Bubble Watch: Down to the Wire for 'Nikita,' 'Gossip Girl,' 'Hart of Dixie' and 'Secret Circle' + 'Cougar Town' Downgraded

Categories: 2-Featured,Bubble Watch

Written By

May 6th, 2012

There were only 3 CW shows that were likely or certain to be renewed last week and this week all three were renewed. That isn't great news for any of the CW shows on the bubble, but it isn't really any worse news eitherand  Gossip Girl, Hart of Dixie, The Secret Circle and Nikita remain bubble shows. I'm sure  all four shows won't be cancelled, but I'd be pretty surprised if all four shows were  renewed.

I don't know what Nikita's international sales, online viewing really are, but despite its horrible ratings, it's on Friday and still on the bubble. Fans should hope the hard-to-substantiate reports of Nikita's international prowess are true because a renewal for one more season all but guarantees that it will be renewed for another season after that to get it to syndication.

I give Hart of Dixie an edge over The Secret Circle because CW already knows how Hart of Dixie does with a weak lead-in and surely envisions The Secret Circle will do worse when it no longer has The Vampire Diaries as a lead-in.

Cougar Town

Saturday came reports that ABC is in early talks with TBS about taking Cougar Town off of ABC's hands. That's potentially good news for fans, but bad news when it comes to the show's prospects on ABC. I'm not quite as pessimistic as Bill that the TBS talks mean de facto cancellation on ABC. But it clearly indicates that while ABC Studios wants to get the show to enough episodes for syndication, the ABC broadcast network would be plenty happy for someone  else to take on that task.

It'd be hard to fault ABC for feeling that way since the ratings have been terrible and it has several middling-rated (but better rated than Cougar Town) comedies to choose from for schedule padding.

I've downgraded Cougar Town to likely cancellation on ABC.


I'm not quite as optimistic as Bill about Scandal of course I had the benefit of seeing Thursday's ratings which Bill didn't have when he posted Tuesday's Renew/Cancel report. But I'm not as pessimistic as many commenters either, and Scandal remains on the bubble.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be a Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Certain Cancellation
The L.A. Complex CW Will live on in Canada
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person of Interest CBS Renewed
90210 CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
  • Gray

    Missing should be renewed! While the ratings might not be fantastic, they are not much worse than Scandal’s…this ABC hit always has me on the edge of my seat! Ashley Judd is amazing as Becca, and I love how each episode provides a new twist and turn. This show MUST stay!

  • Holly

    Missing should be renewed! While the ratings might not be fantastic, they are not much worse than Scandal’s…

    You are apparently looking at different ratings than the rest of us.

  • Myra

    Bridget Kelly cracks me up be nice to her I wish we could live in her fantasy world

  • Chris

    Well if they do get rid of LMS, I’m not sure what ABC expected. It got above a 2.0 for 19 episodes. They put it with Work It, Man Up, and Cougar Town; two of which were canceled and the other moving to TBS. They put it at 8 on tuesday with no lead in like Modern Family and it was up against NCIS.Did they expect it to be a smash hit when they put all these hurdles in its way? It’s really quite funny when you think about it. I mean they give Happy Endings (which I love) the post Modern Family slot and same with Apt. 23 and Cougar Town so those shows could build an audience. Did LMS get that lead in? Nah. They just stuck it at ABC’s worse slot and said fend for yourself. Friday Night death slot? Yeah right. More like Tuesday Night Death slot. Least they could have done was put it AFTER Dancing With The Stars but that would make too much sense. Why build an audience?

  • Brian

    NIKITA!!!!!!!!!!! The best action series around – there is nothing, I mean nothing that is like Nikita when it comes to fight scenes, gun play and fast paced writing. It’s like 24, Alias and The Bourne Identity all wrapped into one…….. I cannot believe it has such low ratings but looks like it does have a steady following. Renew it CW – !

  • Selena

    ok, 4 hot guys (sean, michael, owen and ryan) and some hot babes (Nikita, Alex) and throw in some romance and drama along with some cool fashion (for the gals) and for the guys, some kick ass action and you have a great television show that not many are watching but should……….NIKITA !!

    Please give Nikita a 3rd season……….

  • Mary

    Nikita if renewed will get 13 episodes, more than enough to wrap up the series and close off with 58 episodes.

  • Alloy

    Nikita is easily the best action drama in years it needs to get discovered more but its a bigger hit outside of the States.

  • Riff Rafferty

    So are we not doing the “Fantasy Schedule” thing this year? Or has that pretty much been exhausted by the kidiots who crapped up every single thread for the past 9 months with them?

    What about the renewal percentages threads? Please don’t tell me those are gone. Those were the most fun threads. Fun to look back and see the things you blew (“The Chicago Code,” “Brothers & Sisters” renewed, “Chuck,” “Cougar Town” not). Well, okay, it wasn’t so much me as it was the networks who blew it.

  • Joanne

    NIKITA! They must save Nikita and for God´s sake move it to any other day than friday. Such a horrible schedule for the poor show.

  • Ultima

    Nikita if renewed will get 13 episodes, more than enough to wrap up the series and close off with 58 episodes.

    There’s no way that will happen.

    They’ll either give it a full season order, a short order with the possibility of increasing it, or just cancel it.

    A 13 episode final season for a third year show is pointless. It doesn’t have enough episodes for syndication, so they’ll just be throwing money away.

  • Craig

    the fact that 90210 is still around is astounding. i liked the original (the first seven or eight seasons anyway: the last two were almost unwatchable), the reboot is just horrible…

  • Tim

    Sorry Gossip Girl has 5 seasons already behind it. Making it with enough episodes for syndication. So why spend another year when the show runner just left?

  • Tom

    Who at the “networks” is making the decision that a TV series is renewed or cancelled? They say it is due to ratings based on the number of viewers watching these shows. No one has asked me what I watch and what I like or don’t like. I vision of bunch of monkeys in front of a tv monitor with a panel of buttons layed out on a desk. Every 60 seconds a TV show is flashed on the screen and the monkeys go crazy hitting the buttons in a frenzy. At the end of 60 seconds a tally is taken from this and a TV show bites the dust. Of course the monkeys could be replaced by a bunch of network executives with the same effect.

  • Doug

    @Chris: ABC should have aired DWTS results at 8pm this season. It made no sense to leave LMS hanging in the wind at 8pm when it would have done better at 9pm and DWTS probably wouldn’t have taken that much of a hit at 8pm. Makes no sense, but it is ABC.

    LMS did well for most of the season in its timeslot, but the problem I see is twofold: it showed no upward momentum at all this season (almost continually sliding), and it doesn’t fit ABC’s brand of comedies. The second is probably the most detrimental, and it’s not rated high enough to try to build a night around it. So it’s really in a no-win situation. We’ll see what happens, but I wouldn’t be surprise to see it cancelled.

  • James Sample

    Actually GCB overall gained a higher average than Body of Proof by 0.1. I would like them both to come back and axe Scandal. I suppose we will soon see…

  • Tom

    Secret Circle, Nikita, Last Man Standing should be renewed. But I thought Rubicon should not have been axed. What do I know? The network gods know all, see all, do all! BS!

  • Jenny

    What is NBC going to do now that The Voice kept dropping in the ratings all year?

    Tonight’s finale was Terrible!

    Way too drawn out, way too much boring filler, and the woman doing the interviews was so bad it was hard to watch.

    Plus yesterday show with last year’s final four proves the show does not have contestant’s talent to be stars.

    Today’s final four, only Juliet with the talent to be a star and she did not win.

    Also for a show called The Voice, there was a lot of lip syncing in tonight’s final.

    I predict The Voice will be The Flop next year.

  • James

    I think Suburgatory doesn’t need renewal; unless George treats Tessa more as an adult.

    And this school Principal has to be A Principal

  • Beth

    I’m going to miss Harry’s Law…

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