NBC: Low Rated, But Lucky; 'Community,' '30 Rock,' 'Whitney' Are Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Harry's Law :oops: 0.62
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.77
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.99
Community :) :) :) :) 0.99
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Smash renewed 1.51
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.59

-
Once again, if your favorite show is terribly rated, its lucky to have it on N-B-C!

NBC's ratings devastation has reached the point that the three headlined shows are likely to be renewed, even though they have averaged less than a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating in their new episodes since January 1. The cancellation bear can't believe it.

To put that in perspective, How To Be A Gentleman was pulled from the CBS schedule last Fall after two episodes that averaged a 2.6 rating, which is better than all NBC scripted shows have done since January 1 (and better than all but The Office last Fall).

This is the last "regular" NBC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Georgie

    Community better be renewed!!!!!

  • FringeFan

    Its weird to see NBC once dominating now severely declining. I predict a recovery within a few years and if not then I forsee NBC having a lessening impact on Television and subsequently dedicating more time on movies.

  • Georgie

    2012-2013:

    Monday:
    8-10 pm The Voice(fall) The Biggest Loser (spring)
    10pm Smash(fall)/Hannibal (spring)

    Tuesday:
    8pm The Office (final season)
    8:30pm Community
    9pm Animal Kingdom
    9:30pm Go On
    10pm Midnight Sun

    Wednesday:
    8pm 30 Rock (final season)
    8:30pm Parks and rec
    9pm Chicago Fire
    10pm Law and Order: SVU

    Thursday
    8pm Friday Night Dinners
    8:30pm Downwardly Mobile
    9pm The New Normal
    9:30pm 1600 Penn
    10pm Parenthood

    Friday
    8pm Fear Factor
    9pm Grimm
    10pm Dateline

  • MJDB

    Possible 2012-13 Primetime Schedule:

    Sunday:

    7:00-Dateline
    8:00-Fear Factor
    9:00-Fashion Star/The Celebrity Apprentice

    Monday:

    8:00-New Drama/The Voice
    9:00-New Drama/The Voice
    10:00-Smash

    Tuesday:

    8:00-The Biggest Loser (2 Seasons)
    10:00-Parenthood

    Wednesday:

    8:00-Betty White’s Off Their Rockers
    8:30-New Comedy
    9:00-Whitney
    9:30-New Comedy
    10:00-Law and Order: SVU

    Thursday:

    8:00-Community
    8:30-30 Rock (Final Season)/New Comedy
    9:00-The Office (Final Season)
    9:30-Parks and Recreation
    10:00-New Drama

    Friday:

    8:00-New Drama
    9:00-Grimm
    10:00-Dateline

    Saturday:

    8:00-Drama Rerun
    9:00-Comedy Rerun
    9:30-Comedy Rerun
    10:00-Drama Rerun

  • Justin121

    NBC is finally going the CW route and premiering shows before premiere week.

    Yet, somehow, they’re gonna screw it up. I just know it.

    Community, 30 Rock, The Office, Parks & Recreation.

    Same old failing line up. *sigh*

  • Julie

    I’m still hoping (while wearing my rose-coloured glasses) for a miracle for Awake.

  • Kenny

    Who did Whitney blow??????

  • The Other Tony

    My proposed NBC fall schedule for 2012-23:

    ** obviously, new shows premiering in the fall would be given a Back-Nine order if successful, or cancelled (not extended beyond their initial 13) if they bomb

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Sing-Off (fall) / The Voice (midseason)
    10:00 – Smash (split season: fall/spring) / Hannibal (midseason – 13 episodes)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – The Biggest Loser (fall/spring) / Notorious (midseason at 9pm – 8 episodes)
    10:00 – The Frontier (fall) / Chicago Fire (midseason – 8 episodes)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The New Normal (fall) / 30 Rock (midseason)
    8:30 – Go On (fall) / Save Me (midseason – 13 episodes)
    9:00 – Law & Order: SVU
    10:00 – County (fall) / Midnight Sun (midseason – 13 episodes)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Community
    8:30 – 1600 Penn (fall) / Animal Kingdom (midseason – 13 episodes)
    9:00 – The Office
    9:30 – Parks & Recreation (fall/spring) / Friday Night Dinner (winter – 13 episodes)
    10:00 – Parenthood (split season: fall/spring) / Beautiful People (midseason – 8 episodes)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Fear Factor / Who Do You Think You Are? / Who’s Still Standing?
    9:00 – Grimm
    10:00 – Revolution (fall) / Mockingbird Lane or Harry’s Law (midseason – 13 episodes for either)

    SATURDAY
    8:00 – ENCORES

    SUNDAY
    7:00 – Sunday Night Football (fall) / Dateline NBC
    8:00 – Sunday Night Football (fall) / Downwardly Mobile (midseason – 13 episodes)
    8:30 – Sunday Night Football (fall) / Whitney (midseason – 13 episodes)
    9:00 – Sunday Night Football (fall) / The Celebrity Apprentice (midseason)

  • chrisss

    @ Question

    Yeah they are, but it’s not like theres any drams that could give Awake that much better of a lead in.

  • ToXiX

    I only watched a few of NBCs new shows this season. I’m not a fan of NBC really.

    Awake, bored me to death. Stopped watching after the first episode

    Are You There, Chelsea which I hope returns for atleast 13 episodes next season. The numbers are better than the other comedies since Chelsea

    Up All Night, didn’t like it

    BFF, didn’t like it

    Bent, I dvr

  • ToXiX

    I only watched a few of NBCs new shows this season. I’m not a fan of NBC really.

    Awake, bored me to death. Stopped watching after the first episode

    Are You There, Chelsea which I hope returns for atleast 13 episodes next season. The numbers are better than the other comedies since Chelsea

    Up All Night, didn’t like it

    BFF, didn’t like it

    Bent, I DVRd it but deleted before I watched.

    I don’t watch Harry’s Law but I strongly believe NBC will renew based on total viewers alone. The demo is crap but does NBC really want to risk losing 8 million dedicated viewers?

  • tvfreak

    NBC fantasy schedule:

    Monday – The Sing-Off/Voice (1 hr.), Smash final season/The Frontier, Midnight Sun
    Tuesday – TBL (1 hr.)/Fear Factor, Revolution (fall)/Voice Results (spring), Parenthood(fall)/Revolution (spring)
    Wednesday – Community, Go On, Hannibal, SVU
    Thursday – 30 Rock, Downwardly Mobile, The Office final season, P&R, Beautiful People
    Friday – 1600 Penn, Isabel, Grimm, Dateline
    Sunday – Football Overrun/Harry’s Law, Chicago Fire, Celebrity Apprentice (1 hr.)

  • chrisss

    @ tvfreak

    Why on earth would you cut The Voice down to an hour?!

  • DW

    Whitney doesn’t come back. and it will be the final season of community and 30 rock next year.

  • Tommy Mickens

    Between Chelsea, Whitney and UAN, it will be interesting to see what happens with renewals, and to see how your predictions pan out.

    I think it’s interesting that you’re leaving UAN as a toss up when it’s frozen at a 1.01 while having Whitney as likely renewal when it’s frozen at a 0.96, even with the ratings trajectories. I also think it’s interesting you have Whitney as likely renewal and Chelsea as likely cancellation when they’re both frozen and only 0.6 apart, even with the ratings trajectories.

    Personally, I would definitely keep UAN as likely renewal despite its trajectory. It’s still the fifth best rated of the group and only below the certain renewals. If it doesn’t get renewed it will be surprising. So on that one I think you’re being too safe.

    Otherwise, I’d have HL as a toss up, Awake as likely instead of certain cancellation, and Whitney and Chelsea both as toss up. So on those I’d be safer than you. Everything else I’d leave the same.

  • Chris

    I’ve felt good about Community’s chances for renewal since the beginning of the season: the CC syndication deal and relatively stable ratings make it a shoo-in for renewal. (*NEXT* season, though…whoo. I’m pretty sure it’ll be this site’s main click-generator, as the hardcore Community fans obsessively check every week to see if there’s any hope at all of a fifth season.)

    Beyond that, though, I have a hard time figuring out which way NBC will jump. They’re so very sad, so very unloved by the ratings (seriously, do Nielsen households even remember what channel NBC is on at this point?), so cash-poor…I just don’t know. It must be like being on a doomed lifeboat lost at sea over there these days: dwindling resources, no hope of rescue, just making tough survival decisions every day and hoping to avoid being on tomorrow’s menu.

    Awake’s dead for sure, though, and that makes me sad, because I really do like it a lot; I just don’t know where a show like it could *ever* get decent ratings. It certainly never will on a network like NBC.

  • kevin

    NBC better cancel Whitney soon ’cause it’s the worst new show of the season. Parenthood, 30 Rock and Community are still in the driver’s seat of getting renewed and Awake is still “on the bubble”.

  • grey matter

    let face it nbc needs to do what abc did 3 years ago and that is launch a whole new comedy line up made up of only new shows. i think this is the perfect time to do it, the have a very strong set of pilots with major marketable talents behind them and the have the olympics as a marking platform on top of that if they put the voice during fall than the would have a very strong show to lunch at least two sitcoms out of, which is the same thing that abc did with mf and ct by premiering after DWTS.

  • Ken

    Here’s a short pilot update, for everyone making Schedules…

    Already Picked up: Go On, Hannibal

    Near certain pick ups: Chicago Fire, 1600 Penn, County, Save Me, New Normal, Animal Kingdom

    Strong Contention: Notorious, Frontier, Do No Harm, Daddy’s Girls, Dilfs

    Dead Pilots: Revolution, Sarah Silverman, Beautiful People, Midnight Sun, Isabel???

    On life support: Friday Night Dinner, Next Caller Please, Downwardly Mobile, Kari Lizer, Mocking Bird Lane

    Also The Voice is most likely going to launch in the fall (much to my disappointment), so it should squeeze into your schedules

    And it is very doubtful that The Office and SVU will end this season, NBC doesn’t no what next season will bring, so until they can launch 2 Scriped hits i don’t see them leaving.

  • Dan

    Parenthood will likely get renewed, Community, 30 Rock and Parks will get 22 episodes for syndication purposes and Up All Night is more likely to be renewed than Whitney. UAN has better critical reviews despite being slightly lower rated than Whitney.

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