Bubble Watch: Down to the Wire for 'Nikita,' 'Gossip Girl,' 'Hart of Dixie' and 'Secret Circle' + 'Cougar Town' Downgraded
There were only 3 CW shows that were likely or certain to be renewed last week and this week all three were renewed. That isn’t great news for any of the CW shows on the bubble, but it isn’t really any worse news eitherand Gossip Girl, Hart of Dixie, The Secret Circle and Nikita remain bubble shows. I’m sure all four shows won’t be cancelled, but I’d be pretty surprised if all four shows were renewed.
I don’t know what Nikita’s international sales, online viewing really are, but despite its horrible ratings, it’s on Friday and still on the bubble. Fans should hope the hard-to-substantiate reports of Nikita’s international prowess are true because a renewal for one more season all but guarantees that it will be renewed for another season after that to get it to syndication.
I give Hart of Dixie an edge over The Secret Circle because CW already knows how Hart of Dixie does with a weak lead-in and surely envisions The Secret Circle will do worse when it no longer has The Vampire Diaries as a lead-in.
Saturday came reports that ABC is in early talks with TBS about taking Cougar Town off of ABC’s hands. That’s potentially good news for fans, but bad news when it comes to the show’s prospects on ABC. I’m not quite as pessimistic as Bill that the TBS talks mean de facto cancellation on ABC. But it clearly indicates that while ABC Studios wants to get the show to enough episodes for syndication, the ABC broadcast network would be plenty happy for someone else to take on that task.
It’d be hard to fault ABC for feeling that way since the ratings have been terrible and it has several middling-rated (but better rated than Cougar Town) comedies to choose from for schedule padding.
I’ve downgraded Cougar Town to likely cancellation on ABC.
I’m not quite as optimistic as Bill about Scandal of course I had the benefit of seeing Thursday’s ratings which Bill didn’t have when he posted Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel report. But I’m not as pessimistic as many commenters either, and Scandal remains on the bubble.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn’t coming back next season.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|How To Be a Gentleman||CBS||Canceled|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||Fox||Canceled|
|Best Friends Forever||NBC||Canceled|
|The Playboy Club||NBC||Canceled|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|The River||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|A Gifted Man||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|NYC 22||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|The L.A. Complex||CW||Will live on in Canada|
|Harry’s Law||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Cougar Town||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|The Finder||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Are You There, Chelsea?||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|GCB||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Scandal||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rob||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Gossip Girl||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Secret Circle||CW||On The Bubble|
|Bob’s Burgers||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Napoleon Dynamite||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Touch||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Up All Night||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Private Practice||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|30 Rock||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|The Office||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Renewed|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Renewed|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Renewed|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Final Season|
|One Tree Hill||CW||Final Season|