CW: 'The Secret Circle' Falls To A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.44
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.82
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 1.01
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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5/3 Update: The Vampire Diaries, 90210 & Supernatural have all been renewed.

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While I still think that The Secret Circle has a better chance at renewal than Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, after two consecutive 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings I can no longer consider it "likely to be renewed" and it's now down to a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

And while The L.A. Complex may have a long and happy life in Canada, after its six episodes run on the CW this spring, you'll never see it on The CW again because of its dreadful ratings. I've also moved Ringer to "certain cancellation". As now the lowest rated CW show on any night (save TLAC), it's done.

This is the last "regular" CW Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • SmG

    Shares are trending up in after market trading after CBS handily beat Wall Street’s already optimistic estimates for its Q1 results. The company reported net income of $363M, up nearly 80% vs the same period last year, on revenues of $3.9B, up 11.8%. Analysts had expected revenues to come in at about $3.8B. But the earnings figure is the big surprise: CBS delivered 54 cents a share, a dime ahead of the consensus forecast. The company says that ad revenues were up 5% in the quarter.

    -Deadline

  • MJDB

    Possible 2012-13 Primetime Schedule:

    Sunday:

    7:00-Syndicated Rerun
    7:30-Syndicated Rerun
    8:00-Syndicated Rerun
    8:30-Syndicated Rerun
    9:00-Syndicated Rerun
    9:30-Syndicated Rerun

    Monday:

    8:00-Gossip Girl (Final Season)/New Drama
    9:00-New Drama

    Tuesday:

    8:00-90210
    9:00-New Drama

    Wednesday:

    8:00-New Reality Show
    9:00-America’s Next Top Model (2 Seasons)

    Thursday:

    8:00-The Vampire Diaries
    9:00-The Secret Circle

    Friday:

    8:00-New Drama
    9:00-Supernatural

    Saturday:

    8:00-Syndicated Rerun
    9:00-Syndicated Rerun

  • JJA

    This is what I predict the fall schedule will look like:

    Mon 8-Carrie Diaries (new)
    Mon 9-Hart of Dixie

    Tue 8-90210 (final season)
    Tue 9-The Selection (new)

    Wed 8-[new reality show]
    Wed 9-ANTM

    Thur 8-Vampire Diaries
    Thur 9-Arrow (new)

    Fri 8-Supernatural (final season)
    Fri 9-[repeat of something]

    Midseason-Gossip Girl (13 final episodes)
    Midseason-Cult (new)

    Note that with Nikita only getting .4s (on Friday) and Secret Circle only getting .5s (after VD on Thursday), I think it’s more likely that BOTH will be canceled. Plus, no way the CW will premier a new show on Friday.

  • Mickey 1.0

    They should put Supernatural in the Tuesday 9 pm deathslot. The Winchesters know how to deal with a curse.

    @ghj
    The CW need to grown so The carrie diaries need to be shown on TV but The Beauty & The Beast,Arrow,Cult,Shelter & The First Cur need to be pick up
    Sorry for error i’m french

    Ne t’en fais pas, on a tres bien compris. Et je suis d’accord, le reseau a besoin de tout ce qui pourrait attirer de nouveaux spectateurs. Mais les experts disent que le reseau pourrait diffuser jusqu’a six nouvelles series l’annee prochaine, alors il est possible que toutes ces series voient le jour.

    Don’t worry, I’m not talking about anyone here. ;)

    @Mark Wood

    As a journalist, I respect someone who wants facts to be accurate, whether or not they have a horse in the race.

  • Harris

    As much as I would love to see Nikita get another 5 seasons, I almost kind of want them to announce that they are renewing Nikita for a final 13 episode air. They won’t though, because it doesn’t have enough for syndication. Still though, if they do bank on Nikita for one more season, it means there’s a decent shot we’ll get 2 seasons.

  • Mark

    MONDAY:
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – Hart of Dixie

    TUESDAY:
    8pm – Beauty and the Beast
    9pm – The Selection

    WEDNESDAY:
    8pm – 90210
    9pm – America’s Next Top Model

    THURSDAY:
    8pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9pm – The Carrie Dairies

    FRIDAY:
    8pm – The Secret Circle
    9pm – Supernatural

    MIDSEASON:
    Gossip Girl (final season)
    Cult

    SUMMER:
    First Cut

  • Keri

    I keep seeing predictions for “Hart of Dixie” 13 episode pickup… But do they even do that for a show’s second season? Wouldn’t it just automatically be a full 22-24 eps or none at all? Can someone who REALLY knows what they’re talking about please explain? For the record- I really hope it comes back either way!!

  • Dan

    OMFG @Sid, you did it again! This is why multiple people have called you a douchebag. You talk down to them. You just said both mine and Michael’s comments were basically invalid because we are fans of Ringer. How old are you? This is a serious question because I hope you’re like 12 with that type of logic you use. I have a feeling you’re older though, which is very sad.

    Anyway, back to things that matter. While Ringer obviously did not have the viewers, I can’t help but think it may have fared slightly better in a different time slot. By slightly I mean like 0.6’s or maybe a little higher. It is a known fact that Tuesdays at 9 is the CW death slot-have they ever launched a successful show there? Melrose Place-bomb. Hellcats-bomb. I think Life Unexpected was there-bomb. I really think The CW needs to put a show like Supernatural there or a show that is sure to bring in viewers (I’m thinking something like Arrow or maybe The Selection). I knew from the beginning that Ringer would do badly when I found out what time slot it was in last May haha. It’s a sad truth.

  • Dan

    @Keri-They did it with Life Unexpected in its second season. It was obviously cancelled after they all aired. I think they might do it with an optional back 9 in case the show turned things around and gained momentum. If the 13 episodes did worse in the ratings, they would just not order the back 9 and let it go. I could see The CW doing this for HOD, TSC, or Ringer in attempt to save one of their new dramas.

  • JJA

    There is no rule that Nikita MUST get a season 4 if they give it a season 3. They can cancel it after 3 seasons, like Veronica Mars and many other shows.

    Maggie Q made some comment in an interview that they can conclude Nikita’s stoy in just 3 seasons and no more. My secret wish is that Nikita will be back for a final season 3, either on the CW or via Netflix.

    Personally, I think a Nikita season 3 (promoted as the Final season) seems more likely at this point that a Secret Circle season 2. Aside from the ratings drop, Secret Circle has dropped in quality as well. A move to Friday will not be pretty.

  • The Other Tony

    My proposed CW fall schedule for 2012-13:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – 90210
    9:00 – Shelter (fall – 13 episodes with a possible back 9 pickup) / The Carrie Chronicles (spring – 13 episodes)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 –The Secret Circle (fall – 13 episodes with a possible back 9 pickup) / Joey Dakota (midseason – 13 episodes)
    9:00 – Arrow

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – America’s Next Top Model (fall/spring) / Hart of Dixie (midseason – 13 episodes)
    9:00 – Gossip Girl (final 13 episodes in the post-ANTM slot) / Cult (spring – 13 episodes)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – The Selection (fall)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Nikita (13-episode wrap-up) / ENCORES (midseason)
    9:00 – Supernatural

  • Kate

    @Dan – Agreed. If they give a show like HOD or Nikita a 13 episode order, it’s not a “send off” as they are newer shows and newer shows don’t get/deserve those. They’ll be giving them 13 episodes to see how they do in the fall compared to the other shows (both veteran and freshman alike) so that they have the option of either ending it in Nov/Dec or ordering a back 9.

    Now people are saying GG is going to get a full 22/24 episode order because its demo was at a .6 and they stayed above a million viewers (barely). What a joke.

  • Wagner

    My final predictions:
    TVD, SPN, TSC, 90210 and Gossip Girl (Final Season – 13 Episodes)
    Nikita, Ringer and HOD cancelled.

    Programming
    Monday
    8PM Gossip Girl/Mid Season Show
    9PM New Show 1
    Tuesday
    8PM 90210/New Show 2/90210
    9PM New Show 2/New Show 3
    Wednesday
    8PM 90210
    9PM New Show 3/New Realities
    Thursday
    8PM The Vampire Diaries
    9PM New Show 4 (A show that CW think that could hold up the lead in)
    Friday
    8PM The Secret Circle
    9PM Supernatural

    Maybe it’s unlike that CW will cancel four shows, so maybe HOD got renewed and then the programming will go like this:
    Monday
    8PM Gossip Girl/Hart Of Dixie
    9PM New Show 1
    Tuesday
    8PM 90210/New Show 2/90210
    9PM New Show 2/New Show 3
    Wednesday
    8PM 90210
    9PM New Show 3/New Realities
    Thursday
    8PM The Vampire Diaries
    9PM New Show 4 (A show that CW think that could hold up the lead in)
    Friday
    8PM The Secret Circle
    9PM Supernatural

  • The Other Tony

    Meant to add “fall – 13 episodes with a possible back 9 pickup” behind The Selection.

    Same applies to Arrow, although I believe ultimately Arrow will be the first new show on the CW next fall to be given a full 22-episode pickup…

  • Sid

    “Now people are saying GG is going to get a full 22/24 episode order because its demo was at a .6 and they stayed above a million viewers (barely). What a joke.”

    Lol, thought it was just me. 13 episodes is enough IMO; there’s no need for a single episode more.

  • Walter

    I predict a total start over for the CW. Their current shows just are not cutting it. I think they are going to cancel all four freshman series, cancel Nikita, renew Gossip Girl for a full 22-episode final season, and then renew Vampire Diaries, Supernatural, and 90210. Also, I think they are going to pick 5-6 new pilots, simply because they NEED a hit show desperately, and the more offerings they have the more broad an audience they’ll attract. And I think they will hold 2 series back for midseason.

  • Heather

    Well personally I’m an Aussie in love with Hart of Dixie and trying to figure out how ratings work in the US (this site is fantastic). I’ve realised that this time of the year must be so stressful, not just on the cast and crew of the shows but the viewers of them.

    I hope it doesn’t just come down to ratings because HOD is just starting to air overseas and growing their fan base. CW truly need to have faith in the potential of the show because it just keeps getting better and better! :)

  • jae

    i say:

    cancel ringer + tsc
    final 13 episodes for gg
    renew for 13 episodes (or cancel) nikita
    renew for 13 episode to start with for hod

  • Mickey 1.0

    @Keri

    Another example is Chuck, it was often renewed for a 13-ep order and then had orders of 6 to 11 eps added midseason, before it’s final 13-ep order for season 5. There’s no rule that says they have to order 22-24 eps unless it’s the last season.

  • Kate

    @Sid – Agreed 100%.

    If GG getting .5s and .6s during “good” weeks, what are the numbers going to look like next year? I know total viewers mean very little, if anything at all, but its new norm is around a million viewers so if they kept it around for an entire 22 episodes it wouldn’t surprise me if it hit the 700k mark at some point. 13 is generous, that is more than enough for them to tie everything up.

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