. My predictions for new shows- Arrow, Carrie Diaries, Shelter and/or Cult.

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