Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Fringe (F) | renewed | 0.50 |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter* | canceled | 0.61 |
| Breaking In | canceled | 0.66 |
| The Cleveland Show | renewed | 0.70 |
| Allen Gregory * | canceled | 0.72 |
| The Finder (some F) |  |
0.83 |
| Raising Hope | renewed | 0.88 |
| Bob's Burgers |  |
0.88 |
| Terra Nova * | canceled | 0.90 |
| Alcatraz* | |
0.93 |
| American Dad | renewed | 0.98 |
| Napoleon Dynamite* | |
1.06 |
| Bones | renewed | 1.06 |
| House | final season | 1.10 |
| Touch | |
1.22 |
| The Simpsons | renewed | 1.22 |
| New Girl | renewed | 1.35 |
| Glee | renewed | 1.37 |
| Family Guy | renewed | 1.39 |
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Recipe for Touch being a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation:
- 1 part ratings that have fallen in all but one week of its run
- 1 part Fringe renewal, removing an hour from the 2012-13 schedule for 13 episodes
Mix and wait for Fan Excuse Bingo play to begin!
Those who'll jump to play the "Fox can't cancel all their rookie dramas" square, may wish to refresh their memory about what happened last season.
This is the last "regular" Fox Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.
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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
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- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012 - - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
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- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012 -
- certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
In defense of Touch and it’s ratings in comparison to Terra Nova or Alcatraz, there has to be an effect to premiering so late in the season. A lot of ratings seem to be going down now with spring in the air. Touch’s current mediocre ratings are more impressive than the same rating during the more regular viewing season.
“Of course Terra Nova can be uncancelled and Fringe cancelled.”
That’s just crazy talk.
MONDAY:
8pm – Bones
9pm – Untitled Kevin Williamson
TUESDAY:
8pm – Little Brother
8:30pm – Raising Hope
9pm – New Girl
9:30pm – Untitled Mindy Kaling
WEDNESDAY:
8pm – The X Factor
THURSDAY:
8pm – The X Factor
9pm – Glee
FRIDAY:
8pm – Kitchen Nightmares
9pm – Fringe
MIDSEASON:
Ben Fox is My Manny (joining the Tuesday comedy block)
The Goodwin Games (when Idol goes to 90 minutes)
Untitled Karyn Usher (when Glee goes on a hiatus)
Guilty (when Bones goes on a hiatus)
Touch (since it’s been said that the Kevin Williamson drama will only be 15 episodes a season, Touch will replace it when it ends)
“Touch’s current mediocre ratings are more impressive than the same rating during the more regular viewing season.”
What is almost certainly worrying Fox more is not the absolute ratings for Touch, although that has to be some worry, but that the ratings keep falling, and have yet to find a floor.
Monday
8pm Glee
9pm UNTITLED KARYN USHER PROJECT w/Angela Bassett and Rick Schroder
Tuesday
8pm PRODIGY/BULLY
8:30 Raising Hope
9pm New Girl
9:30 THE GOODWIN GAMES
Wednesday
8pm X-Factor
Thursday
8pm X-Factor results
9pm UNTITLED KEVIN WILLIAMSON PROJECT w/Kevin Bacon
Friday
8pm Bones
9pm Fringe/Kitchen Nightmares
I think it’s a stupid mistake on Fox to air Touch in the same time slot as POI.
So basically, Touch’s ratings fall a little so you decide to take back your prediction for a renewal and replace it with a “The f— do I know”?
@RSH Why does Fringe renewel bother you so much? Its only 13 episodes then its over. If you dont like it dont watch.
@Tyson
I think it’s a stupid mistake on Fox to air Touch in the same time slot as POI.
They gave it the best lead-in on the network. There’s absolutely no better spot for it. If it had aired on Mondays, like it was supposed to, people would just be whining about Bones being a weak lead-in.
@tscchope: I seriously don’t understand why you insist on reminding me of that fact. I already know RH and Fringe are coming back. Unless you’re just trying to remind me of the good news? Either way, please either explain why you keep saying that or just stop doing it.
Fantasy Schedule Below:
Monday – Bones final season, Masterminds
Tuesday – Glee final season, New Girl, Let It Go
Wednesday – XF/Idol (90 mins.), RH/Prodigy Bully
Thursday – XF/Idol Results, Touch
Friday – Alcatraz, Fringe final season/Kitchen Nightmares
Sunday – The Cleveland Show (7pm), American Dad, Karyn Usher Project, The Simpsons, Family Guy/Bob’s Burgers
POI is no big hit. Touch lost all of its audience on its own. It would have sunk faster on Mondays.
If it were up to me, Touch would be canceled; the show not only failed to click with me, it actively irritated me every moment that I was watching it. I’ve rarely seen a bigger waste of a powerful cast and high production values on TV. At least a new show would have a *chance* of not being awful.
That said, I could see Fox rolling the dice and giving it a renewal anyway if they’re desperate. They’d have to be pretty desperate, though, because I think its ratings will continue to drop this season and would be even worse in a second season; it almost certainly wouldn’t get more than 13 episodes next year if they kept it. If Fox wants a hit (and it does), Touch will *never be that hit*, and won’t even be a solid performer for them. I guess it all depends on whether Fox thinks it’s a better deal to drop it now, or to eat the loss and let it coast for a while longer before mercy-killing it.
What on earth will fox do with napoleon dynamite, theres no room in the schedule for it, unless they try intergrating live action and animation together.
@Alex Roggio, Far more logical to look at continuing declines in Touch ratings and ignore them?
Monday
8:00- Bones
9:00- Untitled Kevin Williamson Project
Tuesday
8:00- Little Brother (NEW COMEDY)
8:30- Raising Hope (NEW TIME)
9:00- New Girl
9:30- Untitled Mindy Kaling Comedy (NEW COMEDY)
Wednesday
8:00- X Factor
Thursday
8:00- X Factor Results
9:00- Glee (NEW NIGHT & TIME)
Friday
8:00- Kitchen Nightmares
9:00- Fringe
Sunday (do they have any animation comedies in development?)
7:00- Animation reruns/OT
8:00- Simpsons
8:30- Cleveland Show
9:00- Family Guy
9:30- American Dad
Midseason: The Asset, Guilty, Goodwin Games, Rebounding.
@Alex Roggio
@Fall a little
Touch Episode 1: 12 million viewers
Touch Episode 7: 6.43 million viewers
Clearly we all have a different definition of little to you, as this by all count is a huge drop in only 7 episodes. I would go as far as to say the Touch ratings are nose diving, dropping off a cliff. Flat lining almost.
If people don’t understand why this show is a bubble show after losing about 50 percent of its starting audience. I don’t know what else to say.
I like Touch, don’t get me wrong but saying the ratings have dropped a little is denial.
@rob60990
Way to copy my fall schedule….
Touch is destined to get renewed but The Finder & Napoleon Dynamite are on the verge of cancellation soon.
Come on Alcatraz! I knew Touch would fall fast, and now an Alcatraz renewal for Fridays to complement Fringe must look like the right thing to do for Fox!
However, looking at it objectively, I don’t agree with your assessments.
I’d still have Touch as likely renewal for now despite its trajectory, at least for the moment still, as its ratings average is still too high and Fox needs to renew *something* for next year and this has Kiefer. If the announcement came today, I’d be surprised if it were cancelled instead of renewed. However, give it another week or so if no news comes and let’s see where it’s at then.
I’d also have Napoleon Dynamite as likely renewal, so I think you’re being too safe there.
I’d have Alcatraz as a toss up, so you may say I’m being too safe there.
But I’d have The Finder as certain cancellation, so I think you’re being too safe there. So you see, in who gets to call who the “hedge-better”, I win this round!
And to finish it out, like you I’d also have Bob’s Burgers as a toss up.
I like Keifer Sutherland but I find TOUCH boring….I can’t pay attention. I would prefer if Alcatraz got renewed over TOUCH.