NBC: Low Rated, But Lucky; 'Community,' '30 Rock,' 'Whitney' Are Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Harry's Law :oops: 0.62
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.77
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.99
Community :) :) :) :) 0.99
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Smash renewed 1.51
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.59

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Once again, if your favorite show is terribly rated, its lucky to have it on N-B-C!

NBC's ratings devastation has reached the point that the three headlined shows are likely to be renewed, even though they have averaged less than a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating in their new episodes since January 1. The cancellation bear can't believe it.

To put that in perspective, How To Be A Gentleman was pulled from the CBS schedule last Fall after two episodes that averaged a 2.6 rating, which is better than all NBC scripted shows have done since January 1 (and better than all but The Office last Fall).

This is the last "regular" NBC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Jim

    Pilot update: contrary to earlier reports is seems that Revolution has gained some serious momentum, and is now a likely pick up, Notorious which started as an underdog is looking good for pick up as well.

    Near Certain Pick up: County, Chicago Fire, New Normal, 1600 Penn, DILFS, Revolution, Friday Night Dinner

    Strong Contenders: Notorious, Do No Harm, Animal Kingdom, Frontier

    Dead Pilots: Midnight Sun, Beautiful People, Sarah Silverman.

    Life Support/Dying: Downwardly Mobile, Kari Lizer, Daddy’s Girls

    Stil in development: Mocking Bird Lane & The Farm

    Given that this week is has had a lot of pilot screenings, expect the unexpected…just look at revolution, it had a crap script but NBC now see’s something in the actual pilot…same with FND

  • JakeSnake

    Forgive me for being a n00b, but what correlation does a bear even have to NBC? You guys have bear pictures for their shows all the time, but nobody ever told me what that means.

  • Nick

    COMMUNITY – 16 (+1)
    30 ROCK – 4 (-1)

  • tvfreak

    @JakeSnake: It’s because when the posts are shown on the homepage, they’re in reverse alphabetical order, so NBC is on top. And THE CANCELLATION BEAR likes to be on top of everything. Get it? Bill’s explained it a great many times if you don’t believe me.

    @Jim: Glad to see you share my optimism for what I really hope will be the next big smash hit for Abrams. Although you make me sad to see that Beautiful People is losing out as a result. What a shame. Sci-fi really needs to take a foothold on network TV again.

  • JakeSnake

    Still a little confused…

    Feeling rather stupid right now :P

  • Concerned Citizen

    Community – 17 (+1)
    30 Rock – 3 (-1)

  • Anthony

    @Jakesnake

    The cancellation bear is the unofficial mascot for the website. It stems from the old joke that if being chased by a bear you don’t necessarily have to outrun the bear, just the other guy that you are running with. This is similar to how it works with tv show renewals (if you are better rated than another show you are “outrunning” it and wont be eaten by the bear).

  • Rebecca

    Community – 18 (+1)
    30 Rock – 2 (-1)

    quote from 30R [5.08]:
    Liz: Come on, my card only has a 1 in 52 chance of getting picked anyway.
    Tracy: How did you know that? You’re like Rain Man. Quick, how many toothpicks are on the ground?
    Liz: Zero.
    Tracy: We need to go to Vegas.

  • Rebecca

    ^Nuts, that was just 3 minutes early. Can it still count please? I read the wrong notes about my vote time.

  • Concerned Citizen

    So now Deadline’s reporting that Friday Night Dinner is looking to expand its staff like some of the other pilots. But there’s a catch: the staff signed would go over to The Office is the pilot doesn’t go through. So I guess it’s a good sign, but not an outright guarantee of a pickup. But I think NBC should definitely give it the go-ahead; Daniels has already given them two of their biggest comedies, and both of those comedies struggled creatively out of the gate, so even if the FND pilot isn’t anything special, the show could be eventually if given the chance.

  • Jon

    the only show I care about on the whole network is up all night

  • groove365

    Wow Chelsea actually has a chance. NBC has so many canceled shows already that I have a little hope.
    It doesn’t look that bad now compared to the other NBC sitcoms.

  • Marcus

    How many 18 year old people do you know that set aside some of their time to actually watch their favorite show (if they even have one) each week when it airs on broadcast TV? (The 18 – 49 demographic.) Zippo. Broadcast TV isn’t “cool” anymore. Watching a show on your iPad or online is. The Nielson ratings system is so antiquated it shouldn’t even be relevant anymore. With so many ways to watch a television show now in 2012, are we really placing the value of a show on the small fraction (<.01 percent of the population of the US) of viewers that have Nielson Boxes or mail in surveys? (I suspect many of the Nielson Boxes are left on CBS ALL day!) Broadcast networks need to go with their "gut" feeling about a show and not get over excited about the Nielson ratings. Lonestar – on FOX was axed before I ever got a chance to even watch it. The Office didn't do very well at all in the first season. 30 Rock has won 6 Golden Globe awards along with 53 wins in other catagories, yet people here on TVBTN seem to like to bash it. NBC's Thursday night shows started getting the decline in Nielsen ratings when American Idol moved to the Wednesday / Thursday schedule 2 years ago. The NBC shows have held up really well against all the competition, even though they don't WIN the night – according to Nielsen. But I don't know what else NBC should put in the Thursday timeslot that would do better than Idol. Many of the shows that I watch are in conflicting timeslots. For example, on Sunday nights do I watch Once Upon a Time or Harry's Law, both on at the same time? I like both of them, I don't have a DVR. So, I watch Harry's Law on broadcast TV, and watch Once Upon a Time later online. Why? Because Harry's Law isn't available on the NBC website. How many others do this, and how does that skew the inaccurate Nielsen ratings system?

  • Marcus

    From Wikipedia, … Nielson ratings of US Television over the years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nielsen_ratings

    This outta tell you something. … Networks fighting over a 1.5 or 2.5 rating. Really? I think you are missing the trend.

  • tvfreak

    @Rebecca: Relax, we’ll let a few minutes slide.

    COMMUNITY – 19 (+1)
    30 ROCK – 1 (-1)

    I think the NBC game is just about over…so this is probably going to be my last NBC quote for the season.

    “What you said the other day…I can’t get it out of my head. You’re right. I don’t wanna give up this baby.”
    -Emma, from Awake episode 1.10 “Slack Water”

  • Greg

    This just boggles my mind. Do you think the ad execs (and then the tv producers) will ever take into account online viewing?

    I know for myself and many like me in the 18-49 age range that cable is dying. I don’t watch any show at it’s on air time and I do not pay the additional for DVR. It seems to me that if this was added in that NBC would be doing much better than is proposed. I wonder if it is possible to split 18-49 into 18-33 and 34-49, I’ll bet CBS skews higher.

  • TSCS

    After seeing Off Their Rockers ratings this week I don’t see a scenario where Whitney doesn’t return.

  • Rebecca

    For anyone interested, the movie “The Five Year Engagement” features a few people from the NBC Thursday comedies, in supporting roles. Chris Pratt from Parks & Rec (who plays Andy), Alison Brie from Community, and Mindy Kaling from The Office. All three were great. And the film’s lead actress Emily Blunt is married to John Krasinski (Office’s Jim). Felt like watching one big happy family, lol.

  • Concerned Citizen

    Deadline’s now reporting that 1600 Penn has been given permission to begin making staffing offers. So that should be a near guaranteed pickup as well, if it wasn’t already.

  • Ultima

    @Greg
    This just boggles my mind. Do you think the ad execs (and then the tv producers) will ever take into account online viewing?

    They already do, when buying advertising space for streaming shows. Nielsen ratings measure TV viewership so that TV advertising space can be priced.

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