There were only 3 CW shows that were likely or certain to be renewed last week and this week all three were renewed. That isn't great news for any of the CW shows on the bubble, but it isn't really any worse news eitherand Gossip Girl, Hart Of Dixie, The Secret Circle and Nikita remain bubble shows. I'm sure all four shows won't be cancelled, but I'd be pretty surprised if all four shows were renewed.
I don't know what Nikita's international sales, online viewing really are, but despite its horrible ratings, it's on Friday and still on the bubble. Fans should hope the hard-to-substantiate reports of Nikita's international prowess are true because a renewal for one more season all but guarantees that it will be renewed for another season after that to get it to syndication.
I give Hart Of Dixie an edge over The Secret Circle because CW already knows how Hart Of Dixie does with a weak lead-in and surely envisions The Secret Circle will do worse when it no longer has The Vampire Diaries as a lead-in.
Saturday came reports that ABC is in early talks with TBS about taking Cougar Town off of ABC's hands. That's potentially good news for fans, but bad news when it comes to the show's prospects on ABC. I'm not quite as pessimistic as Bill that the TBS talks mean de facto cancellation on ABC. But it clearly indicates that while ABC Studios wants to get the show to enough episodes for syndication, the ABC broadcast network would be plenty happy for someone else to take on that task.
It'd be hard to fault ABC for feeling that way since the ratings have been terrible and it has several middling-rated (but better rated than Cougar Town) comedies to choose from for schedule padding.
I've downgraded Cougar Town to likely cancellation on ABC.
I'm not quite as optimistic as Bill about Scandal of course I had the benefit of seeing Thursday's ratings which Bill didn't have when he posted Tuesday's Renew/Cancel report. But I'm not as pessimistic as many commenters either, and Scandal remains on the bubble.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| NYC 22 | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| The L.A. Complex | CW | Will live on in Canada |
| Ringer | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Touch | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Private Practice | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| 90210 | CW | Renewed |
| Supernatural | CW | Renewed |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Fringe | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
The Vampire Diaries, Supernatural and 90210 were already renewed.
and 90210, sp still in both category.
I agree with your change to Cougartown. Always love the Bubble Watch. However, you have 90210 and Supernatural in :ikely Renewal and Vampire Diaries in Certain Renewal as well as in Renewed.
yep, all three renewed CW shows were showing up as both renewed and their former designation. fixed.
I think Robert is under-estimating Supernatural and 90210 still being Likely Renewals, but I’ll put money down that he is dead on about Vampire Diaries being a Certain Renewal.
@Robert Seidman
I love what you put for LA Complex’s status.
@Robert
But CW already renewed LA Complex for another 13episodes, where they would put them?
@Hope: no, CW didn’t.
By when will we know if the shows will be renewed or not?
@Me:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/03/16/when-will-you-know-if-your-favorite-show-is-canceled-or-renewed-3/
@Robert
Why is Two and Half men downgraded? I have recently seen in a news that the trio are about sign the deal for one more season.
@KS: it wasn’t downgraded recently it just wasn’t upgraded either.I didn’t bother to change the table but at this point there is virtually no distinction between the shows likely to be renewed and the shows certain to be renewed. Either way, “Men” will be back.
Cougar Town originals on Friday night on ABC. Next Week on TBS. TBS gets a long term, lower rate for syndication for a few years.
don’t care where Cougar Town it’s on, the important thing is that it will stay on air for a reeeally long time!!
Given how badly ABC has treated Cougar Town this year, I’d be glad if TBS picked it up.
i wouldn’t have last man standing on likely renewal, it’s ratings lately have been only a little better than cougar town’s…
@robert…two and a half didn’t get downgraded…it’s been on likely renewal for awhile now…
it is highly likely Warner bros will save Nikita. it is just a matter of CW having a spot for it on the schedule. IMO.
The Secret Circle has gotta be saved!!
@Hope: your link keeps going to the spam filter, but since it’s partially wrong, that’s probably a good thing. Bell Media in Canada DID order 13 more episodes, but CW hasn’t signed up for those episodes, at least not yet.
Here is the official Bell Media release:
http://bellmediapr.ca/bellmedia/releases/release.asp?id=14964&yyyy=2012
I put TSC on better odds than Hart of Dixie. Nikita is doomed and will be replaced by TSC. HoD will be canceled. I think the CW needs to view HoD as not having much likelihood of growing or stabilizing. They KNOW what Friday is like, and they KNOW TSC will do .4-.6 on Friday just like Nikita. But they also know it might stabilize on Friday or even grow. So just to take care of Friday, they’ll cancel Nikita and move TSC there.
But it is possible they’ll cancel TSC and move HoD to Friday.
Now if by some miracle they decide to keep Nikita – and for TWO more seasons as Robert suggests – then all bets are off for TSC and HoD. They might stay, they might be canceled, either or both.
Ringer is doomed (thank God, utter garbage). Gossip Girl SHOULD be doomed but the rumors say “Ostroff nostalgia” reigns.
I think Alcatraz – also utter garbage – is doomed as well.
Everything else I care about is safe, specifically Castle and Revenge, or already renewed.
I REALLY wish Nikita would be renewed, but I just can’t see it, even with the Friday factor. It’s the best action show on TV, probably even including Burn Notice (although one could debate that.) It’s just on the wrong network. It should have been on a cable network like Burn Notice is. We’d probably would get four seasons if that were true.
If I had to choose between TSC and Nikita, I would choose Nikita. That show has some of the best writing. I gave up on HoD after about nine episodes because Bilson cannot act to save her life.