Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Prime Suspect* | canceled | 0.47 |
| Bent* |  |
0.52 |
| Best Friends Forever* | canceled | 0.58 |
| The Firm* | canceled | 0.61 |
| Harry's Law | |
0.62 |
| Free Agents * | canceled | 0.66 |
| The Playboy Club * | canceled | 0.67 |
| Chuck (F)* | final season complete | 0.69 |
| Awake | |
0.77 |
| Are You There, Chelsea?* |  |
0.90 |
| Grimm (F) | renewed | 0.93 |
| Whitney* |  |
0.96 |
| 30 Rock | |
0.99 |
| Community | |
0.99 |
| Parenthood* | |
1.00 |
| Up All Night* |  |
1.01 |
| Law & Order: SVU |  |
1.10 |
| Parks & Recreation | |
1.10 |
| Smash | renewed | 1.51 |
| The Office | |
1.59 |
-
Once again, if your favorite show is terribly rated, its lucky to have it on N-B-C!
NBC's ratings devastation has reached the point that the three headlined shows are likely to be renewed, even though they have averaged less than a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating in their new episodes since January 1. The cancellation bear can't believe it.
To put that in perspective, How To Be A Gentleman was pulled from the CBS schedule last Fall after two episodes that averaged a 2.6 rating, which is better than all NBC scripted shows have done since January 1 (and better than all but The Office last Fall).
This is the last "regular" NBC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
Game time!
COMMUNITY – 12
30 ROCK – 8
Since this thread’s game has already progressed to the Winners’ Circle, voting is conducted in +1 and -1 until an Ultimate Winner is declared.
Also, if I don’t recognize you as a regular user I will have to disqualify your vote unless you swear on your grave not to cheat (or if @Julia can verify that you don’t use sock puppets to post, but that’s only done on her own time), and if you answer a trivia question related to that network.
Lovin’ the bear picture! You should have used that one on the Fringe renewal! Bwahahahahahaha!
Also, wait 24 hours between votes in the game. Use one screen name only.
Wow I am shocked. The Nothing But Cancellations network is actually going to renew something?
Deadline’s saying that The New Normal and Save Me are nearing series pickup. The New Normal was basically a formality with Ryan Murphy behind it. I’m not a fan of his, so I don’t expect I’ll like it, but NBC would’ve been fools to pass on it. But I’m not thrilled about Save Me; the premise sounds pretty stupid. Obviously, a short little premise can’t really tell you if a show would be good or not. But I would’ve preferred a number of their other comedy pilots based on premise and/or people behind them. But better that than a multi-camera sitcom, I guess.
Normally I’d make a schedule now, but with the news that NBC’s going to be debuting at least two (or four, if the Deadline report is accurate), I really have no idea what kind of scheduling they’ll do. So I’ll just list my pickups and cancellations instead.
Cancel:
Whitney
Are You There, Chelsea?
Up All Night
Harry’s Law
Awake
Bent
Pick up:
Go On
The New Normal
Save Me/Happy Valley (if the Deadline report isn’t correct)
Friday Night Dinner
Animal Kingdom
1600 Penn
Hannibal
Chicago Fire
Revolution
County
Mockingbird Lane
Bill: Is there a chance Awake could be moved to another day, rather than being cancelled? It seems odd (to me) that they would place it on a day with comedies ahead of it…
@ Question
That doesn’t seem to do HF0 or Revenge too much harm…
@Michael: I know. Whiney is horrible. Once while waiting for Prime Suspect to start I watched the final minute of the Whiney that came before it, SO BLOODY AWFUL. The laugh track kept going off every five seconds, as if there was a sign over the audience’s heads reading, Laugh or Die!
@Concerned Citizen
My bets:
Cancellation:
Are you There, Chelsea? (2% chance of renewal)
Bent (2%)
BFF (0%
Up All Night (40%)
Whitney (45%)
Awake (4%)
Harry’s Law (20%)
Renewal:
Parenthood (80%)
Law and Order SVU (90%) (prob. Final Season)
Community (75%)
30 Rock (75%) (def. Final season)
The Office (98%) (prob. Final season)
Parks and Recreation (90%)
Pick-up (in addition to Go On/The New Normal/Save Me):
1600 Penn (95%)
Animal Kingdom (95%)
Chicago Fire (90%)
County (85%)
Downwardly Mobile (80%)
Nic and Jen (80%)
Midnight Sun (75%)
Buzz is too mixed on the rest to make any sort of positive/negative call.
The sad part is Whitney HAD a live audience…but there were one or two scenes where under normal circumstances (say, with a good show) the audience should have said “Awww” or applauded (during a proposal scene) quicker than they did. I felt a little bad for the actors then, lol. It wasn’t a happy scene like with Monica and Chandler on Friends, for example. Just bad. Still, I liked Whitney more than AYTC – and yet AYTC seemed to have the better finale IMO. I watched those two shows whenever I was out of other stuff to watch.
I’m only here for the facepalming cancellation bear.
The fact that The Firm, with a 0.5 rating, is 61% of NBC’s scripted average is embarrassing.
“The fact that The Firm, with a 0.5 rating, is 61% of NBC’s scripted average is embarrassing.”
That number was frozen at the point The Firm moved to Saturday. Once a show goes into burn off, I treat it as no longer being on the schedule, and I no longer include its ratings in my calculations.
Whitney is such a great show, and its so funny i hope it gets renewed.
I only care for P&R, Community, 30 rock and Parethood, they all need a renewal. I watched Up all night, but I could live without it.
Apparently there’ll only be one cycle of Biggest Loser next season instead of two.
NBC has to pick up a lot of pilots. They go through new shows fast. A lot of people still don’t know NBC just went through two new comedies on Wednesday night (Bent and BFF). So I wouldn’t let the number of pilots influence your predictions (I’m not talking to Bill, because he doesn’t and rightfully bases the predictions on ratings). I think NBC is just trying to stop the bleeding at this point. Before they can grow, they have to stop declining. If they can get some shows that hold steady, they’ve achieved their goal. Even The Voice and Smash just had series lows, so they have a long way to go. Some of the pilots do sound good though, including Hannibal.
COMMUNITY – 13 (+1)
30 ROCK – 7 (-1)
Chrisss: I’m not sure, but aren’t the comedies before HFO and Revenge doing better than the ones before Awake?
Edit on my last post, of course Hannibal has already been picked-up (didn’t even go through pilot season).