Bubble Watch: Down to the Wire for 'Nikita,' 'Gossip Girl,' 'Hart of Dixie' and 'Secret Circle' + 'Cougar Town' Downgraded

Categories: 2-Featured,Bubble Watch

Written By

May 6th, 2012

There were only 3 CW shows that were likely or certain to be renewed last week and this week all three were renewed. That isn't great news for any of the CW shows on the bubble, but it isn't really any worse news eitherand  Gossip Girl, Hart Of Dixie, The Secret Circle and Nikita remain bubble shows. I'm sure  all four shows won't be cancelled, but I'd be pretty surprised if all four shows were  renewed.

I don't know what Nikita's international sales, online viewing really are, but despite its horrible ratings, it's on Friday and still on the bubble. Fans should hope the hard-to-substantiate reports of Nikita's international prowess are true because a renewal for one more season all but guarantees that it will be renewed for another season after that to get it to syndication.

I give Hart Of Dixie an edge over The Secret Circle because CW already knows how Hart Of Dixie does with a weak lead-in and surely envisions The Secret Circle will do worse when it no longer has The Vampire Diaries as a lead-in.

Cougar Town

Saturday came reports that ABC is in early talks with TBS about taking Cougar Town off of ABC's hands. That's potentially good news for fans, but bad news when it comes to the show's prospects on ABC. I'm not quite as pessimistic as Bill that the TBS talks mean de facto cancellation on ABC. But it clearly indicates that while ABC Studios wants to get the show to enough episodes for syndication, the ABC broadcast network would be plenty happy for someone  else to take on that task.

It'd be hard to fault ABC for feeling that way since the ratings have been terrible and it has several middling-rated (but better rated than Cougar Town) comedies to choose from for schedule padding.

I've downgraded Cougar Town to likely cancellation on ABC.

Scandal

I'm not quite as optimistic as Bill about Scandal of course I had the benefit of seeing Thursday's ratings which Bill didn't have when he posted Tuesday's Renew/Cancel report. But I'm not as pessimistic as many commenters either, and Scandal remains on the bubble.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Certain Cancellation
The L.A. Complex CW Will live on in Canada
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
90210 CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • Nick

    Why is Touch on the Bubble when it grew this Thursday??
    I’d say it has a considerable chance of getting renewed considering how bad all the other FOX dramas are doing.

  • Petar

    @Nick

    May be cause the finder after Idol was with better ratings than touch after idol wich is laughable.

  • Jane Elliot

    In my dream world, Nikita and Hart of Dixie are renewed and The Secret Circle and Gossip Girl are cancelled. I doubt that’s going to happen, but the CW’s ratings are so completely woeful that non-ratings factors might actually make it possible. Once again CW becomes the most interesting network schedule to predict, for all of the wrong reasons.

  • Petar

    @Nick

    i forgot and the finder don’t pay 200 000 per ep for one actor.

  • Nick

    I think that HoD and Nikita have the edge over TSC. Here’s what I predict:

    Ringer: cancelled
    LA complex: possible return in summer??
    HoD: renewed, 13 eps
    TSC: cancelled
    Nikita: renewed, keep until syndication
    Gossip Girl: renewed, 13 ep final season

  • Michael

    The Secret Circle is such a dumb show. Lame writing, acting.. and ratings show that.

    Hope Nikita, Hart of Dixie will get renewed.

  • Nick

    @Petar
    The Finder gets 2.0s, and Touch gets 2.1s. How is that better?

  • The Big Toe

    It’s the last actual bubble watch. Here are my final bubble predictions:

    ABC:
    *GCB – This one really is a goner; the series is really iffy about next season.
    *Scandal – ABC will keep this one.
    *CSI: Miami – CBS would not cancel a CSI, even to make room. I’d expect a renewal for this one.
    *CSI: NY – Same thing with CSI: Miami goes for this. Of course it will be renewed!
    *Rob – This show really looks to be canceled. The ratings weren’t even good.
    *Rules of Engagement – It probably will be renewed since this show is popular.
    *Gossip Girl – If there’s talks about a final season order, then this show will be renewed.
    *Hart of Dixie – Well, it just moved off likely cancellation last week. I would expect this one to be canceled.
    *Nikita – After 2 seasons, the show will be canceled for sure after this season’s woeful ratings.
    *The Secret Circle – The creator of The Vampire Diaries created this, so The CW will let this show off the hook.
    *Bob’s Burgers – Why is this show on the bubble? I cannot stress enough to say that this show will have the second half of the 22 episodes air next season. It already was renewed!
    *Napoleon Dynamite – This show probably will be back for more episodes.
    *Touch – This show, in my opinion, does not deserve a second season because of how horrible it is. It will be canceled!
    *Up All Night – Of course this will be renewed!

    That’s all I have. I only disagree with Apartment 23 & The Office. Both should be on the bubble (and will be canceled). All cancellations will be canceled. And Robert, thank you so much for moving Cougar Town to Likely Cancellation because it will be canceled!

  • livvy

    Hopefully HoD gets renewed. I just don’t see a network cancelling all of their freshmen shows. Nikita and Ringer are gone. And at this point HoD has a bigger chance of being renewed that SC.

    Has it happened that a network cancelled all of their freshmen shows?

  • John A

    Neither Hart or TSC should be renewed but Hart didnt have a good lead in like TSC and waste it. I think Hart deserves 13 more eps but thats all it would get.

  • Bookworm

    How is Happy Endings still likely to be renewed? And Yet Cougar Town is likely to be cancelled? Doesn’t make much sense to me and considering that ABC didn’t air the last episode, surely that’s a problem right?

    As for Scandal, that’s my show so I’m always going to be optimistic. I do find it funny that he stated he’s not as pessimistic as some of the commenter’s.

  • Brandy

    I like Nikita but why would they renew it.?ad rates were lowest last season and will be very low this year,it’s an expensive show to make(one of cws most expensive),the demo is terrible and the ratings will only be worse next year.I predict 0.2 s if not lower and if it gets renewed four seasons it’ll be getting0.0 &under a million viewers by season fours end. Also, with it’s awful ratings who’d want to syndicate it(alias didn’t get good ratings in syndication). & cw wouldn’t get very much money for it in a syndication deal cause it’s ratings stink.i don’t see how Netflix, iTunes, huluplus,amazon video on demand, international sales, ok but steady DVD sales will make up for low ad rates and low syndication deal if it gets past season three. I feel it had a second chance and bombed this season. It was put on Fri cause it was the lowest rated cw show returning this season and it was doing too badly to stick anywhere else. It dosent DVr well,or do well in w18-34 or a18-49. People complain that GG is gonna get renewed with terrible ratings and Dawns favoritism, it’ll be the same with Mark Pedowitz if Nikita is renewed cause hes a fan ive heard.If Nikita’s getting 0.2 at least next year, will they really renew it for season four? Just cause Nikita’s on Fri. Dosent mean it can or should get crappy ratings(second lowest rated in demo, routinely lowest rated scripted cw show)& keep getting renewed. I will be mad if Nikita gets renewed and a better rated, more deserving show gets cancelled for it. Nikita’s FiVE 0.4 s now, CW has to have standard, a bottom and if 0.4 aren’t it, the network deserves to close down &MP get fired. As I said I like Nikita, but am prepared for its cancellation and think its ratings justify cancellation.

  • The Big Toe

    @Robert: You really need to change Two and a Half Men to a certain renewal because Ashton Kutcher’s salary has been set.

  • Jane Elliot

    @Bookworm: Actually the Bill he’s referring to is the site’s other co-founder (and the one who does the Renew/Cancel Index on Tuesdays).

  • Petar

    The Finder gets 2.0s, and Touch gets 2.1s. How is that better?
    @Nick
    well ok close. But how expensive is touch and how cheap is the finder – look and in cost not only revenue! If only revenue was important tera nova with its around 2.2 will be safe but it isn’t!

  • Brandy

    I hope Hart of Dixie and Secret Circle are renewed.

  • Ram510

    It really hurts to see Cougar Town likely cancelled

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @TheBigToe: what happens if I don’t change it? Nothing! It will still get renewed. :) Just like no matter what I write Bob’s Burgers will have more episodes for next season even though it didn’t get an additional renewal.

  • Bookworm

    @Jane

    I know. Not the ABC Bill; I wans’t talking about that one.

  • Pete

    Anyone who believe HOD and Nikita will be renewed before TSC are quite frankly delusional. There is also no evidence to support this so called “fact” that is TSC moves to Friday it will perform really bad. Its just speculation.

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