There were only 3 CW shows that were likely or certain to be renewed last week and this week all three were renewed. That isn't great news for any of the CW shows on the bubble, but it isn't really any worse news eitherand Gossip Girl, Hart Of Dixie, The Secret Circle and Nikita remain bubble shows. I'm sure all four shows won't be cancelled, but I'd be pretty surprised if all four shows were renewed.
I don't know what Nikita's international sales, online viewing really are, but despite its horrible ratings, it's on Friday and still on the bubble. Fans should hope the hard-to-substantiate reports of Nikita's international prowess are true because a renewal for one more season all but guarantees that it will be renewed for another season after that to get it to syndication.
I give Hart Of Dixie an edge over The Secret Circle because CW already knows how Hart Of Dixie does with a weak lead-in and surely envisions The Secret Circle will do worse when it no longer has The Vampire Diaries as a lead-in.
Saturday came reports that ABC is in early talks with TBS about taking Cougar Town off of ABC's hands. That's potentially good news for fans, but bad news when it comes to the show's prospects on ABC. I'm not quite as pessimistic as Bill that the TBS talks mean de facto cancellation on ABC. But it clearly indicates that while ABC Studios wants to get the show to enough episodes for syndication, the ABC broadcast network would be plenty happy for someone else to take on that task.
It'd be hard to fault ABC for feeling that way since the ratings have been terrible and it has several middling-rated (but better rated than Cougar Town) comedies to choose from for schedule padding.
I've downgraded Cougar Town to likely cancellation on ABC.
I'm not quite as optimistic as Bill about Scandal of course I had the benefit of seeing Thursday's ratings which Bill didn't have when he posted Tuesday's Renew/Cancel report. But I'm not as pessimistic as many commenters either, and Scandal remains on the bubble.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| NYC 22 | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| The L.A. Complex | CW | Will live on in Canada |
| Ringer | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Touch | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Private Practice | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| 90210 | CW | Renewed |
| Supernatural | CW | Renewed |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Fringe | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
Oops, I meant, Apartment 23 and Happy Endings renewed for 13 episodes;
Middle, MF, Suburgatory and LMS renewed for full seasons.
I also say I want GG renewed for closure(its ending on a cliffhanger that showrunner/producer has said “is the biggest cliffhanger in the hisrory of the show and will change the fabric of the show”.I heard on twitter its renewed. I would like it if GCB were renewed.
On CW: Ringer’s a goner, OTH has finished, Arrow and Carrie Diaries are sure-fire pickups. Given the success of OTH’s final season, a similar order for Gossip Girl makes a lot of sense, and Cult can replace it midseason (or GG could be held until after the first short run of Cult, and a second one can be ordered to replace a flop if needs be).
So for Nikita, HoD, and TSC, it’s about being preferred to the other pilots. I don’t see The Situation not being picked up, so one of them has to go. I don’t even think they have two other pilots I’ve not mentioned that have any chance of a pickup, so one of them is safe. If I had to guess: Nikita goes, TSC and HoD both survive, and The CW end up bitterly regretting the former and pull it midseason (either for a new scripted show, a new reality show, or Cult season 2 if season 1 airs in the fall and does well – remember that Cult is meant to have cable-style seasons).
For Fox, thinking it better be a rebuilding year, it was just not their year.
As far as NBC and CW, couldn’t care, because their fans make me wish every one of their freaking shows are cancelled.
@Justin121
There was an exhaustive discussion on the whole GCB vs. Scandal thing in the Thursday final ratings post between me and the user who goes by the name of “Bookworm”. Ultimately, I think it does come down to these two and they are on fairly even ground. GCB, I think, has a leg-up because of its Sunday placement.
Also, mid-season shows actually tend to only get renewed for 13-episode second seasons (Harry’s Law, Body of Proof and Happy Endings being some of the more recent examples). Smash was somewhat of an exception there and getting 15 episodes isn’t the same as getting the whole season.
My Disagreeances-
- Many Certain vs. Likely
- CW ‘Bubble’- Nikita, HoD Likely Cancellation; TSC Bubble; GG Likely Renewal
-Touch Likely Renewal
- LMS Bubble
- Napoleon Dynamite- Likely Cancellation
- ROE: Likely Renewal
- Scandal: Likely Renewal
- I include reality
@SJ
We honestly don’t know how much the show cost. I would imagine that it is less than Grey but more expensive than the midseason replacements. I’m not sure either way about Kate’s contract or what she committed too but I do know that after 13 episodes, there is something that needs to be worked out contract wise. I read somewhere that her contract officially ends after another 13 episodes but maybe it was the she is committed to those 13.
I think she can. The contract nego probably started way before the season ended because ABC has to have a final answer before its May announcement. If her contract covers her for a certain amount of episodes, any that come after that would be considered a new ; whether it be in the middle of a season or not.
As for the raise for season 6, if she had already got it, I’m sure there would be the promise of a whole new season since most of the contracts that receive are generally being picked up/continues. No sense in giving a raise to a show you will drop.
I think the Pilot screening have a lot to do with it but I also think ABC will put them as a mid-season replacement.
Totals views matter and don’t matter. People claim a decline in Scandal based on total views but with rating, we only saw this one and that was because of being adjusted down its usual .1 it was adjusted down .2 (how, I do not know).
As for the 18-49 age brackets; you still haven’t shown me that GCB tops Scandal. If I’m correct, Scandal has been 1 with W18-49 since the start. Also its avg 2.0 ( still consider it that) has been by far the most steady of all ABC shows and it has made no significant jumps up or down, which means it is holding viewers and I can only imagine it will go up from there. GCB can be a 2.0 one week and then drop to a 1.5 the next.
As for lead ins, people constantly claim that but Apt2b with the biggest lead in of Modern Family produces nowhere near them and it almost half while Scandal behind Grey is not too far off. Therefore, I try not to use lead ins because though they play a factor, I don’t feel one show automatically makes another shows ratings higher/lower. We can see that with Missing and Grey. The same could be said for Happy Endings and Modern Family.
DH is averaging a 2.7, not a 2.05. DH has the established fan base and was at one point avg over a 6. With that said, it does not do where Grey does, though the difference is slim at times, but I’m not sure if we can argue that Scandal followings Greys rating because we’ve never seen it on its own.
Numbers don’t lie but GCB numbers are far from impressive and the unstableness is nothing to jump high for. GCB is a country DH and Its a little too risky for me. I can’t rely on the numbers and it get picks apart by the media which means bad advertising.
Nice one with the GCB Episode vs Scandal Episode I’ll give you that. But if we compared the last five with each other we have a 1.98 and a 1.62. GCB got a so call strong start and hasn’t seen it since. Still, I hope for a Scandal season two renewal. Its honestly one of the few shows on TV that keep me coming back and I think it has the potential to be a big show;
Racism claims aren’t outside of the norms. This is the first time a black woman had lead a primetime show in over 30 years, I’m not betting that it stands a problems. Comments I saw on a few websites confirms the “why couldn’t she be white” or “why is Shonda only putting a black woman because she is black” etc. There is an under lying tone and most of us are either too naive to see it or simply chooses to ignore it. Either way, Scandal has held its own and I’m glad to see it that people do generally like this show. Minus those on there
@SJ Sorry, posted my response on the wrong blog.
Either way, I disagree with your list (obviously!). I thin GCB will be gone with Scandal getting the season. I also don’t see ABC doing that many 13 episodes for its new show. Happy Endings should be in the race for “On the bubble” because it has had a really grim looking season; as did its first. Also Last Man Standing should not be renewed as another pointed out, it went from a high of 3.5 to a low of 1.5. And its ratings and literally cut in half. I can’t imagine why ABC would think twice about keeping it.
I also disagree with 30Rock, The Office and Community all seeing final seasons. I do believe The Office will see a final season but Community is more likely to have another season and then a final one with 30 Rock following the same; maybe even two more season and then a final for 30 Rock.
I take that back, Last Man Standing had a 1.4.
I hope Hart of Dixie renewed!!!
For the 10:00 shows on ABC, it is like a photo finish the last few weeks. It is going to come down to the prospects of syndication and the deals all ready made for the five shows. Out of the five, my favorite Revenge, a no brainer for a 2nd season, but if ratings go down next year, I don’t think this show is syndication material……
Alert–Alert. POI FINALE on the 17th will have my doll baby [ I wish ] Amy Acker [Guest] Trapped with John and Finch, Carter and Fusco must get them out. WOW!! Hope her and Zoe are back next season.
Anybody who is saying that NBC will end Parks/Community/30 Rock/The Office all at once next season is delusional.
I really want Nikita and The Secret Circle renewed but i am feeling like all my favourite shows are going to end. Body of Proof and GCB also look like they are gone. Scandal is a lock for renewal. Don’t care if it slipped last week.
Why is Castle only in “Likely Renewal”?
All the other sites place it in the same category as Grey’s Anatomy, Modern Family, and Once Upon a Time.
Surely it’s a certain renewal?
“I take that back, Last Man Standing had a 1.4.”
No you were right the 1st time with the 1.5.
i still think AWAKE is a really good show! i dont see why it is designated as certain to be cancelled
@Rob60990
Ditto. It was adjusted up last week; I forgot about that.
Its a long way away for Syndication for Nikita. They be better to dump it. CW should try another scifi show to work better with SPN on friday.
My predictions:
ABC:
Cancelled:
Body Of Proof
Cougar Town
GCB
Missing
The River
Renewed:
Castle (New timeslot)
Don’t Trust That B (13 Episodes)
Grey’s Anatomy
Happy Endings
Modern Family
Once Upon A Time
Private Practice (Final Season – 13 Episodes)
Revenge
Scandal (13-15 Episodes – Midseason)
Suburgatory
The Middle
Last Man Standing will be renewed if they want to try a comedyblock on Friday! Otherwise it will be cancelled
CBS:
Cancelled:
A Gifted Man
NY 22
Unforgettable
CSI: NY
Rob
Renewed:
CSI: Miami (Final Season)
Two And A Half Men
Rules of Engagement depens on another Comedyblock!
CW:
Cancelled:
Nikita
Ringer
The L.A. Compley
The Secret Circle
Renewed:
Gossip Girl (Final Season)
Hart Of Dixie
FOX:
Cancelled:
Alcatraz
The Finder
Renewed:
Touch (13 Episodes)
NBC:
Cancelled:
Are You There, Chelsea?
Awake
Bent
Harry’s Law
Renewed:
30 Rock (Final Season 13 Episodes)
Community
Law & Order: SVU
Parenthood (For 18 Episodes again)
Parks & Recreation
The Office
Up All Night (13 Episodes)
Whitney (13 Episodes)
NBC has to to something with the comedy block on Thursday!
30 Rock will end next year and i’m not sure how long The Office can be on the air. It’s old, cast members are probably leaving and the ratings dropped. Community isn’t a rating hit either.
It would be wise to announce a final season for all 3 shows but they can’t.