NBC: Low Rated, But Lucky; 'Community,' '30 Rock,' 'Whitney' Are Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Harry's Law :oops: 0.62
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.77
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.99
Community :) :) :) :) 0.99
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Smash renewed 1.51
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.59

-
Once again, if your favorite show is terribly rated, its lucky to have it on N-B-C!

NBC's ratings devastation has reached the point that the three headlined shows are likely to be renewed, even though they have averaged less than a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating in their new episodes since January 1. The cancellation bear can't believe it.

To put that in perspective, How To Be A Gentleman was pulled from the CBS schedule last Fall after two episodes that averaged a 2.6 rating, which is better than all NBC scripted shows have done since January 1 (and better than all but The Office last Fall).

This is the last "regular" NBC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    Lovin’ the bear picture! You should have used that one on the Fringe renewal! Bwahahahahahaha! :-)

  • Rebecca

    Also, wait 24 hours between votes in the game. Use one screen name only.

  • JC

    Wow I am shocked. The Nothing But Cancellations network is actually going to renew something?

  • Concerned Citizen

    Deadline’s saying that The New Normal and Save Me are nearing series pickup. The New Normal was basically a formality with Ryan Murphy behind it. I’m not a fan of his, so I don’t expect I’ll like it, but NBC would’ve been fools to pass on it. But I’m not thrilled about Save Me; the premise sounds pretty stupid. Obviously, a short little premise can’t really tell you if a show would be good or not. But I would’ve preferred a number of their other comedy pilots based on premise and/or people behind them. But better that than a multi-camera sitcom, I guess.

    Normally I’d make a schedule now, but with the news that NBC’s going to be debuting at least two (or four, if the Deadline report is accurate), I really have no idea what kind of scheduling they’ll do. So I’ll just list my pickups and cancellations instead.

    Cancel:
    Whitney
    Are You There, Chelsea?
    Up All Night
    Harry’s Law
    Awake
    Bent

    Pick up:
    Go On
    The New Normal
    Save Me/Happy Valley (if the Deadline report isn’t correct)
    Friday Night Dinner
    Animal Kingdom
    1600 Penn
    Hannibal
    Chicago Fire
    Revolution
    County
    Mockingbird Lane

  • Question

    Bill: Is there a chance Awake could be moved to another day, rather than being cancelled? It seems odd (to me) that they would place it on a day with comedies ahead of it…

  • chrisss

    @ Question

    That doesn’t seem to do HF0 or Revenge too much harm…

  • tvfreak

    @Michael: I know. Whiney is horrible. Once while waiting for Prime Suspect to start I watched the final minute of the Whiney that came before it, SO BLOODY AWFUL. The laugh track kept going off every five seconds, as if there was a sign over the audience’s heads reading, Laugh or Die!

  • Bern

    @Concerned Citizen

    My bets:

    Cancellation:
    Are you There, Chelsea? (2% chance of renewal)
    Bent (2%)
    BFF (0%
    Up All Night (40%)
    Whitney (45%)
    Awake (4%)
    Harry’s Law (20%)

    Renewal:
    Parenthood (80%)
    Law and Order SVU (90%) (prob. Final Season)
    Community (75%)
    30 Rock (75%) (def. Final season)
    The Office (98%) (prob. Final season)
    Parks and Recreation (90%)

    Pick-up (in addition to Go On/The New Normal/Save Me):
    1600 Penn (95%)
    Animal Kingdom (95%)
    Chicago Fire (90%)
    County (85%)
    Downwardly Mobile (80%)
    Nic and Jen (80%)
    Midnight Sun (75%)

    Buzz is too mixed on the rest to make any sort of positive/negative call.

  • Rebecca

    The sad part is Whitney HAD a live audience…but there were one or two scenes where under normal circumstances (say, with a good show) the audience should have said “Awww” or applauded (during a proposal scene) quicker than they did. I felt a little bad for the actors then, lol. It wasn’t a happy scene like with Monica and Chandler on Friends, for example. Just bad. Still, I liked Whitney more than AYTC – and yet AYTC seemed to have the better finale IMO. I watched those two shows whenever I was out of other stuff to watch.

  • Wilson

    I’m only here for the facepalming cancellation bear. :)

  • CrimTV

    The fact that The Firm, with a 0.5 rating, is 61% of NBC’s scripted average is embarrassing.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The fact that The Firm, with a 0.5 rating, is 61% of NBC’s scripted average is embarrassing.”

    That number was frozen at the point The Firm moved to Saturday. Once a show goes into burn off, I treat it as no longer being on the schedule, and I no longer include its ratings in my calculations.

  • RyanCanada

    Whitney is such a great show, and its so funny i hope it gets renewed.

  • Franko

    I only care for P&R, Community, 30 rock and Parethood, they all need a renewal. I watched Up all night, but I could live without it.

  • J.G.

    Apparently there’ll only be one cycle of Biggest Loser next season instead of two.

  • TVDude

    NBC has to pick up a lot of pilots. They go through new shows fast. A lot of people still don’t know NBC just went through two new comedies on Wednesday night (Bent and BFF). So I wouldn’t let the number of pilots influence your predictions (I’m not talking to Bill, because he doesn’t and rightfully bases the predictions on ratings). I think NBC is just trying to stop the bleeding at this point. Before they can grow, they have to stop declining. If they can get some shows that hold steady, they’ve achieved their goal. Even The Voice and Smash just had series lows, so they have a long way to go. Some of the pilots do sound good though, including Hannibal.

  • vern

    COMMUNITY – 13 (+1)
    30 ROCK – 7 (-1)

  • Question

    Chrisss: I’m not sure, but aren’t the comedies before HFO and Revenge doing better than the ones before Awake?

  • Bern

    Edit on my last post, of course Hannibal has already been picked-up (didn’t even go through pilot season).

  • xwiseguyx

    Whitney, Harry’s Law, The Voice and Smash are the only shows worthy of renewal on NBC… I don’t watch Harry’s Law but any show on NBC that gets over 7 million (up to 10 I believe) even if not in the demo, deserves a renewal. If only to allow the older demo some say in what gets renewed, I am rooting the hardest for this one…

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