ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Saul

    I’ve never seen an episode of GCB but I hope it gets renewed just to make the nutters howl more about its name.

  • Aaron

    Missing – 0%
    The River – 5%
    Cougar Town – 15%
    Body of Proof – 30%
    Last Man Standing – 40%
    Scandal – 55%
    GCB – 60%
    Private Practice – 75%
    Castle – 75%
    Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23 – 90%
    Happy Endings – 90%
    The Middle – 95%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%
    Suburgatory – 100%
    Once Upon a Time – 100%
    Revenge – 100%

  • Justin121

    GCB: Renewed 60%
    Scandal: Renewed 65%

    I have a strong feeling GCB is staying where it is or gets the DH timeslot and Scandal remains where it is.
    ABC will launch only two dramas in place of Missing and DH. There will be comedies and possibely Body of Proof on Friday. Tuesday is the wild card regarding the split between comedies/dramas/dancing.

  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 79 (+3) Epic season finale last night! :D
    THE MIDDLE – 30 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 24 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 34 (+2)

    “Every morning I bring you a cup of coffee, just so I can see a smile on your face. Because I think you are the most remarkable, maddening, challenging, frustrating, person I’ve ever met. And I love you Kate, and if that means anything to you, if you care about me at all, just don’t do this.”
    -Rick Castle, from Castle episode 4.23 “Always”

  • Avery

    @SJ
    When/if TGIF gets announces, it WILL be the biggest talk of the town for the 2012-13 season.

  • Jessie

    Body of Proof will get renewed as will Scandal.

  • Rebecca

    @Fred
    Yeah, if CT goes to TBS I’ll just have to remember to watch it online – the same as I do with Hot In Cleveland (on TVLand’s site). We’re most likely never getting our cable channels back, just regular “free” networks and PBS. I hope it just stays on ABC if it goes nowhere else.

    @tvfreak
    LOVED that scene in Castle. Watched it twice!

  • Steve

    @ Jared..I agree with you 100%

    Final Schedule Prediction:
    Sunday
    7pm America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8pm Once Upon A time
    9pm Revenge
    10pm Devious Maids

    Monday
    8pm Dancing
    10pm Castle

    Tuesday
    8pm Last Man Standing
    8:30pm Malibu Country
    9pm Dancing Results
    10pm Private Practice

    Note: Tuesday at 8pm is in question, but they might try LMS with a multi-camera comedy first before they ship it to Friday or cancel it.

    Wednesday
    8pm The Middle
    8:30pm Suburgatory
    9pm Modern Family
    9:30pm American Judy
    10pm Nashville

    American Judy and Nashville look good.

    Thursday
    8pm Last Resort
    9pm Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm Scandal or GCB (most likely Scandal)

    Note: I wanted Castle at 8pm, but I don’t think it will leave Monday at 10pm for consistency.

    Friday
    8pm Shark Tank
    9pm Primeime or Body of Proof
    10pm 20/20

    Note: It is winning in the demo, they won’t mess with it. Possibly LMS and Malibu Country on Friday instead of Primetime. In that case, maybe there would be 2 other comedies on Tuesday.

    Happy Endings and Don’t Trust the B – midseason
    Cougar Town – canceled
    GCB – canceled
    Body of Proof – canceled or Fridays (I still think it has a chance, and I think it would do well on Fridays – since its core audience is home :)
    Missing, Pan Am, The River – def. canceled
    Scandal will get a surprise renewal.

    2 new comedies and 3 new dramas will premiere in fall.

    What are your thoughts??

  • Kris

    This makes me want to shout REVENGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Steve

    @ Kris

    What do you mean?

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 76 (-3) Was this good last night? I still have to watch like 5 episodes. :-D
    THE MIDDLE – 32 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 27 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 32 (-2)

    “I read all your books. Mom told me not to, so I did.”
    -Michael, Missing Episode 1.08 “Answers”

    @Steve
    Since you asked for thoughts, Shark Tank and What Would You do? usually aren’t ready until midseason. Put Body of Proof, Wipeout, or TGIF (hint: Cougar Town… Cougar Town…).

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Castle and Revenge and I’m good to go.

    Body of Proof is doomed. I’ll miss Dana and Jeri, but they’ll be back on something else before another season goes by. The show was never compelling but it wasn’t that awful – it just had a very unsympathetic female lead role and a boring male lead. It never reproduced the twin female lead experience of Rizzoli and Isles which is the better medical crime drama.

  • Steve

    @Nick
    I agree with you, but I just don’t see them putting Cougar Town or any comedies on Friday, with the exception of Multi-Camera Comedies aka LMS, Malibu Country, etc. Although Cougar Town and a new single camera would not surprise me. I do not see them putting Don’t Trust the B or Happy Endings on Friday.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Julia,

    I think you explained the situation in regard to CT beautifully. At this point, they’ve invested so much in it that there is no reason not to get it to the finish line, even if that means picking up an additional pilot isn’t in the picture. And the fact is that the minute the first sitcom fails will be justification enough for having kept it around. ABC need no other justification, even though they have one: syndication.

    And you’re right; I can’t even remember the last time an ABC comedy was put into syndication. (Scrubs, which has ties to CT, incidentally, doesn’t really count, since it was already in syndication before it got to ABC… and ABC wasn’t part of the production, as far as I’m concerned; Scrubs will always be remember as an NBC show.)

  • Jared

    @Steve, I think that the schedule you’ve proposed looks makes a lot of sense, and is probably very similar to what ABC will be revealing on Tuesday. After a year where they picked up 13(!) new shows, 6 of which are likely to return, ABC will want stability and probably won’t premiere more than five new shows in the fall. Shoring up some of their sophomore shows (OUAT, Revenge, LMS, Suburgatory, Scandal, Don’t Trust the B) should definitely be a priority.

    On that note, one show I’ll be very interested to see how ABC schedules is Revenge. You’ve got them moving it to Sundays at 9, which I think is definitely a strong possibility. It skews young, so it makes sense to give it a lead-in with a large number of young viewers in OUAT. It’s soapy and female-skewing, which gives it a chance to inherit the DH audience and hold up against Sunday Night Football in the fall. And it’s generated a lot of buzz and critical acclaim, so it fits with the cable-style idea of networks saving ‘prestige’ dramas.

    The other side of the coin is that ABC has been struggling to fill the 10 PM slot on Wednesday forever, and Revenge is the first show in a while to pull a decent number there. Would ABC want to uproot a relative time period success for a new show that could fail? And do they want to save the post-OUAT slot for a ‘fantasy-tinged’ drama like Gotham, Beauty and the Beast, or 666 Park Avenue? I think that’s a riskier strategy than it seems for two reasons.

    One, I strongly believe that OUAT has been so successful because young parents in the 18-49 demo have been able to watch it with their kids before putting them to bed and getting ready for school/work on Monday (while the 9 PM hour may be the most watched generally, I think OUAT is the rare show that would actually take a hit if it were to be bumped back an hour). Those kids aren’t likely to stay up to watch another fantasy show at 9, especially one that’s likely to skew substantially darker. Two, as I noted in my previous post, Revenge is the kind of show that is likely to burn out hot and fast, and it could experience substantial audience decline if it doesn’t come back strong. It might actually be less of a risk for ABC to put it on Sunday, where it could attract a smaller, more patient adult audience, rather than after whatever new comedy follows Modern Family on Wednesday, who could tune if the tone of the two shows turns out not be incompatible.

    Overall, I think that a move to Sundays at 9 is probably the right call. I just don’t know if ABC will risk it. I guess we’ll find out on Tuesday.

  • A…

    Great for Revenge!!! I don’t really care where they put it as long as it gets good ratings.

  • chrisss

    @ TerryJacksonNYC

    You do realise that Scrubs was produced by ABC studios right?

  • Fred

    Reasons why Scandal has a much stronger shot at being renewed despite nearly the same rating:

    Not many 10:00PM slots or 1 hour slots for that matter.
    Scandal is the stronger show. It is more consistent ratings wise.
    Shondra Rhimes (Grey’s and PP) may be negotiating with ABC regarding granting Scandal a second season. ABC made plenty of $$ with Greys and even PP. PP has done well w/o the Grey’s lead in. So ABC may want to give Scandal more time to grow .
    GCB is highly controversial and gets mixed reviews.
    ABC may want to try Devious Maids instead. Devious Maids has the DH connection (same showrunner) and may be a more worthy DH replacement. GCB was supposed to be groomed to take over DH, but it can’t even come close to it in the ratings.
    When DH ( an 8 year old show )beats GCB (a shiny new show) by a wide margin it spells danger.

    Just an added note: PP is one of the older (if not the oldest) 10:00PM scripted show on ABC. The ratings for PP are stronger than most (if not all)of ABC’s 10;00 shows. Rhimes will surely point this out to ABC when discussing the future of Scandal.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @chrisss

    The point I’m concerned with is whether or not it’s in ABCs best interests to have CT reach syndication numbers… and it is hard to argue that it is not. But let’s go to the matter of Scrubs, which was put to bed two years ago.

    My point is that ABC didn’t get Scrubs into syndication; NBC did. It may be ABC’s gain, but it wasn’t ABC’s doing. And the reason why that is important is that 99.5% of all people will remember Scrubs’ success as NBC’s, true or not. My point, expanding on Julia’s, is that there have been, very recently, very few comedies associated in the minds of the viewers as ABC shows that have made it to syndication. And it would be a good thing for people to know that ABC can actually accomplish such a thing on their own, which is why I think they should keep it at ABC.

    I did try to learn who produced Scrubs before even mentioning it, but I wasn’t able to verify it. I checked three independent pages (the last being Wiki, which is usually spot-on when it comes to TV shows production and other teams) and no studio was listed; both airing networks were, though. Instead, individual producers were shown rather than Disney, ABC or any related company.

    I don’t think any of this matters, though. The only reason why I even mentioned Scrubs was because of its ties to CT. It was a side reference and a response to it rather than the thrust of my argument doesn’t do much for conversation.

    All of this aside, I’m glad to learn that ABC produced Scrubs, if that’s actually the case. Now, what do you think about whether or not ABC should make sure to get CT into syndication? And why? (And please don’t talk about the quality of the show, which is insignificant to the matter at hand; this is about profits – short or long term – and nothing else.)

  • Brad

    Can someone tell me why Happy Endings is a shoe in? I LOVE the show but it’s finale got lower ratings than any Cougar Episode has ever gotten.

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