ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Six

    How Can They Cancel “Body Of Proof”? I Find It Way Better Than Some Of The Shows That Are Getting Renewed. Thank God “General Hospital” Got Saved, But Why Save A Show Like “Two Broke Girls”? That Show Is Just Plain Garbage!

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    CASTLE – 91 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 25 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 28 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 23(-2)

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 88 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 27 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 26 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 26 (+3)
    So happy these got renewed…. Made my day :-)

  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 91 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 25 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 23 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 28 (+2)

    From the amazing Modern Family episode 3.22 “Disneyland” –
    Gloria: Fake money has changed you. Where is the Manny who used to stop and smell the roses?
    Manny: He took a bath on a solar upstart in San Jose.
    (Manny’s response was doubly funny for me ‘cos I live in the same town where Solyndra was until they went belly-up. It’s still a constant conversation topic around here.)

  • Rebecca

    GCB was just canceled :-( Had a feeling it would be, too bad.

    @tvfreak
    I think I loved everything about that MF Disneyland episode (and I’m going there for six days in October). Everyone had good story lines.

  • tvfreak

    @Rebecca: Yeah, that episode was the best MF in a long time. Too bad there’s still two more to go this season. It would have made a great season finale.

  • tvfreak
  • Yoona Lee

    Please don’t cancel Missing! I look forward to watching this show with my family every week.

  • Rebecca

    @tvfreak
    It sure would have been a great season finale. Let’s hope the next two episodes are good, too. More to enjoy.

    @Nick
    Have you caught up on Castle yet?

  • Mary Ann H

    OMG–/ Suburgatory and Happy Endings are horrible. The teenager, Tessa, does not look or act like a 16 yr old. I hate those two shows. Bring back Body of Proof, GCB, and Last Man Standing.

  • RHONJd

    Wow, Bill and Robert were dead wrong with Body Of Proof. And I’m not gonna lie, I thought it would be canceled too! Body of Proof renewal is probably the most shocking renewal of the year! Oh.,wait…..Gossip Girl was renewed. Gossip Hirl is the lowest rated show on broadcast tv! Really, not even a million viewers!!!!!

  • jenn

    Just read body of proof has been renewed:)

  • Captain

    @Lisa
    There’s a difference between mocking a majority than mocking a minority. Picking on the big guy is a parody, picking on the little guy is cruel. A show called White Jerks would be funny, a show called Asian Jerks would be racist. Christians are in power which is what makes them ripe for being picked on. Don’t see why people can’t wrap their heads around that. The funny thing is, the people who complain the hardest about that show are the people who’ve never seen an episode. “I don’t need to watch the show to formulate an opinion, I’ve read the title and seen a 12 second advert. That’s all the research I need to back-up my claims”

  • Netti

    ABC is crazy for canceling MISSING. It’s the best show on TV. Rethink!! More and more people are watching it, and once the DVD is released, that will draw more viewers in for the second season.

  • Sandy

    I so enjoy GCB. Every time I like a show, it gets cancelled. This one was funny. Too much seriousness on TV.

  • jrh

    Scandal just turned me off during the first show… but, I do hope they keep GCB and CASTLE… PP should also be let go… Stopped watching because of the storylines.

  • Rebecca

    @jrh
    Not sure about PP, but Castle was renewed and GCB was canceled yesterday. Scandal was renewed.

    @Sandy
    Yeah, it was light, fun entertainment. I know a few people who are upset GCB isn’t coming back. My sis is blasting ABC execs on FB, lol.

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 94 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 23 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 25 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 25 (-3)

    quote from MF [3.22]:
    Mitchell on phone with Cameron: We’re in Fantasyland, where are you? Okay, it’s Toon Town, not Toonton. You’ve been watching too much PBS.
    (later Mitchell calls Downtown Disney: Downton Disney)

  • GD

    Seriously, you really think GCB was mocking religion? It appears that point of view is more a reflection on your narrow minded perspective or perhaps it is your attempt to hide your reflection in the mirror that puts you squarely in the middle of some of the same people depicted in the show. When you take yourself that seriously no one else will. Just saying.

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    CASTLE – 97 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 20 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 27 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 23 (-2)

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