CW: 'The Secret Circle' Falls To A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.44
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.82
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 1.01
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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5/3 Update: The Vampire Diaries, 90210 & Supernatural have all been renewed.

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While I still think that The Secret Circle has a better chance at renewal than Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, after two consecutive 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings I can no longer consider it "likely to be renewed" and it's now down to a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

And while The L.A. Complex may have a long and happy life in Canada, after its six episodes run on the CW this spring, you'll never see it on The CW again because of its dreadful ratings. I've also moved Ringer to "certain cancellation". As now the lowest rated CW show on any night (save TLAC), it's done.

This is the last "regular" CW Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Freyja

    The competition today is nothing like it was 6 years ago when shows were getting over 20 million viewers like Grey’s and CSI or even Idol. Now the only show to get that much is NCIS.

    I will say HOD went in as the underdog everyone counted it out, but it proved it can hang even with a crappy lead in.. While TSC floundered and SPN beat it on more than one occasion. No way should a Friday show beat M-Th minus TVD. Especially a show that gets twice as much promotion and a good lead in…

    I still think SPN is way to strong to be on Friday, sadly were going to be stuck there for the rest of our seasons. Dawn put both Smallville and SPN there to die, and well we proved her wrong now didn’t we. ;)

    Even though they might be considering 6 shows, I doubt they will pick up all 6.. Most likely 3 maybe 4, with the Cult being at midseason since it’s a 13 episode show.

    TCD(even though I wish for it to be DOA)

    Arrow

    The Selection (again I wish for it to be DOA, if it was more like Hunger Games than the Bachelor I would be ok with it)

    Possibly B&TB and The Cult for midseason.

    I would rather see B&TB over The Selection though.

  • Gaius Bolling

    I think Secret Circle should go, and i like the show. If it did not have the vampire diaries lead in it would be doing just as bad as ringer and hart of dixie. it has squandered that lead in all season. even though it wasn’t hitting these lows until recently, i have seen it steadily declining and bleeding that lead in for awhile. i don’t think it can survive on its own

  • Brandy

    I want VD,SC,GG,HoD,90210 renewed, the rest can be cancelled.Ringer,Nikita ,LaComplex should be first based on demo/ratings.

  • kevin

    Hart of Dixie is a dark horse of getting renewed as does The Secret Circle but Ringer may soon get their “death wish” as well as Nikita and The L.A. Complex is on the road towards cancellation.

  • Melody

    Here are my predictions, completely based on my personal bias:

    Renewed: Supernatural, Vampire Diaries, Hart of Dixie and Nikita
    Everything else – canceled!!

    Why? This network needs an overhaul. I realize that HoD and Nikita probably should be canceled based on ratings, but I like them so I say they stay! Today, I am a one of the powers that be.

  • MarcJames87

    GOSSIP GIRL W18-34 – 1.3

    HART OF DIXIE W18-34 – 1.1

  • MarcJames87

    TV fans follow me on Twitter @Deano_1987

  • Dan

    The CW is a terribly low rated network. Last season cancellations and renewals it were easy to predict and I wrongly predicted OTRH would be axed in favor of Hellcats. This year is even harder but I can gather this.

    Supernatural, ANTM, 90210, and Vampire Diaries are definites along with a final season for Gossip Girl. GG ratings have been low but since CW is nice enough to give Smallville and OTH final seasons, my guess is they will do so for GG.

    Despite Secret Circle falling, it still rates well after Vampire Diaries and may very well air fridays next season after Supernatural.

    That being said it may be two and done for Nikita which doesnt have much going for it. CW will have to give it two more seasons to reach syndication and they may not have room on their schedule for it.

    Hart of Dixie could go either way. Its consistent after GG but CW could easily replace it with a new drama next season.

    Ringer and LA Complex are dead. Ringer has aired all of its eps and LA Complex is imported from Canada so the rest of the eps will air on CW but the second season will likely be broadcast on another channel in the US.

  • Tessa

    People are still pushing the idea that next year would be the final season of Supernatural? Why? Is the show down performing? Does the cast want out? Does the CW have too many successful new shows that it can do without it? Does it occupy a very sought after time slot? Give me a reason that, with the current state of the network, makes sense (and no, it’s old and wrinkly isn’t a good reason considering they got bupkis to replace it with and this is a network that let Smallville run for ten seasons and OTH for nine.)

  • Dahne

    @Bizarro – I wouldn’t count Ringer’s iTunes sales as a big factor in renewal. It was on sale for $10 for the season at one point so people were willing to check it out. I have every Ringer episode on my account but I haven’t watched any of them yet beyond what I watched of the show live. I expect to watch in the summer and I would bet there were others like me.

  • Mickey 1.0

    @Tessa
    it’s old and wrinkly

    Supernatural ages like the Impala: “She’ll still be badass when she’s 40.” ;)

  • WB

    How did The CW ever get this low!? omg! What happened to making 3-4 million viewers?

    I think The CW should start picking up black sitcoms (not too many of them on tv), like maybe working with Tyler Perry or someone! or it could be any type of sitcom!

  • Dahne

    @Michael – At first you had my sympathies but now you are just as bad as the people you continually rag on. If this is showing humility and integrity, we have two very different views on what these two words mean, especially when you keep bringing people’s family into this. You are spamming us with your hateful and attacking comments just as much as the people you claim to be superior to. For the sake of the rest of the people on this thread, I would ask that you, Sid, and Dan declare a truce and just ignore each other from now on. At the risk of sounding haughty, you are ALL acting like toddlers.

    Note – I am saying this as someone that has no vested interest one way or another about Ringer. I don’t watch the show but I’m all for giving SMG another shot.

  • WB

    I love SUPERNATURAL (representing The WB lol ! )

  • Dahne

    @Tessa and @Mickey 1.0 – I think the chance of Supernatural ending at season 8 only makes sense if Jared decides he doesn’t want to put in such long hours with a new baby. As this doesn’t seem to be the case, the only other thing keeping Supernatural from going to season 9 (unless all the pilots hit higher demos than VD) would be if contract negotiations don’t go well. I would expect Supernatural season 10 to be the final season far more than season 8. Although season 9 could very well be the end too.

  • Sid

    I think it’d really cool if Rules of Engagement could migrate to The CW is CBS passes on another Season.

    I mean CBS would pay for everything so there wouldn’t be that much of an issue?

  • Lana

    According to multiple sources, the CW has quite a few pilots that are likely to be picked up since the test screenings for them have been going so well. There is a wide range of new shows that will probably have a higher success rate with viewers opposed to the low rated shows that are currently on their boards. Therefore I think they’ll probably drop Nikita, Ringer, and The Secret Circle which, based on the descriptions for the pilots that they’re screening now, is a good thing! Get rid of the bad written boring crap and replace it with some fresh entertainment that is actually entertaining!

  • Restless

    @Mickey 1.0
    They should put Supernatural in the Tuesday 9 pm deathslot. The Winchesters know how to deal with a curse.
    Supernatural ages like the Impala: “She’ll still be badass when she’s 40.”

    You are on a roll. Twice you made me laugh.

    I agree with @Dahne, @Tessa, etc. Pretty obvious they aren’t ending Supernatural at season eight. Much as people talk about ending on a high note, I really don’t see them hiring a new successful show runner and staff just for a final season blowout.

  • rob60990

    @Michael, I posted to you yesterday that was NOT me. That was someone pretending to be me. I apologized to you for that. You need to calm the hell down.

  • RS

    I’ve figured out a way to save Secret Circle. Don’t hate me, HofD fans because I’ve watched that one and it was OK. But SC can survive and actually thrive on Fridays with SPN. I, SPN’s total fan, would have given SC a try if not for the word-of-mouth early on. I heard it was totally tweeny, and badly written and acted. I heard that adults were laughing at parts that weren’t meant to be funny. I heard this from multiple sources, and I didn’t care enough to check it out for myself (unlike Ringer, which I really wanted to like and gave it 4 or 5 chances). But now I hear that it has gotten better, with a more adult story line. That evidences potential. But I’ll not watch it or anything else in its current spot because I am in love with Persons of Interest. The problem with a highly serialized show that starts out bad and gets better is that people will have to sit through the drek to understand what comes later.
    Until – ABC’s inspiration – Revenge. So Mr. Ped. (by the way major kudos on how you handled SPN – a new showrunner who we knew was a great writer) sit down with some intelligent adults and pin point the place in the SC series that adults can actually start watching it. Do a Revenge style hour synopsis up until that point for catch-up over the summer. Air the remaining episodes over the summer. Be honest in your ads – its better now and getting better next season. Pair it with SPN on Friday. If you actually hire some good writers and up the target age to older than 15, you could snag the SPN audience and create a stay-at-home Friday such that the network had with Smallville and SPN.

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