ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Teag

    Ahhh The River! Want a second season of that!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Also wasn’t Missing a short term series to begin with – a beginning, middle and ending to the kidnapping of Michael?”

    It wasn’t intended to be. Had it gotten the ratings, they’d have continued it somehow.

  • Gary A

    @ Bill,

    By my calculations, you have 9 hours sure to be renewed, i have figured 7 hours of reality/unscripted returning ( DWTS 3 hrs, Friday night programming another 3 and AFHV 1 hour ), college football on Saturday ( 3 hours ) leaving 3 hours open in the fall – unless osme shows sure to be back are pushed back to midseason.

    Also, it would appear that ABC does have only 3 and 1/2 hours open ( Tues @ 8:30 & 10, Thurs @ 8 & Sun @ 9 ).

    A lot of the shows shared time periods this year and that may make a difference in the calculations.

  • Agnes

    Surely ABC needs tyo program an extra hour for Tuesdays as well for where The River aired outside of DTWS.

    Anyway, I can’t see LMS getting renewed. It started strong and then slumped. That 0.88 in the index is far too weighted to older epsiodes surely? It doesn’t seem like the type of comedy that will massively rebound in the fall.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Also, it would appear that ABC does have only 3 and 1/2 hours open ( Tues @ 8:30 & 10, Thurs @ 8 & Sun @ 9 ).”

    What about Sunday at 10?

    But you’re right, to get 4.5 hours open in the Fall, PP will have to be held until spring.

  • Max

    May 15, 2012, is the ABC upfronts, I know what ABC shows will come back or won’t come back next season:

    Coming back: Castle, Don’t Trust the B- in Apartment 23, Happy Endings, Last Man Standing, Private Practice, Revenge, Suburgatory, Grey’s Anatomy, Modern Family, Once Upon A Time, & The Middle
    On the bubble: GCB, & Scandal
    Won’t come back: Body of Proof, Missing, The River, & Cougar Town (might move to TBS)
    Desperate Housewives – you will be missed

  • Tony ^_^

    Missing: Cancelled.
    The River: Cancelled.
    Body Of Proof: Cancelled.
    Cougar Town: Based on ratings, cancelled.
    GCB: Could go both ways. But if it’s Renewed, it’s staying where it’s at.
    Last Man Standing: 13-Episode Renewal. More based on the performance of those episodes.
    Don’t Trust The B in Apt 23: Renewed.
    Scandal: Renewed.
    Private Practice: Renewed.
    Castle: Renewed.
    Revenge: Definitely Renewed!! :D
    Suburgatory: Renewed.
    Happy Endings: Renewed. Maybe move to a new night.
    The Middle: Renewed.
    Once Upon A Time: No Doubt Renewal!
    Grey’s Anatomy: Renewed.
    Modern Family: Renewed.

  • Ultima

    @Gary A

    ABC will have at least four hours of new programming in the fall. Friday will have either a new reality show or TGIF (or a drama). If they want an additional sitcom or drama, they’ll have to hold a returning show for midseason.

  • J.G.

    There are rumors that ABC is super-dissatisfied with their comedy pilots, so that might work in LMS’s favor.

    Renewed:

    LMS, Apt. 23, Scandal, GCB, Private Practice (only LMS gets a 22-episode order)

  • Ultima

    @Max
    I know what ABC shows will come back or won’t come back next season
    On the bubble

    If you knew what was coming back, then nothing should be on the bubble…

  • Jase L.

    @Avery
    “Tuesday
    8:00 Happy Endings”

    Happy Endings is NOT a 8:00 show.

  • Chris

    Happy to hear LMS is getting renewed. Definitely deserves another season. If it performs how it did these past 4 episodes in the spring, then it’ll get canceled but if it performs the way it did for the first 19 episodes next fall, it’ll do fine. LMS gets a bad rep for spring ratings. It performed well for fall and winter but when spring destroyed all of network tv’s ratings people all of a sudden come out the woodwork calling for its head. Do you people realize that The Middle and Suburgatory almost got a 1.9 last week? LMS will come back strong next fall with the type of promotion it had when it started; the type of promotion that was strong in the fall and winter but utterly nonexistent in the spring. Especially if it’s a revived TGIF block

  • Julia

    Maybe my thinking regarding Cougar Town is way off, but my theory is that shopping it to TBS shows that ABC Studios is very motivated to get it to syndication levels. They would prefer to have someone else foot the bill while doing so, but it seems to me that it will continue one way or another, either on TBS or ABC. If a deal with TBS cannot be worked out, ABC will get it for close to free.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Maybe my thinking regarding Cougar Town is way off, but my theory is that shopping it to TBS shows that ABC Studios is very motivated to get it to syndication levels. They would prefer to have someone else foot the bill while doing so, but it seems to me that it will continue one way or another, either on TBS or ABC. If a deal with TBS cannot be worked out, ABC will get it for close to free.”

    It certainly shows they are motivated, but were it to air again on ABC, how much each episode costs is moot, it’s just internal Disney accounting.

    However, the cost to ABC is 30 minutes of their schedule, which is a real opportunity cost.

  • TVDude

    I agree with all the predictions, although I think LMS is more like 100%. Disney practically owns Tim Allen and I have no doubt that it’ll be back despite it not being rated as highly as the Wednesday comedies. Still, agree with the black and white predictions completely.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    I don’t know if ABC keeping CT would be an “opportunity cost” if the end result is getting a show into syndication three years earlier than whatever might replace it. That is where the big money is, which is most important, but it doesn’t help that it will be coming sooner.

  • tvfreak

    Game time!

    CASTLE – 76
    THE MIDDLE – 32
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 27
    MODERN FAMILY – 32

  • rob60990

    “Happy Endings is NOT a 8:00 show.”

    Have you ever watched 2 Broke Girls?

  • The End

    Once Upon a Time – 0 percent – Evil Queen Regina wins, everyone in Storybrooke are stuck in the curse forever.

    I know I’ll have to put this, so joking of course. This show if anything is one of the best shows ABC has had in years, right after Lost. If anything I hope Once Upon a Time goes on for at least another 3-4 seasons, they will have to mix things up a little though, by perhaps introducing a few more characters and a different layer to the curse that even when they’ve remembered has them stuck there for longer.

    Regina/Evil Queen will clearly be the big bad for a while. Though it wouldn’t surprise me if they introduce someone worse.

  • Robert McGovern

    I’d love GCB to get renewed, if nothing else just for Annie Potts :)

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