Bubble Watch: Down to the Wire for 'Nikita,' 'Gossip Girl,' 'Hart of Dixie' and 'Secret Circle' + 'Cougar Town' Downgraded

Categories: 2-Featured,Bubble Watch

Written By

May 6th, 2012

There were only 3 CW shows that were likely or certain to be renewed last week and this week all three were renewed. That isn't great news for any of the CW shows on the bubble, but it isn't really any worse news eitherand  Gossip Girl, Hart Of Dixie, The Secret Circle and Nikita remain bubble shows. I'm sure  all four shows won't be cancelled, but I'd be pretty surprised if all four shows were  renewed.

I don't know what Nikita's international sales, online viewing really are, but despite its horrible ratings, it's on Friday and still on the bubble. Fans should hope the hard-to-substantiate reports of Nikita's international prowess are true because a renewal for one more season all but guarantees that it will be renewed for another season after that to get it to syndication.

I give Hart Of Dixie an edge over The Secret Circle because CW already knows how Hart Of Dixie does with a weak lead-in and surely envisions The Secret Circle will do worse when it no longer has The Vampire Diaries as a lead-in.

Cougar Town

Saturday came reports that ABC is in early talks with TBS about taking Cougar Town off of ABC's hands. That's potentially good news for fans, but bad news when it comes to the show's prospects on ABC. I'm not quite as pessimistic as Bill that the TBS talks mean de facto cancellation on ABC. But it clearly indicates that while ABC Studios wants to get the show to enough episodes for syndication, the ABC broadcast network would be plenty happy for someone  else to take on that task.

It'd be hard to fault ABC for feeling that way since the ratings have been terrible and it has several middling-rated (but better rated than Cougar Town) comedies to choose from for schedule padding.

I've downgraded Cougar Town to likely cancellation on ABC.

Scandal

I'm not quite as optimistic as Bill about Scandal of course I had the benefit of seeing Thursday's ratings which Bill didn't have when he posted Tuesday's Renew/Cancel report. But I'm not as pessimistic as many commenters either, and Scandal remains on the bubble.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Certain Cancellation
The L.A. Complex CW Will live on in Canada
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
90210 CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • SJ

    Oops, I meant, Apartment 23 and Happy Endings renewed for 13 episodes;
    Middle, MF, Suburgatory and LMS renewed for full seasons.

  • Brandy

    I also say I want GG renewed for closure(its ending on a cliffhanger that showrunner/producer has said “is the biggest cliffhanger in the hisrory of the show and will change the fabric of the show”.I heard on twitter its renewed. I would like it if GCB were renewed.

  • David Howell

    On CW: Ringer’s a goner, OTH has finished, Arrow and Carrie Diaries are sure-fire pickups. Given the success of OTH’s final season, a similar order for Gossip Girl makes a lot of sense, and Cult can replace it midseason (or GG could be held until after the first short run of Cult, and a second one can be ordered to replace a flop if needs be).

    So for Nikita, HoD, and TSC, it’s about being preferred to the other pilots. I don’t see The Situation not being picked up, so one of them has to go. I don’t even think they have two other pilots I’ve not mentioned that have any chance of a pickup, so one of them is safe. If I had to guess: Nikita goes, TSC and HoD both survive, and The CW end up bitterly regretting the former and pull it midseason (either for a new scripted show, a new reality show, or Cult season 2 if season 1 airs in the fall and does well – remember that Cult is meant to have cable-style seasons).

  • LOL

    For Fox, thinking it better be a rebuilding year, it was just not their year.

    As far as NBC and CW, couldn’t care, because their fans make me wish every one of their freaking shows are cancelled.

  • SJ

    @Justin121

    There was an exhaustive discussion on the whole GCB vs. Scandal thing in the Thursday final ratings post between me and the user who goes by the name of “Bookworm”. Ultimately, I think it does come down to these two and they are on fairly even ground. GCB, I think, has a leg-up because of its Sunday placement.

    Also, mid-season shows actually tend to only get renewed for 13-episode second seasons (Harry’s Law, Body of Proof and Happy Endings being some of the more recent examples). Smash was somewhat of an exception there and getting 15 episodes isn’t the same as getting the whole season.

  • Survivor Fan

    My Disagreeances-
    – Many Certain vs. Likely
    – CW ‘Bubble’- Nikita, HoD Likely Cancellation; TSC Bubble; GG Likely Renewal
    -Touch Likely Renewal
    – LMS Bubble
    – Napoleon Dynamite- Likely Cancellation
    – ROE: Likely Renewal
    – Scandal: Likely Renewal
    – I include reality

  • Bookworm

    @SJ
    We honestly don’t know how much the show cost. I would imagine that it is less than Grey but more expensive than the midseason replacements. I’m not sure either way about Kate’s contract or what she committed too but I do know that after 13 episodes, there is something that needs to be worked out contract wise. I read somewhere that her contract officially ends after another 13 episodes but maybe it was the she is committed to those 13.
    I think she can. The contract nego probably started way before the season ended because ABC has to have a final answer before its May announcement. If her contract covers her for a certain amount of episodes, any that come after that would be considered a new ; whether it be in the middle of a season or not.

    As for the raise for season 6, if she had already got it, I’m sure there would be the promise of a whole new season since most of the contracts that receive are generally being picked up/continues. No sense in giving a raise to a show you will drop.

    I think the Pilot screening have a lot to do with it but I also think ABC will put them as a mid-season replacement.

    Totals views matter and don’t matter. People claim a decline in Scandal based on total views but with rating, we only saw this one and that was because of being adjusted down its usual .1 it was adjusted down .2 (how, I do not know).

    As for the 18-49 age brackets; you still haven’t shown me that GCB tops Scandal. If I’m correct, Scandal has been 1 with W18-49 since the start. Also its avg 2.0 ( still consider it that) has been by far the most steady of all ABC shows and it has made no significant jumps up or down, which means it is holding viewers and I can only imagine it will go up from there. GCB can be a 2.0 one week and then drop to a 1.5 the next.
    As for lead ins, people constantly claim that but Apt2b with the biggest lead in of Modern Family produces nowhere near them and it almost half while Scandal behind Grey is not too far off. Therefore, I try not to use lead ins because though they play a factor, I don’t feel one show automatically makes another shows ratings higher/lower. We can see that with Missing and Grey. The same could be said for Happy Endings and Modern Family.

    DH is averaging a 2.7, not a 2.05. DH has the established fan base and was at one point avg over a 6. With that said, it does not do where Grey does, though the difference is slim at times, but I’m not sure if we can argue that Scandal followings Greys rating because we’ve never seen it on its own.

    Numbers don’t lie but GCB numbers are far from impressive and the unstableness is nothing to jump high for. GCB is a country DH and Its a little too risky for me. I can’t rely on the numbers and it get picks apart by the media which means bad advertising.

    Nice one with the GCB Episode vs Scandal Episode I’ll give you that. But if we compared the last five with each other we have a 1.98 and a 1.62. GCB got a so call strong start and hasn’t seen it since. Still, I hope for a Scandal season two renewal. Its honestly one of the few shows on TV that keep me coming back and I think it has the potential to be a big show;
    Racism claims aren’t outside of the norms. This is the first time a black woman had lead a primetime show in over 30 years, I’m not betting that it stands a problems. Comments I saw on a few websites confirms the “why couldn’t she be white” or “why is Shonda only putting a black woman because she is black” etc. There is an under lying tone and most of us are either too naive to see it or simply chooses to ignore it. Either way, Scandal has held its own and I’m glad to see it that people do generally like this show. Minus those on there :D

  • Bookworm

    @SJ Sorry, posted my response on the wrong blog.

    Either way, I disagree with your list (obviously!). I thin GCB will be gone with Scandal getting the season. I also don’t see ABC doing that many 13 episodes for its new show. Happy Endings should be in the race for “On the bubble” because it has had a really grim looking season; as did its first. Also Last Man Standing should not be renewed as another pointed out, it went from a high of 3.5 to a low of 1.5. And its ratings and literally cut in half. I can’t imagine why ABC would think twice about keeping it.

    I also disagree with 30Rock, The Office and Community all seeing final seasons. I do believe The Office will see a final season but Community is more likely to have another season and then a final one with 30 Rock following the same; maybe even two more season and then a final for 30 Rock.

  • Bookworm

    I take that back, Last Man Standing had a 1.4.

  • nicola83

    I hope Hart of Dixie renewed!!!

  • LOL

    For the 10:00 shows on ABC, it is like a photo finish the last few weeks. It is going to come down to the prospects of syndication and the deals all ready made for the five shows. Out of the five, my favorite Revenge, a no brainer for a 2nd season, but if ratings go down next year, I don’t think this show is syndication material……

  • HERB

    Alert–Alert. POI FINALE on the 17th will have my doll baby [ I wish ] Amy Acker [Guest] Trapped with John and Finch, Carter and Fusco must get them out. WOW!! Hope her and Zoe are back next season.

  • JTV

    Anybody who is saying that NBC will end Parks/Community/30 Rock/The Office all at once next season is delusional.

  • Guy

    I really want Nikita and The Secret Circle renewed but i am feeling like all my favourite shows are going to end. Body of Proof and GCB also look like they are gone. Scandal is a lock for renewal. Don’t care if it slipped last week.

  • Johnny

    Why is Castle only in “Likely Renewal”?

    All the other sites place it in the same category as Grey’s Anatomy, Modern Family, and Once Upon a Time.

    Surely it’s a certain renewal?

  • rob60990

    “I take that back, Last Man Standing had a 1.4.”

    No you were right the 1st time with the 1.5.

  • johnb

    i still think AWAKE is a really good show! i dont see why it is designated as certain to be cancelled

  • Bookworm

    @Rob60990

    Ditto. It was adjusted up last week; I forgot about that.

  • John A

    Its a long way away for Syndication for Nikita. They be better to dump it. CW should try another scifi show to work better with SPN on friday.

  • KennyA

    My predictions:

    ABC:
    Cancelled:
    Body Of Proof
    Cougar Town
    GCB
    Missing
    The River

    Renewed:
    Castle (New timeslot)
    Don’t Trust That B (13 Episodes)
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Happy Endings
    Modern Family
    Once Upon A Time
    Private Practice (Final Season – 13 Episodes)
    Revenge
    Scandal (13-15 Episodes – Midseason)
    Suburgatory
    The Middle

    Last Man Standing will be renewed if they want to try a comedyblock on Friday! Otherwise it will be cancelled

    CBS:
    Cancelled:
    A Gifted Man
    NY 22
    Unforgettable
    CSI: NY
    Rob

    Renewed:
    CSI: Miami (Final Season)
    Two And A Half Men

    Rules of Engagement depens on another Comedyblock!

    CW:
    Cancelled:
    Nikita
    Ringer
    The L.A. Compley
    The Secret Circle

    Renewed:
    Gossip Girl (Final Season)
    Hart Of Dixie

    FOX:
    Cancelled:
    Alcatraz
    The Finder

    Renewed:
    Touch (13 Episodes)

    NBC:
    Cancelled:
    Are You There, Chelsea?
    Awake
    Bent
    Harry’s Law

    Renewed:
    30 Rock (Final Season 13 Episodes)
    Community
    Law & Order: SVU
    Parenthood (For 18 Episodes again)
    Parks & Recreation
    The Office
    Up All Night (13 Episodes)
    Whitney (13 Episodes)

    NBC has to to something with the comedy block on Thursday!
    30 Rock will end next year and i’m not sure how long The Office can be on the air. It’s old, cast members are probably leaving and the ratings dropped. Community isn’t a rating hit either.
    It would be wise to announce a final season for all 3 shows but they can’t.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures