ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • forg

    I was confident LMS will get a renewal until it started hitting series lows week after week, so it’s on the bubble for me. I really hope ABC will give it another shot or at least give it 13 eps in the fall. I think the show has the potential to grow and people could discover it during summer reruns which I suspected what happened to The Middle.

    Body of Proof has a small shot for renewal I think given the ratings they had for the last 2 episodes, maybe ABC wants to nurture another procedural ala Castle but Private Practice performed well on its timeslot and if they renew BOP, where will ABC place it? I don’t think they’ll shake up Fridays with scripted programming like what other people are thinking since they are already doing well with non-scripted programming led by Shark Tank.

    ABC should not change the Wednesday sched except the post-Modern Family slot. I like both HE and Apt 23 but they might find something stronger. I don’t know how they will schedule HE and Apt 23 if they renew both, which they can given the relative solid ratings.

    I think GCB is done. Scandal I’m 50-50 but I think it will get a 13 ep renewal in the same timeslot to see if it can grow with stronger ratings in the fall.

    Sundays should be interesting, will ABC launch two new dramas from 9-11pm? Will they move OUAT at 9pm and launch two new shows on the side? Or will they move a veteran on Sunday? Personally, I hope they stick with OUAT at 8pm, it’s perfect there and it will be hard to launch something new at 8 rather than 9 pm. Plus it could provide a good lead in for a new show at 9 pm. For 10 pm, I say move one of the veterans here, either Castle or Private Practice. I think they should just launch one drama on Sunday

  • rob60990

    “I LOVE the show but it’s finale got lower ratings than any Cougar Episode has ever gotten.”

    Um no. Cougar Town has gotten plenty of ratings below a 1.6. Also, no network bases a show’s renewal on 1 episode.

  • Jenny

    Yay for Private Practice!

  • Bunny

    I’m scared that any min now ABC will put out their press release for renewals and Happy Endings is not there..

  • @scl2

    Missing 0%
    The River 0%
    Body Of Proof 10%
    Cougar Town 45%
    GCB 49%
    Last Man Standing 60%
    Don’t Trust The B in Apt 23 65%
    Scandal 60%
    Private Practice 100%
    Castle 100%
    Revenge 100%
    Suburgatory 100%
    Happy Endings 90%
    The Middle 100%
    Once Upon A Time 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy 100%
    Modern Family 100%

  • Patrick G.

    Shame about “Cougar Town.” I’ve enjoyed it from Day 1, though the title should have been promptly changed before it got too late. “The Culdesac Crew” would have been more appropriate, since that’s what the show has really been about. But, with the show’s huge hiatus, by the time it finally came back, I almost didn’t care anymore.

    As for the rest of the ABC lineup, they should try the TGIF idea or put it to rest already. Where else they plan to put so many comedies is beyond me. They don’t work very well on Tuesdays! How about Thursday nights a-la NBC in its heydey and moe “Grey’s” to 10pm. THAT would make the most sense!

  • Patrick G.

    moe = move. I sure miss the edit feature.

    And to respond more to the CT debate, I agree with Julia and Terry Jackson’s point about getting the show to syndication. ABC’s current slate of hit comedies are mostly produced by other studios. “Happy Endings” isn’t far enough along yet. I would think they’d like ONE of their in-house comedies to reap syndication profits, so “Cougar Town” is likely to live on somewhere next season if ABC and their production arm have anything to say about it.

  • Doug

    @Terry: ABC Studios doesn’t care how Scrubs success will be remembered, only that their bank account got fatter as a result of its syndication. And Touchstone, which produced Scrubs, was fully Disney-owned and is now known as ABC Studios.

    It’s a ridiculous argument. You’d be surprised how many people have absolutely no idea what networks that most shows air on – the vast majority of people don’t follow and/or have an iota of interest in ratings or TV production, only that they know on what number of the dial and when their favorites air.

    As for CT, I agree that ABC Studios will want it to get to syndication because ABC have very little in the pipeline right now that is nearing that milestone. Their last syndicated sitcoms was indeed Scrubs. Even if TBS doesn’t pick up CT, ABC will for that reason. It may not get a fall slot, but pragmatically, ABC knows it will have room for it somewhere on the schedule at some point.

  • Doug

    Of interest, since 2000, here are the ABC Studios/Touchstone sitcoms that have made it past the 5-season mark:

    According to Jim, My Wife & Kids & Scrubs. Not a great record, for sure, and none were strong/long-lasting performers. I can see the impetus there to deliver CT past the 88 episode mark.

  • SJ

    @Fred

    “GCB is controversial and gets mixed reviews.”

    So does Don’t Trust the B in Apt. 23 and yet no one is predicting its cancellation. Since when do networks cancel shows based on so-called controversy (a few Christian groups yapping about how their sensibilites have been offended does not a controversy make, by the way)? And only NBC is known to cancel shows due to poor critical reception.

    Speaking of, Scandal is in the same boat critically as GCB. Both have been met with mixed reviews, the difference is, GCB’s pilot was mostly negatively reviewed, and that is usually the review that sticks with the show.

    Besides, a 1.9 (more precisely, 1.92) out of a 2.2 (the combined average for DH, OUAT Repeat and Titanic) is way better than a 2.0 (more precisely, 1.98) out of a 3.1 (Grey’s avg. for new episodes since Scandal premiered). ABC should either renew both or just GCB. Anything else would not be fair.

  • Riff Rafferty

    CASTLE – 100% – Their best scripted drama hit by a mile.
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 100% – Their worst scripted drama hit by a mile.
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 100% – Why not? Di$ney-ABC have always acted like the entire world is one giant fairy tale. Art mirroring life, baby.
    REVENGE – 100% – Who knew getting Revenge on ABC could be so much fun?? I sure didn’t! But now I get it! Every single day! Ho, do I ever!
    DANCING WITH THE STARS – 100% – Gee, who could have guessed teaching right-wing, conservative, older households about transgender things in an 8:00pm family show wouldn’t go over so hot.
    THE BACHELOR – 100% – 10 million lonely, cat-hoarding, needlepoint-loving spinsters served every year.
    AMERICA’S FUNNIEST HOME VIDEOS – 100% – America will never get enough of guys getting hit in the balls.
    WIPEOUT – 100% – Enough already with the Spring and the Winter and the Mid-Springter editions. Summer Wipeout. That’s IT.
    THE MIDDLE – 100% – I’m sure Renowned Industry Expert Bill Gorman still has it listed as a likely cancellation.
    SUBURGATORY – 100% – Not the best show in the world, to put it mildly, but better than the last thing ABC paired with “The Middle.” At least Warner Bros. spent actual money on this one.
    MODERN FAMILY – 100%
    BODY OF PROOF – 90% – If the affiliates want it on the air and it’s a monster international hit and it put the screws to CBS and it scored 10 million viewers in its last 3 broadcasts of the season and it gets a huge DVR boost and it is the best performer ABC has had out of “Dancing with the Stars” results show in 3 years (during which time they nearly tanked the time slot with the likes of “Eli Stone,” “Cupid 2.0″ “The Unusuals,” “V,” “Detroit 1-8-7″ and “The Forgotten”), remind me again what’s the problem here? I don’t possess the ability to think like an ABC executive because I’m not retarded, but… seriously, what’s the problem again? The proof? The proof is go look elsewhere for a body.
    SHARK TANK – 90% – Not that it will ever be on the fall schedule again. Jimmy Kimmel made sure of that.
    LAST MAN STANDING – 85% – Another hit series killed because ABC is too braindead and tone-deaf to even know who their audience is — or what’s appropriate to show in an 8:00pm family sitcom, for that matter. Maybe it will be a have better time of it when it’s on Friday paired with other similar multi-cams.
    DON’T TRUST THE B IN APT 23 – 80% – This was like “Happy Endings” last year. It could have gotten a 1 share and it would have been renewed. Thankfully, this show does not have all kinds of problems. Just one. The crappy title. Oh wait, two. The parents watchdog groups calling for its cancellation because of the crappy title.
    CELEBRITY WIFE SWAP – 75% – You keep trying over and over to launch a December bridge for “Dancing with the Stars.” Here it is, dummies. And thanks for the business.
    PRIVATE PRACTICE – 60% – I guess ABC “feels it is time.”
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 55% – Garbage now, wow.
    SCANDAL – 40% – Can someone please do “damage control” on this “sticky” crapfest — by sticking it to the bottom of the nearest dumpster and forgetting it ever existed? Or at least have the decency to take that unpleasant redhead character (the one who apparently cuts her own hair with a lawnmower) and push her in front of a train or something.
    WHAT WOULD YOU DO? – 20% – What would I do? I would get rid of this noxious propaganda, that’s what I’d do. And has anyone bothered to check the tubby Mexican’s papers? Is he even in the country legally?
    MISSING – 10% – Not even getting into the demo issue, not even getting into the plummeting ratings, not even getting into the fact that it’s crappy and inept a total rip-off of you-know-what, this is a movie masquerading as a TV show. And it doesn’t need a sequel. She finds her son… okay, and then what? Yeah, exactly.
    GCB – 5% – Because Annie Potts is a DLB. Dumb Liberal Bi+ch.
    PAN AM – 0% – What really killed this show was setting it at a defunct airline instead of one currently in operation. There went that in-flight screening campaign.
    THE RIVER – 0% – I understand now why this show is called The River. ‘Cuz that’s where it’s being sent up.
    YOU DESERVE IT – 0% – I don’t know what “we” did to deserve this but ABC, they sure deserved it.
    COUGAR TOWN – 0/0 – This is such a sad day for the makers of Botox. All that free publicity, gone forever.

  • SmG

    Busy Phillips Slams ABC’s Cougar Town Treatment

    Busy Philipps just put ABC, the potential former home of Cougar Town, on blast: “It has not been fun to feel like the ugly stepsister of the network,” she tells E!. “They moved us around, they took us off the air for months. … If TBS is willing to launch the show in a real great way and we would actually have like billboards and commercials, that would be really cool.” Your move, TBS and/or ABC.

    -Vulture

  • katelyn

    @ Riff Rafferty
    I agree with you on your predctions. Out of the three bubble shows Scandal and Body of Proof are most likely getting a renewl. GCB will probably be cancelled since ABC doesn’t want to deal with the controvorsal crap against it. GCB demos also get lower with every episode. Its eaiser to get rid of a show with so much back biting then taking the crap from it.

  • Fred

    @SJ,

    I agree with what you are stating. But networks don’t care about what is fair. Shondra Rhimes must have some influence at ABC. That may be the determining factor. Who knows what goes on behind closed doors.
    I really can’t wait for the announcements.

  • Tabitha

    Last Man Standing 30%
    GCB 65% (new time)
    Once Upon A Time 100%

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Doug

    I might be surprised by how many people don’t equate a show with a network, but you might be surprised by how many people do. There. We’re even on that one.

    It is not a ridiculous argument in the least for ABC to care about being recognized for its ability to produce sitcoms that make it to syndication. NBC was able to do it for years and this ability helped build interest in their sitcoms. Do you think, for instance, that Friends would have been the hit that it was had Seinfeld not made “must-see television” so important to so many people or, more radically, if it had aired on another network?

    Since Scrubs was a part of NBC’s Thursday line-up (for two years in various slots), it’s safe to say that people associate it with NBC. This is a result of more than 20 years of marketing that resulted in the dominance of a brand. And speaking of, with all of the talk of TGIF, do you really think that people don’t remember that shows in near-endless syndication like Full House and Family Matters were ABC shows? So, while ABC might have made the most money from Scrubs, it didn’t benefit “the brand,” which is most important when it comes to establishing new hits.

    If CT makes it into syndication, it will be the first time in too long of a time that ABC was able to accomplish such a feat. It will be important to them, especially if Modern Family gets there at the same time. Since The Middle and Happy Endings will likely follow, ABC will be on its way to reestablishing its brand of comedy, which is clearly important to them, since they added an additional hour this year.

    Whether or not you agree with any of this doesn’t really matter to me, but it isn’t “ridiculous.” And, again, I mentioned Scrubs solely as a sidebar, as noticeable by the fact that it was in parentheses, but whatever; my main point was to establish the fact that ABC execs practically NEED this to happen in order to gain dominance in at least one area, since CBS has procedurals, Fox has reality and NBC is barely holding on to comedies.

    Right now, ABC is in the middle of fixing the mistakes of the few years leading to this one, so it has lots of old hits and a few new ones but, for the most part, it doesn’t “own” any particular category or genre, which is a shame, even with its quality of programming. If it doesn’t attain such a hold, it won’t be too far from falling back into a virtual tie with NBC. And with Fox finally generating some non-animated hits, ABC needs every hit on the table if it is going to be seen as any kind of leader by, first, trade publications, which is important because they fuel the opinions of average people, whether they know it or not.

    This is just the way it works. And this is the way it has always worked. Individual hits are important, but they do not make for a strong network. Fox grew out of a few single hits here and there, but its recent dominance, in terms of its overall “success” is less attributable to, say, AI than it is to the fact that it has kept its schedule to (many, if you include daytime) fewer hours, which has allowed for easy management of what? Its brand.

  • Meliwa

    I think Scandal has done well enough to warrant a second season. As I recall the first season of Private Practice drew about the same ratings as Scandal, maybe even a little bit worse, and it’s still on the air likely to get renewed again several seasons later. Not to mention Scandal is coming out on DVD this summer and may draw potential new viewers to the second season.

  • Fennerbender

    Most of ABC’s moves look obvious, but Scandal & GCB. I think both will get limited pickups to see how the Fall treats them as Spring has been hard on all. I’m sure there will be one surprise pick-up that will have nothing to do with its ratings, but deals made.

  • Brian

    Don’t Trust Apt 23…100 percent-Probably took Cougar’s spot on ABC.
    Modern Family/Middle/Once Upon a Time/Revenge/Happy Endings…100 percent-Renew them already.
    Castle…95 percent-Better question is do they stay on Mondays?
    Gray’s Anatomy…90 percent-when does cast costs start to become prohibitive?
    Suburgatory…75 percent-I think this sitcom stays.
    Private Practice…70 percent-They’ll get 13 more to wrap it up.
    Scandal…65 percent-I think it lives on for another year.
    Last Man Standing…40 percent-I see them making this one of the final cuts, with fresh sitcom blood coming in.
    GCB…35 percent-Don’t think they get that miracle.
    Missing…15 percent-Might sneak through the radar, but ABC is not as desperate as NBC.
    Body of Proof…10 percent-Could do better elsewhere.
    River…0 percent-Drain it already.
    Cougar Town…0 percent-Wouldn’t be selling it to TBS if they wanted to keep it.

  • Rebecca

    @Nick
    YES, the Castle season finale was very good. Catch up! lol The recent zombie related episode was especially entertaining.

    CASTLE – 79 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 34 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 25 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 29 (-3) In tonight’s episode they go to Disneyland, can’t wait!

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