ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Lexie

    As long as Private Practice gets a full season with 22 episodes I’ll be happy!

  • Phil

    Scandal is wasting a time slot.

  • Lisa

    “Good Christian Bitches” (AKA GCB, Yes that was the creator’s and ABC’s original name before they changed it to “belle”) should have never aired in the first place. The fact that ABC is okay with ever even entertaining the idea of a show with that name, tells me what kind of network they are.
    Try replacing “Christian” any other religion, mock them as Christians are mocked then imagine what would occur. Exactly. I am not even religious and I am offended.

  • Julia

    What’s Robert’s reasoning for only 60% for Scandal? I think it’s a pretty good bet for renewal, but 60% seems to be hedging a bit.

  • Avery

    2012-13 Schedule
    Sunday
    8:00 Once Upon a Time
    9:00 Beauty and the Beast
    10:00 GCB

    Monday
    8:00 DTWS
    10:00 Castle

    Tuesday
    8:00 Happy Endings
    8:30 Pairie Dogs
    9:00 Counter Culture
    9:30 Apt. 23
    10:00 DTWS Results Show

    Wednesday
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Suburgatory
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 Last Man Standing
    10:00 Revenge

    Thursday
    8:00 Wipeout: Fall Edition
    9:00 Grey’s
    10:00 Scandal

    Friday
    8:00 Malibu Country
    8:30 Awesometown
    9:00 The Manzanis
    9:30 How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life
    10:00 20/20

  • Bee

    provided a decision doesn’t come before thursday, if scandal can get another 2.0 or above this week, i think it’s got the renewal down. if it comes down to it, i hope they renew it over GCB. although i’m hoping that they both return.

  • Avery

    TGIF will MOST likely return since ABC wants more sitcoms!

  • CrimTV

    I really don’t think ABC should renew Last Man Standing, it’s ratings have been awful recently

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “provided a decision doesn’t come before thursday, if scandal can get another 2.0 or above this week, i think it’s got the renewal down. if it comes down to it, i hope they renew it over GCB. although i’m hoping that they both return.”

    I doubt any more episode ratings matter to existing shows. I’d be surprised if there are any existing shows who’s fate isn’t either already decided or just dependent on agreement on contract terms.

  • Bunny

    There might be chance for Cougar Town since there are rumors that ABC is not satisfied with their young,hip comedy pilots but their dramas and TGIF-like comedies are doing great.

  • Bookworm

    LOl@Julia- I was thinking the same thing. Though I do favor Bill out of the duo and that’s not only for Scandal.

    Rob seems a little more radical in his numbers, he gives comedy’s the higher rated number but is just giving blows to dramas. Bill seems to be a little more positive; Rob is kind of pessimistic in all of his pickings, minus the comedys. BOP is a hard one to sell but I do see the chance of it coming back.

  • Tom

    Missing 10% (International production could be cheap enough for filler)
    The River 0%
    BOP 20% (Procedurals plug in better as spackle.)
    CT 0% (Dead (on ABC) when they cut the order.)
    GCB 40%
    LMS 60% (ABC is ordering a lot of comedies, and it keeps dropping.)
    DTTBI23 90% (ABC tends to give their comedies another year to prove themselves.)
    Scandal 70%
    PP 95%
    Castle 100%
    Revenge 100%
    Suburg 100%
    HE 90%
    Middle 100%
    OUAT 100%
    GA 100%
    MF 100%

  • Carmen

    I hope that Cougar Town does land on its feet somewhere.

    But I have to say that I enjoy all 6 of ABC’s comedies on Monday and Wednesday

  • Ultima

    Missing – 0%
    River – 0%
    Body of Proof – 0%
    GCB – 20%
    Scandal – 60%
    Last Man Standing – 85%
    Happy Endings – 90%
    Castle – 100%
    Private Practice – 100%
    Revenge – 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%
    Once Upon a Time – 100%
    The Middle – 100%
    Suburgatory – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%
    Don’t Trust the B – 100%

  • zerg

    2 dramas at 100% :)

    GCB,BOP,The River,CT,Missing dead

    Scandal midseason

    PP final season

  • Bookworm

    Also, I do believe that CT is done with TBS taking it. The talks seem to be pretty serious and I’m glad ABC is not just dumping it but giving another network the chance to continue it.

  • Sports Preemption

    Before I even read the post, wanna start off by saying I love the PTI picture.

    Oh, and I know you guys say you don’t post it, but is there somewhere I can go to find Saturday’s finals?

  • Bunny

    Scared for Happy Endings..

  • Sports Preemption

    Having read it, I agree on the Scandal, PP, and Castle getting renewed, and GCB and BOP more likely than not being cancelled.

    For comedies, I think they keep LMS and Apt 23, and let TBS have Cougar Town.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I’m glad ABC is not just dumping it but giving another network the chance to continue it.”

    If recent reports are correct, ABC TV network is “dumping it” just like any canceled show.

    ABC Studios is shopping it around, just like many studios shop around many canceled shows.

    Once a show is canceled, the studio that produces it can try whatever they want.

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