Bubble Watch: Down to the Wire for 'Nikita,' 'Gossip Girl,' 'Hart of Dixie' and 'Secret Circle' + 'Cougar Town' Downgraded

Categories: 2-Featured,Bubble Watch

Written By

May 6th, 2012

There were only 3 CW shows that were likely or certain to be renewed last week and this week all three were renewed. That isn't great news for any of the CW shows on the bubble, but it isn't really any worse news eitherand  Gossip Girl, Hart Of Dixie, The Secret Circle and Nikita remain bubble shows. I'm sure  all four shows won't be cancelled, but I'd be pretty surprised if all four shows were  renewed.

I don't know what Nikita's international sales, online viewing really are, but despite its horrible ratings, it's on Friday and still on the bubble. Fans should hope the hard-to-substantiate reports of Nikita's international prowess are true because a renewal for one more season all but guarantees that it will be renewed for another season after that to get it to syndication.

I give Hart Of Dixie an edge over The Secret Circle because CW already knows how Hart Of Dixie does with a weak lead-in and surely envisions The Secret Circle will do worse when it no longer has The Vampire Diaries as a lead-in.

Cougar Town

Saturday came reports that ABC is in early talks with TBS about taking Cougar Town off of ABC's hands. That's potentially good news for fans, but bad news when it comes to the show's prospects on ABC. I'm not quite as pessimistic as Bill that the TBS talks mean de facto cancellation on ABC. But it clearly indicates that while ABC Studios wants to get the show to enough episodes for syndication, the ABC broadcast network would be plenty happy for someone  else to take on that task.

It'd be hard to fault ABC for feeling that way since the ratings have been terrible and it has several middling-rated (but better rated than Cougar Town) comedies to choose from for schedule padding.

I've downgraded Cougar Town to likely cancellation on ABC.

Scandal

I'm not quite as optimistic as Bill about Scandal of course I had the benefit of seeing Thursday's ratings which Bill didn't have when he posted Tuesday's Renew/Cancel report. But I'm not as pessimistic as many commenters either, and Scandal remains on the bubble.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Certain Cancellation
The L.A. Complex CW Will live on in Canada
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
90210 CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • Dan

    Gossip Girl will get renewed because no one told the writers to wrap it up. From what I read, they were told they were safe for at least another season. I highly doubt The CW would cancel their signature show without a proper wrap up. Regardless of how many episodes, Gossip Girl will get a final season.

    And who ever mentioned Sky Living or whatever it is saying it was the last episode, I’ll wait for verification from The CW, thanks. Don’t see why they would tell international markets that it’s cancelled way ahead of time and not announce the cancellation to the rest of America!

  • joko ono

    not a fan,but its really awsome how gossip girl can poll 0.5 on such low views

  • charmedcraft

    This is all I really care about
    “Supernatural CW Renewed “

  • Doug

    @Justin123: Here’s your list:

    Modern Family
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Hapy Endings
    Apr. 23
    Las Man Standing
    Cougar Town

    Scratch CT. ABC is cancelling it or it’s moving to TBS. I wouldn’t call LMS safe either. It’s positioning now is basically “living on memories” – what it did in the fall and winter. It’s never showed any up momentum.

    That more or less leaves you with 5. Assuming that ABC picks up 3 or 4 sitcoms, they can fully do that with a Tuesday/Wednesday block, saving 2 for mid-season (the TGIF boosters often forget that ABC ALWAYS saves one or two for mid-season).

  • Brian

    What about Biggest Loser?

  • Jay

    After last night, I would argue that GCB has fallen to likely cancellation and Bob’s Burgers is still a likely renewal. Otherwise, everything lookin’ pretty dead on in this list (minus Whitney, which I’ve disagreed about for a while and think is on the bubble).

  • rune

    @ Hart of Dixie has Rachel Bilson as a big star…
    With her show who’s always on league of the lowest rated on a TV network (CW) whom just an average of a million viewers is considered already as like a blockbuster movie.
    Yah right, Rachel Bilson a ^big star^ at the CW Fandoom Planet LMAO!!!

  • Justin121

    @Doug,

    Even if you scratch C-Town, a fourth hour of comedy is bound to happen. Be it on Tuesday or Friday.

    Midseason replacements are irrelevant.

  • lauren

    PLEASE RENEW THE SECRET CIRCLE,NIKITA,AND HART OF DIXIE THE BEST SHOWS ON CW.

  • Bette

    CSI NY is so much better than the original and I just started watching it these last few years. I like Ringer but it looks bad, I hope they find something else for Sarah.

  • nikki

    The secret circle deserves renewal. It better be. And I’m positive the ratings will sky rocket this week. I’m predi,tiong a 1.1 or 1.2 at least. You’ll see. Its a better show then nikita and heart of dixie and gossip girl for that matter. Those are the 3 that should be cancelled oh and ringer cause it can’t keep its head above water. Secret circles beginning had good ratings for weeks and they just recently. Started dropping. If you take the average for the season its done way better then those 4 other shows I mentioned. So it deserves renewal.

  • buttondiet

    @Dan pay no attention to Sky Living saying it was the last ever episode of Ringer, those people are best put on mute. they either talk rubbish or spoil the entire episodes before they start!

  • Alexis

    Nikita must be renewed, best CW show by miles.

  • katelyn

    Its looking like their is going to be a season 3 of Body of Proof.

  • CW INsider

    @ alexis

    i am truly sorry nikita will be canceled. not renewed

  • Bookworm

    Wow, I just read that Body of Proof is looking for a season 3. A few sites also put Apt 2B and LMS as a bubble show; I agree with LMS. I wasn’t aware of Apt 2B though.

  • The Big Toe

    @katelyn @Bookworm I think that we need to wait until Friday to see what happens.

  • Bookworm

    @The Big Toe

    I agree. I’m just kind of shocked by the report. I always thought it was between with GCB, Scandal and BOP with Scandal and BOP topping GCB; though SJ would like to disagree. I just wasn’t sure it would really be back, not when Rob and team have it so low ranked.

    We’ll wait and see though. Why Friday? Thought ABC comes out the 15th?

  • katelyn

    @Bookworm LMS is now a bubble show since the demo has dropped to 1.4 in last weeks episode. Right now its looking like GCB is getting cancelled and Scandal and Body of Proof getting renewed. Body of Proof has the biggest chance since its going to be ABC’s only procedual show and Paul Lee wants variety in the schedule and it also sells very well overseas. Most of the new ABC pilots are soap operas and GCB i guess is considered a soap opera and its also doing bad in the demo and yes ABC comes out May 15 at 4pm EST.

  • Bookworm

    @Katelyn

    Yeah, I pretty much figured that with LMS. I have no clue why this site keeps it as a Likely. It could be but I do not believe it is likely. It should be on the bubble. GCB is a bubble show but with its dissapointing Finale, I’m not shocked if it goes. I’ve been stating that I think Scandal is a possible renewal. Though I’ve had a few tell me differently. Body of Proof is a shockers for me; I wasn’t too sure about it. Yeah I heard about procedual but I wasn’t sure if a new show would come out. I’m glad to hear about Scandal and BOP. I really do wish the best for both of these shows.

    GCB would probably do better as a 30-minute but I don’t see ABC putting it as that, compared to getting rid of it all together. Haven’t heard much about the pilots since ABC hasn’t really said anything outside of CT going over to TBS.

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