ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More
Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.
5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey’s Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.
5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.
5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.
5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don’t Trust The B—- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
|Body Of Proof||10%||5%|
|Last Man Standing||60%||70%|
|Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23||80%||85%|
|Once Upon A Time||100%||100%|
No singnificant difference between Robert’s and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it’s now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.
To address the picky commenters out there who’ll otherwise whine “You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!”, please take all of my guesses above 50% as “will be renewed” and those below 50% as “will be canceled” and you may interpret the “distance” from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
For those who’d like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I’ll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Charlie’s Angels *||canceled||0.48|
|Work It! *||canceled||0.61|
|Cougar Town||:| :| :|||0.64|
|Body Of Proof*||:oops:||0.66|
|Man Up *||canceled||0.66|
|GCB||:| :| :|||0.80|
|Scandal||:) :) :) :)||0.83|
|Last Man Standing||:) :) :) :)||0.88|
|Castle||:) :) :) :)||0.90|
|Private Practice||:) :) :) :)||0.93|
|Revenge||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.98|
|Suburgatory||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.99|
|Happy Endings*||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.01|
|The Middle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.02|
|Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23||:) :) :) :)||1.02|
|Desperate Housewives||final season||1.06|
|Once Upon A Time||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.29|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.44|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||2.00|
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.