CW: 'The Secret Circle' Falls To A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.44
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.82
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 1.01
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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5/3 Update: The Vampire Diaries, 90210 & Supernatural have all been renewed.

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While I still think that The Secret Circle has a better chance at renewal than Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, after two consecutive 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings I can no longer consider it "likely to be renewed" and it's now down to a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

And while The L.A. Complex may have a long and happy life in Canada, after its six episodes run on the CW this spring, you'll never see it on The CW again because of its dreadful ratings. I've also moved Ringer to "certain cancellation". As now the lowest rated CW show on any night (save TLAC), it's done.

This is the last "regular" CW Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Harris

    There is no way that Gossip Girl is getting a full 22 episode pickup. It’s ratings are abysmal and by next year it will almost certainly be under a million total viewers by mid season of a full season. It’s 13 and done.

    Netflix isn’t going to pick up Nikita, as much as I would absolutely love for them to. The CW may still renew it.

    With how poor Secret Circle has been, especially given it’s lead-in, it is in just as much danger as any other of CW’s poor performing shows.

    One thing everyone can agree on: Ringer is dead as a doornail :-(

  • Harris

    I should also point out, LA Complex is even deader than Ringer.

  • Keri

    @Dan

    Thanks Dan! Considering HOD’s crazy timeslot (it’s competition is The Voice, Dancing With The Stars, and CBS super Monday lineup) I think it has a really good shot at another season. Fingers crossed anyway!

  • Peter Mazz

    PREDICTIONS (2012 – 2013):
    Arrow – 3.47
    The Selection – 2.59
    The Carrie Diaries – 2.06 – (Ratings dropping since episode 11)
    The Beauty And The Beast – 2.13
    Cult – 1.83

  • Biz

    Too bad The CW didn’t try to run Ringer on Wednesday’s, I have a strong feeling it would of done so much better their. I mean the LA Complex went up in total viewers for a rerun. If that doesn’t prove the CW that that slot is as dead as a doornial for new shows. Then the CW is dumb as a ringer. I hope they cancel TSC and maybe Nikita and keep HOD at least, it’s the most stable. Ringer is such a long shot for getting the pity renewal, hopefully the CW will try an old stable show in that slot. But knowing them they won’t realize that their old shows aren’t helping their new shows as lead ins and they’ll probably put another new show in that slot.

  • Davis

    @everyone predicting a full network “revamp” (more than 4 pilots)

    Do you know how expensive that would be? Theres no way CW will “re-vamp” the whole network, not only because of the money but also because it may seem like a good idea but it would actually be a PR nightmare. Also- beauty and the beast sounds laughably bad. I would say keep RINGER over that certain mess! Other CW pilots I predict will not see the light of day- the selection, first cut, and Joey Dakota.

  • Dan

    Gossip Girl should only get a 13 episodes final season and this is coming from a fan who has never missed an episode. As much as I love the show, it’s time to end. I think a 13 episode send off is perfect. Also, it would upset me if both 90210 and Supernatural had their final seasons either. Again, huge fan of all these shows, but they just seem stale to me at this point. They aren’t boring, but I would rather them end now on creative high notes than continue for more seasons.

  • Melanie

    Well, if we don’t hear pretty soon that Gossip Girl has a new showrunner, I’m going to start thinking it will be cancelled after all.

    I think TSC has been a big disappointment. I think the CW launched it behind TVD with the hope that it would be strong enough to move to an anchor position for next season. It hasn’t done that. I think that the production made an error in not crossing over with TVD. To me its just a weak show showing no momentum at all. If the pilots are strong, I believe it will be gone.

    Here’s my Schedule for next fall:

    Monday all new fantasy/procedural night
    Arrow
    Beauty & the Beast

    Tuesday all new girl’s night
    Carrie Diaries
    First Cut

    Wednesday the Dawn Ostroff Memorial night
    90210
    ANTM/ Gossip Girl (13 episodes)

    Thursday fantasy love/action night
    Vampire Diaries
    The Selection

    Friday action night
    Nikita
    Supernatural

    Midseason or Schedule Spackle
    Cult (13 episodes)
    Hart of Dixie (13 episodes)
    some other crappy reality show to be named later

  • SS

    The Voice Results, Dancing With The Stars Results, New Girl, and Raising Hope (Ringer) (12-13 Share)
    Second half of The Voice and Dancing With The Stars, Two and A Half Men, House and Mike and Molly (HOD)(15 Share)
    I really don’t know why Tuesdays at 9 is cursed, but for some reason when a show goes in that time slot. We tend to think it’s going to get cancelled and well we haven’t been wrong yet!

  • Mickey 1.0

    I think the CW should renew all the bubble shows, HoD, Nikita, TSC, GG and Ringer.

    That way I would be certain Supernatural would remain one of the network’s highest rated shows and get a renewal for S9. ;)

    (Yes, I know that would run the network into the ground for affiliate renewals in 2016, but Supernatural would be over by then anyway.)

    Very selfish idea, but it works for me. :)

  • ghj

    Arrow from Friday
    Cult from Wednesday mid season
    The Selection from Monday,Thrusday or Thursday
    The First Cut from Monday or Tuesday
    The Beauty & The Beast from Thursday
    The Carrie Diaries from Monday or Wednesday
    Shelter from Monday or Tuesday
    Joey Dakota from Wednesday

  • Rachel

    @Davis
    Glad I’m not the only one that doesn’t think The Selection will make it.

  • Gus

    Aside from The Vampire Diaries and Supernatural, all CW shows are just plain underwhelming. And those two shows just mentioned have seen their ratings erode in the past few weeks. TSC is indeed a toss up now, but I think it will return for next season. But if TPTB want to make a statement it will go along with Gossip Girl and 90210. But as it stands Hart Of Dixie, Ringer, and Nikita are ready for the outhouse.

  • IsraelRuiz

    MONDAY
    8. Arrow (New Series)
    9. The Selection (New Series)

    TUESDAY
    8. Shelter (New Series)
    9. 9O21O

    WEDNESDAY
    8. Cult (New Series Midseason) / Gossip Girl (Final Midseason)
    9. America’s Next Top Model / Hart of Dixie (Midseason)

    THURSDAY
    8. The Vampire Diaries
    9. Beauty & Beast (New Series)

    FRIDAY
    8. The Secret Circle
    9. Supernatural

  • ghj

    IsraelRuiz
    I Think that you right and it’s the great idea if The CW think like you for the next season

  • Rachel

    I think the best shows for the CW to pick up next season are TCD, Arrow, First Cut, and B&tB/Cult and Shelter as midseason replacements.

    There seems to be a lot of faux buzz surrounding the Selection. If it weren’t for The Hunger Games no one would care about it. Arrow and TCD are already expensive, I can’t imagine this show being much better. The network doesn’t need all these fantasy shows anyway.

  • rob60990

    Monday
    8:00- First Cut (NEW DRAMA)
    9:00- Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    8:00- 90210
    9:00- Carries Diaries (NEW DRAMA)

    Wednesday
    8:00- Gossip Girl (NEW NIGHT, FINAL SEASON)
    9:00- ANTM

    Thursday
    8:00- Vampire Diaries
    9:00- The Selection (NEW DRAMA)

    Friday
    8:00- Arrow (NEW DRAMA)
    9:00- Supernatural

    Midseason: Cult, Beauty & The Beast

    Cancelled: Everything not mentioned and that includes Secret Circle. Why delay the inevitable?

  • rob60990

    @Michael, this site doesn’t really tolerate insulting other posters.

  • Peter Mazz

    With this schedule i’m leaving the death slots (Tuesday 9:00 p.m slot and friday 8:00 slot for old shows or in their final seasons)

    MONDAY (TEENAGE DRAMA NIGHT)
    8:00 – 90210
    9:00 – The Carrie Diaries

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – The Beauty And The Beast
    9:00 – America’s Next Top Model

    I think that they should put ANTM on the Tuesday death slot…. you know, with just 2 more cycles, they have nothing to lose.

    WEDNESDAY: (FANTASY NIGHT)
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – The Secret Circle

    I think that Arrow as a lead in for TSC will make TSC’S Ratings higher (like 0.9) Also, i think that TSC Season finale will end with a 0.7

    THURSDAY: (SUCCESFUL SAGAS NIGHT)
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – The Selection

    FRIDAY: (HORROR SHOWS)
    8:00 – Cult(13)/Gossip Girl (Final 13)
    9:00 – Supernatural

    MIDSEASON:
    Gossip Girl (13 episode season)

    SUMMER:
    Shelter
    First Cut
    Joey Dakota
    Some crappy realites

    SUMMER SCHEDULE:

    MONDAY:
    8:00 – 90210 Repeats
    9:00 – Shelter

    TUESDAY:
    8:00 – The Beauty And The Beast Repeats
    9:00 – First Cut

    WEDNESDAY:
    8:00 – Star Next Door
    9:00 – The Catalina

    THURSDAY:
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries Repeats
    9:00 – Joey Dakota

    FRIDAY:
    8:00 – Supernatural Repeats
    9:00 – Breaking Pointe

    PLUS——————————————————-

    CW CANCELLED/ENDED SHOWS (2009 – 2012)

    2009 – 2010 SEASON:

    1. The Beautiful Life (2 Episodes)
    2. Melrose Place (18 EPisodes)

    2010 – 2011 SEASON:
    1. Life Unexpected (13 Episodes)
    2. Hellcats (22 Episodes)
    3. Smallville (Final Season – 22 Episodes)

    2011 – 2012 SEASON: (PROBABLY):
    1. H8R (3 Episodes)
    2. Remodeled (4 Episodes)
    3. One Tree Hill (Final Season – 13 Episodes)
    4. Ringer (22 Episodes)
    5. Nikita (22 Episodes)
    6. Hart of Dixie (22 Episodes)

    Alot of shows (scripted and unscripted) will be cancelled this year…. After Ringer, Nikita and HoD are next… but still.. HoD still has a 40% chance to survive.

  • Mark Wood

    Rachel

    Yes I seriously dislike Secret Circle. And I am all for it being cancelled.

    But as a statistician, it annoys me beyond measure for people to use data in accurately.

    Retention used to be used a lot and they used the “final” numbers that are released. But those finals numbers for decades were more then 99% live only viewers. Timeshifted viewing registered at under 1%.

    But with the creation and adoption of DVR, really throws a monkey wrench in making a “retention” analysis with “final numbers”.

    Look at this example, two years ago VD started and SPN was its lead out (and when even fewer people used DVRs).

    I only have live data from the last two weeks of that season. But all season we heard about how SPN’s retention wasn’t good enough. That it wasn’t holding the a high percentage of viewers who turned into VD. All judge by using final numbers.

    Live Same day adults 18-49 For the last two weeks of the season.

    May 6th
    VD 1.6
    SPN 1.2

    May 13th
    VD 1.7
    SPN 1.3

    Not terrible retention, but certainly not good retention either.

    But then we got live only data. The data of the people who actually turn on their tv’s watch a live broadcast see the commercials for the next show and stick with that network (ie you can’t program your tv to only show you one show, like a season pass. You can’t forward through commercials, ect, ect)

    Here are the live only demos for those same weeks
    May 6th
    VD 1.1
    SPN 1.0

    May 13th
    VD 1.1
    SPN 1.1

    Now that, that is great retention of an 8pm show. What killed SPN was that it didn’t have as high of same day DVR push that VD got, even though both shows over the full period recorded of 7 days gained percentage wise within 3% of the same amount of gain in full DVR use. The difference is that VD had more of its DVR use that same night, while SPN had more of its use after the night ended.

    And the 8pm show (Nielsen does post about this every year and has the season average for all broadcast shows) does have on average a higher percentage of DVR use that night then any other hour.

    Since for most of this season we have had Live demos reported, why people don’t use that data to actually accurately report factors like retention just boggles my mind.

    Its very basic stats, you use don’t use materials that are stacked (ie not even) for making comparisons. Live Broadcast is a level playing field. Same Day DVR use isn’t.

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