ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Jared

    Final Predictions for ABC

    Cancellations
    Body of Proof: International money and high total viewers aside, the only place that ABC could feasibly put this show given its performance in the demo is on Friday. Yet ABC’s entirely unscripted Fridays have routinely been winning either winning the night in the demo or coming very close. ABC may want a procedural, but I don’t think it has room for this one.

    Cougar Town: Cancelled by ABC (the network) as the lowest rated of the 7 current comedies currently on air. However, the Cul-de-Sac crew will live on (with substantial budget cuts across the board, unfortunately) as ABC Studios will successfully complete the deal with TBS to pick up Cougar Town for 2 seasons of 15 episodes each. That’ll be enough to get the show to 91 episodes and into syndication, where ABC can recoup its losses. A win for the fans, a win for the studio, a loss for Courtney Cox’s wallet.

    GCB: Call this one a hunch. Looking at ABC’s development, I see a lot of soapy, female-skewing pilots that seem likely to get picked up, including Mistresses (which was ordered straight to series), Devious Maids (a Marc Cherry production, more of a ‘true’ successor to DH), Nashville (seems to be a lock) and Americana. Like most people, I think GCB and Scandal are in an either/or situation. I think they’ll go with Shonda Rhimes and find something else to fill their buzzy soap niche.

    Missing: Even if the international market is significant enough to keep Missing alive, I seriously doubt that it will ever air in-season again. It’ll be summer or (more likely) bust.

    Pan Am: Only mentioned here because as some will insist, it hasn’t been OFFICIALLY cancelled. It will be OFFICIAL next Tuesday.

    The River: Eight episodes and out. The Magus is sinking, and Netflix is nowhere in sight.

    Renewed:
    Castle: Receives a well-deserved full season order, more than enough to get it to syndication numbers. May vacate the post-DWTS slot. On a personal note, I thought the season finale was fantastic. That’s how you pay off four years of romantic tension, Andrew Marlowe.

    Don’t Trust the B in Apt. 23: Renewed for 13 episodes, with the option for more if it can hold up away from Modern Family in the fall.

    Grey’s Anatomy: Renewed for a full season, though some of the cast will be back for only a reduced number of episodes. This show has got another three years left, at least.

    Happy Endings: Renewed, but probably gets held for midseason with a shortened order. Meet the new Cougar Town.

    Last Man Standing: Renewed for a full season, despite a bad spring. ABC will give it a chance with a compatible multi-cam on Tuesdays. If it can’t reclaim some of its old viewership, it could be Friday bound.

    The Middle: Full Season renewal. This show is a self-starter, a rare and valuable commodity these days.

    Modern Family: Full season renewal, obviously. Only question is if it will be for multiple seasons once they lock down the cast with new contracts.

    Once Upon A Time: Full season renewal. ABC will need to be careful not to overexpose this one – pedigree aside, this show isn’t Lost (not even close). If it plays its cards right, however, it’s got a real winner on its hands.

    Private Practice: Renewed for a 13 episode final season, probably on Tuesdays in the fall.

    Revenge: Full season renewal. For my money, this was the biggest surprise of the season, both in terms of its success and in terms of how much I personally enjoyed it. That being said, this type of show tends to burn hot and fast, and thing have the potential to go astray very quickly. This will be one of the most interesting shows to track in terms of both ratings and fan response during Season 2.

    Scandal: Renewed for 13 episodes behind Grey’s Anatomy, with the option for more if it can grow or remain as steady as it has been this spring. This is the other half of the GCB hunch I mentioned above. Since Private Practice is likely ending and ABC seems unlikely to pick up The Gilded Lily pilot, I think they’ll want to keep Shonda happy, and Scandal will probably receive a big promotional push in the fall.

    Suburgatory: Full season renewal. It retained essentially the Middle’s entire audience, so it’s not going anywhere.

  • katelyn

    @ The End
    You never know the ABC executives could suprise us. Till they annouce the renwels your guess is as good as mine. In the end these are all guesses and predictions no matter which way you see it. If their right good for them but its still up to Paul Lee.

  • Fred

    MISSING- 0 chance. Although I enjoy this show!
    RIVER- 0. My son loved it. 100% gone
    BOP- 25%. I am more optimistic about this one. Ratings have improved.
    CT-25. My favrite comedy. I would follow it anywhere.
    GCB-10. My family like this. But I’m pessimistic it doesn’t have much hope.
    LMS-25. Might work with other family sitcoms like The Middle. TGIF??
    DTTBIAPT-75. Deserves a renewal. Positive press and buzz. Pair with HE?
    SCANDAL-75. Fairly steady performer. Deserves another season.
    PP-100. Suprisingly, doing fine on Tuesday. Doesn’t need GA. WILL RETURN!
    Castle-100 Top rated for a 10:00 ABC show.
    REVENGE-100 Recent ratings declines aren’t enough to hurt chances.
    SUB-100. Ratings are similar to The Middle. Has to return.
    HE-100 Mixed reviews. Inconsistent quality. But when its good, its HILARIOUS
    MIDDLE-100 Most consistent comedy on ABC. Great family sitcom. MUST RETURN!
    OUAT-100. BEST NEW SHOW THIS SEASON. RATINGS ARE FANTASTIC. LOVE THIS SHOW!!
    GA-100 Highest rated ABC drama. Long running show will may end past 2013.
    MODERN-100 Highest rated ABC comedy. Great reviews. But overrated. Lower rated Middle, CT and HE are sometimes funnier. Ratings probably have peaked already.

    I really enjoyed so much on ABC in recent seasons. Even the ones no longer here: Life On Mars, Flash Forward, V, No Ordinary Family, Better With You, Mr. Sunshine and Pan Am.

  • Julia

    I don’t know if ABC keeping CT would be an “opportunity cost” if the end result is getting a show into syndication three years earlier than whatever might replace it. That is where the big money is, which is most important, but it doesn’t help that it will be coming sooner.

    That’s my thinking. And ABC Studios hasn’t had any comedies go into syndication in a long time, with their next possible opportunity (Happy Endings) still 3 seasons out. ABC the network can dump the show wherever they want. There’s plenty of dead weight even after all the new series are picked up, so I don’t really see it as opportunity cost.

  • Mark

    MONDAY:
    8pm – DWTS
    10pm – Americana

    TUESDAY:
    8pm – DWTS Results
    9pm – Don’t Trust the B in Apartment 23
    9:30pm – How To Live With Your Parents
    10pm – Castle

    WEDNESDAY:
    8pm – The Middle
    8:30pm – Suburgatory
    9pm – Modern Family
    9:30pm – American Judy
    10pm – Revenge

    THURSDAY:
    8pm – Last Resort
    9pm – Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm – Scandal

    FRIDAY:
    8pm – Shark Tank
    9pm – Last Man Standing
    9:30pm – Malibu Country
    10pm – 20/20

    SUNDAY:
    8pm – Once Upon A Time
    9pm – 666 Park Avenue
    10pm – Devious Maids

    MIDSEASON:
    Mistresses
    Nashville
    Gilded Lilys
    Untitled Mandy Moore
    Cougar Town

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “That’s my thinking. And ABC Studios hasn’t had any comedies go into syndication in a long time, with their next possible opportunity (Happy Endings) still 3 seasons out. ABC the network can dump the show wherever they want. There’s plenty of dead weight even after all the new series are picked up, so I don’t really see it as opportunity cost.”

    Little or no opportunity cost for ABC Studios (presumably they’re not facility or personnel constrained), but taking up a half hour of the ABC network’s primetime schedule for a ratings loser is definitely an opportunity cost.

  • Fred

    Hope your right about CT. I Really enjoy it.
    This type of sitcom (like Scrubs before it) is a love it or hate it kind of comedy. Wish more loved it like me.
    Same situation with much of NBC’s Thursday Night sitcoms. CT would fit in perfect over there.

  • Valerie

    Private Practice deserves full season order.

  • Rebecca

    Rooting for GCB to return. It’s a fun, light show and I actually know some people who watch it and enjoy it. Also rooting for Castle, Middle, MF, HE, CT, OUAT…that is about it. I wouldn’t mind if A23 and LMS came back either, but if they didn’t, oh well.

  • Brian

    I see OUAT, Revenge, GCB, and Scandal getting renewed :)

  • Kelly L.

    I am thrilled ABC is bringing back a Friday night comedy lineup for next year but I’m worried as well.

    When TGIF was successful, it was the 1990′s. Now I am not so sure people will turn back to network television on Friday evenings.

  • Fred

    @Rebecca

    Don’t worry, almost everything you like will most likely be renewed. The only exception is GCB (my family enjoys it) I’m almost sure it is the weakest ABC 10:00 show at the moment. Long running PP (wife loves it) does performs better than fresh new GCB. That may pose a problem for renewal chances. We shall soon see very soon.

    I’m so worried about CT. It would fit right in on NBC Thursday (about the same ratings as most of them), but TBS is the rumoured network.
    Rather CT air on free network tv. Better chance to gain more fans. Not everyone wants or can pay for tv.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I am thrilled ABC is bringing back a Friday night comedy lineup for next year but I’m worried as well.”

    If ABC does schedule that, there’s a 100% chance that the TV media completely swoons over the idea.

  • Fred

    @Kelly L.

    How are you so sure ABC will bring back TGIF? I heard rumours but nothing concrete. If so, my family will LOVE it!!
    My entire family used to enjoy all the funny light sitcoms Friday night to end the week. But not so sure how it will do today. ABC owned Disney Channel seems to have the night locked up in the comedy dept. Plus ABC is making $$ with low budget programing on Friday right now. Again, we shall soon see.

  • Scandal

    As long as PP and Scandal are renewed I’m good to go.

  • Sid

    Renewed:
    Modern Family
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Once Upon a Time
    Don’t Trust The B!
    The Middle
    Happy Endings
    Suburgatory
    Revenge
    Private Practice
    Castle
    SCANDAL
    Last Man Standing

    Cancelled:
    GCB
    Cougar Town
    Body of Proof
    MISSING
    The River

  • MJDB

    Predictions:

    Missing-0%
    Pan Am-0%
    The River-0%
    Body of Proof-15%
    Cougar Town-0% (on ABC)
    GCB-35%
    Last Man Standing-80%
    Don’t Trust the B in Apartment 23-70%
    Scandal-70%
    Private Practice-95%
    Castle-100%
    Revenge-100%
    Suburgatory-95%
    Happy Endings-90%
    The Middle-100%
    Once Upon a Time-100%
    Grey’s Anatomy-100%
    Modern Family-100%

  • SJ

    ABC will likely bring back comedies on Fridays. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll dub it “TGIF”. It’s 2012, it may be time for a new slogan.

    Also, may I ask why some of you are giving Scandal double the chances at getting renewed than GCB? One’s averaging a 2.0, the other a 1.9. Is that really that big of a difference? Would you be predicting the same if they were averaging 2.1 and 2.0?

  • Kelly L.

    @Fred I was incorrect in my post and meant to type that IF the rumors of ABC bringing back a TGIF-type comedy lineup on Fridays are true, I would be happy but also worried.

  • Julia

    @Bill
    You know as well as I do that finding a free half hour on ABC is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. Even if they delay it until one of their new shows fail, or stick it during winter hiatus, there’s room to pick up everything they want and still have space left for Cougar Town. Sure, there could be the opportunity to pick up another show that will probably fail, but is that really opportunity cost, when you look at the track record? Isn’t taking up that spot to be filled with something that will probably be canceled within 13 episodes costing them (Disney) the opportunity to get a show to syndication?

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