ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Common Anomaly

    Not long ago, I don’t remember when
    That’s when Fox said House was going to end
    Well they said he might die easy of a broken heart disease
    As I listened to fans who would be very much displeased

    I see excuses comin’ up at the funerals of the gone
    The misinformed swarm of Harry’s Law
    The show always seemed such a waste
    It always had a petty case
    So I wondered how it hung around in fourth place

    [?horus:]
    Hey, your outcries mean little
    Nothing is forever
    Your show has got to get ratings better than
    the Middle
    But Bill & another fella
    They put it all together
    So we can see which shows are going home
    With one headline

    It will be cold
    It’s called Cancellation Bear Day
    And your show can’t break away from his raid
    But there’s got to be complaining
    Some swear here in front of me
    Through this maze of ugliness and greed
    And I see sign up ahead
    Warning of the carnarge
    Sayin’ all’s not good and that your show is dead
    You’ll rant until you’re out of breath
    It ran until there were no episodes left
    It hit the end-get off the window ledge

    [chorus]

    Well this cast is old
    The lead looks just like a beat up truck
    I turn the channel, but the channel doesn’t turn
    Well its’ groundswells with cheap wine & in vain threats (or TBS)
    Cougar Town was always such a mess
    Sometimes I think I’d like to watch it burn
    I’m not alone, and I feel just like everybody else
    Man, its ratings changed, but it should have been its name
    But somewhere here in between the fan’s calls of pilot dreams
    I think of its death which is just thrillin’ me

    [chorus]

  • Pinkle

    @r0ckmypants

    Why do you think I gave Avery some constructive criticism? And compared to other schedules THIS YEAR on this site where virtually the entire lineup is changed, theirs has been one of the better ones.

    Please remember that none of us work for networks and that these are fantasy schedules so they are all going to be different. I even said that my schedule was different from theirs.

    You don’t have to like Avery’s schedule if you don’t want to, and that is your opinion, just like my opinion is that their schedule has been one of the better ABC schedules posted this year.

  • Ultima

    @Jase L
    Happy Endings is NOT a 8:00 show.

    While obviously you want to put family oriented shows on earlier to maximize your audience, that doesn’t mean the 8pm hour is exclusive to family shows. It’s still primetime, there’s no additional content restrictions.

  • Tommy Mickens

    Jesus, Bill Gorman, tell ABC to renew some shows already so we don’t have to deal with so many! Anyway, here’s my final picks!

    Missing – 0%
    The River – 0%
    Body of Proof – 0%
    Cougar Town – 45% (depends on if another net will take it)
    GCB – 49%
    Last Man Standing – 51%
    Scandal – 55%
    Private Practice – 90%
    Don’t Trust the B in Apt. 23 – 95%
    Castle – 95%
    The Middle – 100%
    Suburgatory – 100%
    Happy Endings – 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%
    Revenge – 100%
    Once Upon a Time – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%

  • Marsinvestigations1

    Lisa, you’re not even religious and you are offended? Shut it. I don’t like the show. I’m offended by how poorly written it is. It’s satire. They aren’t calling Christians “bitches” the Christian women the book/show depict happen to be bitches. With all the atrocities committed around the world due to religion THIS is what offends you? Get a clue…

  • bran

    I love seeing happy endings at 100% for both of you. Made my day lol

  • Jared

    GCB is such a light..funny..quirky show..Gigi and Cricket crack me up ..id love to see a second season

  • zen

    My final predictions:

    Missing – 0%
    The River – 0%
    Cougar Town – 0% (effectively canceled by ABC in Nov. 2011, when they cut its episode order)
    Body of Proof – 15%
    GCB – 25%
    Last Man Standing – 70% (depends on whether ABC finds a new multi-cam sitcom to pair with LMS)
    Scandal – 70%
    Don’t Trust the B in Apt. 23 – 80%
    Private Practice – 90%
    Happy Endings – 90%
    Castle – 100%
    The Middle – 100%
    Suburgatory – 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%
    Revenge – 100%
    Once Upon a Time – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%

  • Oliver

    Last week The Middle got 2.0, Suburgatory got 2.0, and Last Man Standing got 1.5. That’s a huge difference in ratings.

    I can only see LMS surviving if ABC attempt to revive TGIF (which will inevitably fail). If ABC axe it, then I can see Fox picking it up if only because Fox struggle with live-action comedies.

  • Nick

    I (surprisingly) agree with Bill and Robert, but I think they’re giving Scandal and Apt 23 too much chance. LMS should be bigger, as it got 3s in the fall!

  • katelyn

    ABC will be renewing 2 bubble shows. They are planning to renew either Body of Proof, Scandal, or GCB. Right now its probably going to be Scandal and Body of Proof. Paul Lee wants to keep variety in the schedule since most of the new pilots are soap operas.

  • disney rocks

    AFHV should be cut to a half-hour.

    A new sitcom or LMS should be put at 7 or 730.

  • s0303

    i think cougar town was in trouble before this season even began…they weren’t going to start airing it until march (except work it bombed) and cut the season to 15 episodes…

  • katelyn

    Remember people these are predictions what the predictions are and what actually happens could be completely different. In the end its going to depend on what pilots get picked up.

  • SJ

    Missing – 0%
    The River – 0%
    Cougar Town – 0%

    Body of Proof – 33%
    Scandal – 51%
    GCB – 51%
    Last Man Standing – 60%
    Private Practice – 95%

    Castle – 100%
    Revenge – 100%
    Once Upon A Time – 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%
    The Middle – 100%
    Suburgatory – 100%
    Apartment 23 – 100%
    Happy Endings – 100%

  • The End

    @katelyn

    Indeed, but what makes them credible is that Bill and Robert are almost always right. Not like either of them will say that over and over but if you’ve been here long enough to see, you’l see that what they say has credibility. More so than 99.9 percent of posters here. I think the only people besides people who work in the industry who can predict them wrong are fans of shows doomed to be cancelled that get a last season pick up out of nowhere. Like Fringe.

    That doesn’t happen often.

  • Fake Me Out

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say Pan Am is a 100% lock on getting picked-up for next season!

    YMMV

    BTW, I don’t really think that, but if by some miracle it does occur I’ll look like a genius and if it doesn’t I’ll put it down to a bad interaction of cold medications … I can’t lose! :-)

  • SJ

    My final draft of the ABC 2012-2013 schedule

    Monday

    8pm-10pm DWTS / Christmas Specials + Celeb Wife Swap / The Bachelor / DWTS
    10pm Castle

    Tuesday

    8pm Last Man Standing
    8:30pm New Multi-Cam
    9pm DWTS Results / Happy Endings + Apartment 23 (13 episodes each) / DWTS Results
    10pm New Drama

    Wednesday

    8pm The Middle
    8:30pm Suburgatory
    9pm Modern Family
    9:30pm New Single-Cam
    10pm Revenge

    Thursday

    8pm New Drama
    9pm Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm Scandal (10-13 episodes)

    Friday

    8pm New Multi-Cam
    8:30pm New Multi-Cam
    9pm Primetime: WWYD OR Body of Proof (13 episodes)
    10pm 20/20

    Sunday

    7pm America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8pm Once Upon A Time
    9pm New Drama
    10pm GCB (10-13 episodes)

    Mid-season: Private Practice (18 episodes, final), Shark Tank, Winter Wipeout (if needed)

    Obviously I know some parts of the schedule aren’t going to work out, like the Happy Endings/Apartment 23 duo, which is a disaster waiting to happen. Also, I know that trying to launch dramas in the same time periods (Thu 8pm, Tue 10pm) seems like banging your head against the wall, but this schedule isn’t necessarily what I think should happen, it’s what I think ABC will do. They have never been very creative in their scheduling.

  • Nick

    Missing 0%
    The River 0%
    Body Of Proof 18%
    Cougar Town 43%
    GCB 30%
    Last Man Standing 75%
    Don’t Trust The B in Apt 23 74%
    Scandal 44% A 2.0 show, even a steady one, will not get renewed.
    Private Practice 86%
    Castle 100%
    Revenge 100%
    Suburgatory 100%
    Happy Endings 75%
    The Middle 100%
    Once Upon A Time 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy 100%
    Modern Family 110%
    lots of changes….

  • PoohBear

    I love Cougar Town! I find it really hilarious… I don’t know why they would cancel it and I hope that they don’t.

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