Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Fringe (F) | renewed | 0.50 |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter* | canceled | 0.61 |
| Breaking In | canceled | 0.66 |
| The Cleveland Show | renewed | 0.70 |
| Allen Gregory * | canceled | 0.72 |
| The Finder (some F) |  |
0.83 |
| Raising Hope | renewed | 0.88 |
| Bob's Burgers |  |
0.88 |
| Terra Nova * | canceled | 0.90 |
| Alcatraz* | |
0.93 |
| American Dad | renewed | 0.98 |
| Napoleon Dynamite* | |
1.06 |
| Bones | renewed | 1.06 |
| House | final season | 1.10 |
| Touch | |
1.22 |
| The Simpsons | renewed | 1.22 |
| New Girl | renewed | 1.35 |
| Glee | renewed | 1.37 |
| Family Guy | renewed | 1.39 |
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Recipe for Touch being a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation:
- 1 part ratings that have fallen in all but one week of its run
- 1 part Fringe renewal, removing an hour from the 2012-13 schedule for 13 episodes
Mix and wait for Fan Excuse Bingo play to begin!
Those who'll jump to play the "Fox can't cancel all their rookie dramas" square, may wish to refresh their memory about what happened last season.
This is the last "regular" Fox Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.
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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
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- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012 - - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
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- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012 -
- certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
In other news…game time!
FRINGE – 49
RAISING HOPE – 32
ALCATRAZ – 33
TOUCH – 38
Read an article on the upfronts last week where it was speculated that FOX was holding off “their inventory” until mid season. That tells me they havent a clue what they are doing based on current ratings or the new pilots are as bad as this year’s pilots. un-oh
If this is the game I think it is…
FRINGE – 50 (+1)
RAISING HOPE – 32
ALCATRAZ – 32 (-1)
TOUCH – 38
I figured it should have the same chance as Alcatraz, but debated whether having both “certain” or “likely” and likely won out.
Tough call on that one.
@Polar Bear – the problem with that is that the kind of audience that would appreciate and understand Touch is pretty much the exact opposite of the American Idol audience. It’s not like The Voice leading into Smash, it’s the equivalent of Miley Cyrus opening for Andrea Bocelli in concert.
@tvfreak
Please remind us how we’re doing the points in the game here. Is it still +3, +2, -3, -2 with four shows left in the game? And remind us of the rules again about not cheating, trivia questions, etc. Thanks.
Looks like Napoleon Dynamite is the only thing that can possibly be renewed. I mean come on. It did better than ALL of Foxs sitcoms besides New Girl.
@Rebecca: Oh yes. Thanks for that.
Voting in the Elimination Game is conducted in +3, +2, -2 and -3 until only three shows are left, in which case it is +3 and -3 only. If a show makes it to 100 points it enters the Victor’s Village, where it stays until only one other show remains to join it in the Winners’ Circle, where both shows are reset to 10 points and votes are conducted in +1 and -1 until an Ultimate Winner is declared.
Also, if I don’t recognize you as a regular user I will have to disqualify your vote unless you swear on your grave not to cheat (or if @Julia can verify that you don’t use sock puppets to post, but that’s only done on her own time), and if you answer a trivia question related to that network.
So, @psychic, your vote is disregarded until you meet the above requirements. Your trivia question: In the pilot of Fringe, what flavor of pudding did Walter call dreadful?
besides Touch.
I still think Touch will probably be given another chance. I don’t think it’ll get a full season order like I previously believed, though.
Monday
8:00 – Glee
9:00 – Bones/Touch
Tuesday
8:00 – Raising Hope
8:30 – Rebounding
9:00 – New Girl
9:30 – Mindy Kaling sitcom
Wednesday
8:00 – The X Factor/American Idol
9:30 – Like Father/American Idol
Thursday
8:00 – The X Factor/American Idol
9:00 – Mastermind/The Asset
Friday
8:00 – reality
9:00 – Fringe/Bones
@TVfreak:
Butterscotch.
And it really is awful.
@ Lane
Fox must not have high standard if they want to renew .9 dramas like Fringe. But cancel 2.1 dramas like Terra Nova. Even though Fox said they made money off of Terra Nova and lost on Fringe.
Where did they say they made money off of Terra Nova?
Though I wouldn’t be surprised if the licensing fee got cut so much for Fringe’s final season that they’ll be making money off of it now…
Finally
. That’s where TOUCH belongs for now…
So nice to see ‘renewed’ after Fringe
I think that, besides the X-Files, Fringe must be the only FOX show to get renewed TWICE in a Friday night ^_^
Also [in the game], you can only vote once every 24 hours. @psychic, once vetted/approved for the game, be sure to redo the vote so it’s -3, +3, -2, and +2. We won’t be down to the +1 and -1 until the final challenge (when tvfreak says so).
I just learned that Flashpoint is ending.
I feel like throwing something.
@psychic: I can imagine (about the butterscotch, of course.) Correct! Now please swear not to cheat.
Look at that STUPID Fringe renewal after a long list of “cancelled” shows that were up to fifty percent higher in the ratings!
Brings home how idiotic Fox’s decision was.
At .93 I’d actually give Alcatraz a shot, despite the show being utter crap.
Actually, at this moment I have to go, so no game for me.
In other news: Death to Butterscotch pudding!
Well said regarding Touch Bill, didn’t agree with Robert placing it at 4 smiley faces, 3 suited it best as it has gone from 12 million to 6 million in 7 episodes.