ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • TomSFBay

    I’m surprised by the 60% odds given for Scandal. I haven’t watched that show, but its numbers are really good. Considering how well PP has done on Tuesdays, I’d think ABC should pick up PP for a full final season and give Scandal the Thursday slot.

  • _JC

    Out of pure curiosity (since the percentages are so low it doesn’t really matter), why do either of you think Body of Proof’s chances of renewal are non-zero? Even for a 10PM show the ratings were terrible, and it’s nowhere near syndication.

  • Ultima

    Oops…

    Cougar Town – 0%

  • Bookworm

    @Bill Gorman

    You are correct, yes but I think the fact that they are clearly working with TBS to give them the show tells me that they aren’t just canceling it and letting it work out its own kinks. They are sitting down with another network and working out the possibility of it continuing on but on not on their network. They do own if, if I’m correct. I just like the show so I’m glad to hear about the possibility of it going somewhere else, even if ABC doesn’t want to renew it. We’ve seen a lot of shows that got dumped with no efforts or serious talk about Cable network pickups. Just to happy to hear the Cougartown is going to be going somewhere. ABC should probably do the same with BOP to Scifi or something.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Out of pure curiosity (since the percentages are so low it doesn’t really matter), why do either of you think Body of Proof’s chances of renewal are non-zero?”

    In my case, just spreading out the numbers for some variety. I’d be very surprised if it were renewed.

  • 47th

    With Cougar Town’s future looking somewhat good (it’s either continuing or having a season finale that wraps up the series nicely) the only thing that concerns me is wether Private Practice will be back for a short season or a full one.

    I’ve had worse years with ABC’s series…last one with Brothers & Sisters’ situation was pretty dramatic.

  • Harris

    Pan Am was never technically cancelled. It should be added to the list, even with 0%

  • Bookworm

    By the way, Bill made my day! I’ve never got a response from a site owner! :D

  • Bunny

    If Cougar Town moves to TBS thn it’s time for them to change the name..

  • Gary A

    @ Bill,

    Based on your predictions and taking into account the reality shows ( DWTS, AFHV, etc. ) ABC will program only three new hours this fall. Or do you think that some of the for sure positive renewed shows will be held back until midseason or to fill in for failed shows?

    Just curious

  • Scott M

    Pretty much in agreement with everyting you guys have except for Happy Endings, which I would put at 75%. 4 of its last 5 episodes did not have a new Modern Family as a lead in and it was getting ratings at about 80% of the ABC average in that period. There definitely is a chance it’s gone.

  • rob60990

    Cougar Town- 20%
    Missing – 5%
    River – 0%
    Body of Proof – 15%
    GCB – 30%
    Scandal – 65%
    Last Man Standing – 70%
    Happy Endings – 85%
    Castle – 100%
    Private Practice – 100%
    Revenge – 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%
    Once Upon a Time – 100%
    The Middle – 100%
    Suburgatory – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%
    Don’t Trust the B – 75%

  • Pinkle

    @Avery

    Counter Culture isn’t happening anymore. Also, it seems like some of the comedies on your Tuesday and Friday block don’t fit with the rest of the lineup:

    1. Last Man Standing after Modern Family won’t happen. While they are both family comedies, Modern Family is single cam and LMS is multi-cam. Both of these shows have different feels to them because of this and it often makes a block incompatible. Now, I am not saying that LMS would not benefit from Modern Family, but ABC needs to put a show there that will be a hit. In addition, LMS needs to anchor TGIF if it happens, and LMS is probably the only reason a TGIF revival was even considered. If LMS were a single-camera show, it would fit in on Wednesdays perfectly.

    2. Awesometown is a young, hip single camera comedy in a sea of multi-cam family comedies according to your schedule.

    3. I think ABC will put a drama Thursdays at 8pm. With CBS possibly moving TBBT to 9pm, the main threat at this timeslot will be gone.

    4.I am a bit shaky on DWTS results at 10pm, but I don’t have anything to say about what you could do with that, so I’ll stay quiet.

    Move Awesometown to where you had Counter Culture on Tuesdays, move Malibu Country to 8:30 on Fridays, and move LMS to 8pm on Fridays, put a single camera family comedy at 9:30 on Wednesdays, and have a female-skewing drama Thursdays at 8pm.

    I have a different schedule that I’ll post later, but your ABC schedule is definitely one of the best I’ve seen on this site this year.

  • Concerned Citizen

    Renewed: Modern Family, The Middle, Suburgatory, Happy Endings, Apartment 23, Last Man Standing, Once Upon a Time, Grey’s Anatomy, Revenge, Private Practice, Castle, Scandal

    Cancelled: Cougar Town, The River, Body of Proof, GCB, Missing

    New shows: Mistresses, Nashville, Devious Maids, Last Resort, 666 Park Ave., Malibu Country, The Family Trap, American Judy

  • r0ckmypants

    @Lisa – GCB ended this week, so feel free to GET OVER IT.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Based on your predictions and taking into account the reality shows ( DWTS, AFHV, etc. ) ABC will program only three new hours this fall.”

    I count 4.5 hours being replaced based on my predictions, which is slightly more than CBS will likely replace.

    Cougar Town
    Missing
    Body Of Proof
    Desperate Housewives
    GCB

    Plus, I think it’s reasonable to assume Private Practice is in line for a shortened final season, which effectively frees up half a timeslot in either Fall or Spring.

  • r0ckmypants

    @Pinkle – One of the best? Seriously? Avery has ABC only debuting one new drama and a sitcom that was never even filmed.

  • Bunny

    I wish NBC was like CBS in the way the network treated HIMYM..The show wasn’t a ratings hit in their earlier seasons but CBS were patient and let it grew an audience..so good luck to the new show that will get the modern Family lead-in because they will deff need it.

  • Bunny

    Ooops I meant ABC

  • Gary A

    Also wasn’t Missing a short term series to begin with – a beginning, middle and ending to the kidnapping of Michael?

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