ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 100 (+3) Ding ding ding! We have a victor!
    THE MIDDLE – 22 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 24 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 21 (-2)

    Next voter, please remove Castle from the list. Also, votes will now be done in +3 and -3 only.

    From Pushing Daisies episode 1.01 “Pie-lette” (haha :) ) -
    Chuck: You can’t just touch someone’s life and just be done with it.
    Ned: Yes I can. That’s how I roll.

  • Nick

    These three are tied in my book… :-(

    THE MIDDLE – 22
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 21 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 24 (+3) Disneyland episode was epic! Lol

    “Rebecca, listen to me.” “So you can lie to me some more?”
    -Paul and Becca, Missing episode 1.08, “Answers”
    So sad this is going off the air…

  • lar01

    I would have traded Body of Proof, which started off a favorite but became tedious, boring, for Missing, which has been exciting and too new to dump.

  • Rebecca

    THE MIDDLE – 19 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 24 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 24

    It’ll be tough now. I love all three of these (and Castle).
    Quote from MF [3.22]:
    Claire: You might have the flu.
    Phil: A bunch of guys at work had the flu and we all drink orange juice out of the same carton. We should get cups.

  • Danie

    I LOVE MISSING! My son and I look forward to it every Thursday! Why can’t they just move it to a different time. Every time they make a show I like they cancel it. Maybe I should stop watching TV! I only watch it on Tuesday’s and Thursday also. DANG!

  • Nick

    THE MIDDLE – 16 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 24
    MODERN FAMILY – 27 (+3)

    • “Where do you think he’s going?”
    “I don’t know. That’s why we’re following him.”
    -Castle and Slaughter, Castle episode 3.21 “Headhunters”

  • tvfreak

    THE MIDDLE – 16
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 21 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 30 (+3)

    From Lost episode 2.22 “Three Minutes” -
    Jack: We were caught in a net.
    Sawyer: What the hell is that supposed to mean?
    Jack: It means we got caught in a net.
    Sawyer: Is that what they’re calling it these days?

  • kak

    GCB is fantastic im wondering why decent fun shows get cancelled also the shows you have coming up are stupid do you realize people watching any TV our women 30 and up. check demographics because you people our ruining TV.

  • Rebecca

    THE MIDDLE – 13 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 24 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 30

    quote from A23 [1.5]:
    Mark: [sorting coin change at coffee shop] Do you want the button or the Euro?
    June: The button. At least it’ll be worth something in a few years.

  • Nick

    THE MIDDLE – 10 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 24
    MODERN FAMILY – 33 (+3)

    • “He’s not a zombie, Castle, just a murderer.”
    -Esposito, Castle episode 4.22, “Undead Again”

  • tvfreak

    @Nick: I see you figured it out – nice avatar!

  • tvfreak

    THE MIDDLE – 10
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 21 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 36 (+3)

    From Castle episode 1.07 “Home Is Where The Heart Stops” -
    Beckett: The next time you show up at a crime scene without me, I’ll show you how my taser works.
    Castle: Promise?

  • tvfreak

    Voting is now moved to the R/C Wrap threads until the winners are chosen. Have fun!

  • nicole drozdowski

    Please dont cancel GCB!!!!! ITS SUCH A FUN SHOW!!!! like a new twist of house wives! Please keep it! I love it!

  • Sandra

    Missing is a great, fun, fast page show! We will miss it a lot !

  • steph

    What is the deal? Why are you cancelling the good shows like Missing, Body of Proof, etc. These shows actually make you think and take intelligence to write! Get rid of the mindless crap if you want to cancel something, cancel the reality TV junk. You are trying to make Americans brainless!

  • QP

    We all know that good programming has nothing to with what’s actually on TV. It’s just a marketing and advertising game; if you put crappy shows up against other crappy shows and they get great ratings it doesn’t make them a great show. Missing went up (in mid-season) against American Idol and The Big Bang Theory, both proven shows from prior seasons. It’s a great show but, failed because of POOR PLACEMENT BY ABC NETWORK EXECUTIVES. How many of the other crappy shows with high ratings would have made it against American Idol and The Big Bang Theory. Surely not:
    Last Man Standing – 85%
    Happy Endings – 90%
    Castle – 100%
    Private Practice – 100%
    Revenge – 100%
    Once Upon a Time – 100%
    The Middle – 100%
    Suburgatory – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%
    Don’t Trust the B – 100%

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