ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Brian Fleming

    Monday

    8pm-10pm DWTS / GLASS HOUSE: winter edition / The Bachelor / DWTS
    10pm DEVIOUS MAIDS/MISTRESSES ***16-17 episodes each, keep the hour all new and as fresh as possible

    Tuesday

    8pm THE MANZANIS ***good credentials, although little buzz, not sure why
    8:30pm THE SMART ONE ***ditto, but sounds fantastic
    9pm DWTS Results / Happy Endings + Apartment 23 (13 episodes each) / DWTS Results ***I like the idea of HE and APT 23, with MANDY MOORE comedy ready if one crashes and burns by itself
    10pm NASHVILLE/AMERICANNA ***about 16 episodes each, all new in the hour except for DEC. Keep things as fresh as possible

    Wednesday

    8pm The Middle
    8:30pm Suburgatory
    9pm Modern Family
    9:30pm HOW TO LIVE WITH YOUR PARENTS FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE
    10pm Revenge, divided into two “seasons” with something fresh in b/t

    Thursday

    8pm 666 PARK AVE ***no other drama, would appeal to men/women
    9pm Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm Scandal/Private Practice (13 episodes each); then ZERO HOUR

    Friday

    8pm MALIBU COUNTRY
    8:30pm Last Man Standing
    9pm Shark Tank/Body of Proof (winter 13 episodes)/Primetime: WWYD
    10pm 20/20

    Sunday

    7pm America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8pm Once Upon A Time
    9pm Castle
    10pm LAST RESORT ***only fear is it could be male-skewing and hurt by SNF, but if it gains traction in fall, would be primed for winter/spring

    MIDSEASON: AMERICAN JUDY, AWESOMETOWN, MANDY MOORE, WipeOut, ZERO HOUR

  • Babs

    Tried to get into Missing, River, just couldn’t.
    Suburgatory,Wipeout, & first 2 hours of Friday lineup, Really????
    Really liked Pan Am. Thought it was just gone until Fall. BOOO!
    Yeah, Revenge & Once Upon a Time!! Surprised I like “Once” but it’s actually entertaining (except the fairies last week were a bit much!!!)
    Still don’t get what people see in “Dancing”. It’s a show for old people with “has beens”. I’m old but have much better things to do with my time then that crap.

  • JohnnyRico

    Missing – 0%
    River – 0%
    Body of Proof – 0%
    GCB – 30%
    Cougartown -50%
    Scandal – 69%
    Last Man Standing – 50%
    Happy Endings – 85%
    Castle – 100%
    Private Practice – 100%
    Revenge – 100%
    Grey’s Anatomy – 100%
    Once Upon a Time – 100%
    The Middle – 100%
    Suburgatory – 100%
    Modern Family – 100%
    Don’t Trust the B – 85%

  • Jay

    I bet Body of Proof will be renewed, at least for a half season.

  • MGL

    Most give Missing 0% chance, but actually I thought it was good. I think it’s biggest problem was that it came on mid-season and against such phenominal entrenched shows as Idol and BBT. It really needed a later timeslot and against not as established shows.

  • b

    why bother wondering if modern family is renewed

  • David Howell

    Besides the obvious ones:

    Private Practice has “13 episode final season” written all over it for me. 95%.
    Scandal should be absolutely safe, but may be kept on the bench, perhaps taking PP’s slot midseason. 95% renewal, but only 70% of being on the fall schedule.
    Cougar Town won’t be back on ABC. The shortened season 3 was a de facto cancelation. 0%.
    Body of Proof has no chance. It’s been too low for too long. ABC’s news magazines are popular enough to be plugged in as spackle. 0%.
    Last Man Standing will be renewed if and only if ABC are happy with one of the new formats they could pair it with. Any such “man hour” would probably be Friday 8pm, a less disruptive place for a network to go “off-brand”. 70%.
    Happy Endings and Apartment 23 will be renewed, but won’t get the MF lead-in. They could share the Tuesday 9pm hour. 95% for both.
    GCB is a toss-up, I’m leaning renewal for some reason. Probably the fact it gets Scandal-like numbers with a slightly weaker lead-in. Again, may be on the bench as spackle, or as an instant replacement if Devious Maids flops. 55%.

  • Fred

    @David Howell,

    I enjoyed your take on this subject.

    LMS might work on Friday with another family sitcom. But ABC does fairly well with low cost shows like Shark Tank and Prime Time WWYD. Airing high cost scripted shows on Friday might be cost prohibitive. But if they experiment and it fails they can always bring back the profitable unscripted fare.

    True that GCB did have a weaker lead in than Scandal. However I’m not sure ABC cares about retention too much. Scandal has Shondra Rhimes on their side. ABC made big bucks on Grey;s and even PP over the years.

    Also I agree ABC should air a new sitcom after MF.
    HE and Apt 23 might work well together on another night. So would CT, but this prospect is increasingly less likely. So sad, because CT has been funnier than most anything on tv and I watch lots of comedy.

  • Greg

    CANCELED
    Body of Proof
    Cougar Town
    GCB
    Missing
    The River

    RENEWED
    Castle
    Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Happy Endings
    Last Man Standing
    The Middle
    Modern Family
    Once Upon a Time
    Private Practice
    Revenge
    Scandal
    Suburgatory

  • David Howell

    Fred: cheers!

    It’s ironic that the network probably most likely to consider TGIF are the ones who have least to gain from it. I think CBS would be smart to try TGIF, they can throw Undercover Boss in if needs be and they can’t do worse than AGM, plus it means they get to have their cake (more sitcom time) and eat it (retain the PoI/Mentalist block that is turning the former into the next big CBS syndication franchise).

  • Fred

    David Howell,

    Back in the 90’s CBS attempted to compete with ABC on Friday. I forgot what they called the lineup but it featured Family Matters (dumped by ABC). ABC destroyed CBS in the ratings at that time.
    I for one have fond memories of the various TGIF shows: Full House, Family Matters, Sabrina, Boy Meets World, Hangin With Mr Cooper, Step By Step etc…. Oh those were the days!!

  • Wilbur

    Body of Proof really needs another season or two. It’s well done, good story lines, (they’ve dropped the fluff with the ex-husband) and is a really decent show. Kind of like a cleaned up “Bones” with a little less gore.

    Numbers don’t lie, but I think your opinions tend to skew other peoples’ opinions. Just reporting the numbers and not bitching about what you like and don’t like may result in more accurate results.

  • Holly

    @Wilbur,

    I think you grossly overestimate the affect this website has on the ratings.

  • Avery

    @Fred
    It was called the “CBS Friday Night Block Party”.

  • Graysen

    Suburgatory will definitely be back! Chris Parnell was at my boyfriend’s school today and confirmed they wrapped up taping for season 2 (I assume the fall portion).

  • Avery

    @Fred
    History of the CBS Block Party, from wikipedia:
    CBS Block Party was a programming block that aired on the CBS television network during the 1997-1998 television season. The block was similar to, and was intended as direct competition to, ABC’s TGIF lineup and aired on Friday nights from 8pm-10pm ET. The block was a Cadmean victory in that although the block was canceled after one year, ABC releasing two shows caused what turned out to be irreparable harm to the previously dominant TGIF, eventually clearing the way for CBS to dominate the Friday night lineup beginning in the next decade.

    When ABC canceled the long-running shows Family Matters and Step by Step, CBS picked them up and made them the cornerstones of the new “Block Party.” Two new family comedies were added. The first was a new production from Miller-Boyett Productions (the production company behind Family Matters and Step By Step among other TGIF series), Meego. Meego, in addition to being produced by TGIF alumni, also starred a TGIF alumnus: Bronson Pinchot, who previously starred as Balki Bartokomous in Perfect Strangers (Pinchot even used a similar accent to the one he used for the Balki character); Meego also featured well-known contemporary child stars Michelle Trachtenberg and Jonathan Lipnicki. The second new series was The Gregory Hines Show, an eponymous sitcom featuring entertainer Gregory Hines.

    8:00 Family Matters
    8:30 Meego
    9:00 The Gregory Hines Show
    9:30 Step by Step
    (all times U.S. Eastern Time)
    None of the shows in the lineup lasted beyond that season. Meego lasted a mere six weeks, and The Gregory Hines Show was gone after fourteen. Though the two ABC series were picked up for full seasons, they suffered badly from the network jump, with both series hitting all-time lows in the Nielsen ratings. When the two series were canceled, neither was afforded a series finale. Thus, in terms of forming a permanent block of programming on Friday night, the block was a complete failure.

    The Block Party was CBS’s second (and last to date) attempt to compete with TGIF; in 1992, the network attempted a similar block, albeit targeting an older demographic than either TGIF or the Block Party, that featured The Golden Palace (the continuation of the long-running NBC sitcom The Golden Girls), Designing Women, Major Dad, and Bob. Like the Block Party, this block also failed after one season, and by the end of 1993, all four series had been canceled. However, the Block Party succeeded where the 1992 block had failed in that the Block Party, and the resulting audience fracture between it and TGIF that it caused, placed a severe dent in TGIF’s ratings. TGIF went off the air in 2000.

    Incidentally, these factors may at least partially explain why CBS has been less prone to the Friday night death slot phenomenon seen on other broadcast networks.

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 76 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 32 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 28 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 31 (+2)

    “It’s like trying to find Waldo in a sea of Waldos” (Pretty much sums up the episode :-D)
    -Rick Castle, Castle episode 4.19, “47 Seconds”
    ^In the middle of this episode, can’t wait to finish :-)

  • Chris

    The block that I remember fondly was with Family Matters, Boy Meets World, Step by Step, and Hangin With Mr. Cooper. Though I remember Baby Talk and Dinosaurs from when I was a baby. If they just renewed Hangin With Mr. Cooper and kept Family Matters and Step by Step the ratings would have been kept intact for a little while longer.I didn’t like those last three seasons of Boy Meets World and the thought that it was TGIF’s top show during those last three years showed that ABC made a bad move with the other three shows.

  • katelyn

    Just seeing last nights final ratings I wouldn’t be surprised if Private Practice was cancelled. Can you say ouch. This is a big boost for Body of Proof hopefully.

  • Nick

    ABC is the network with which TGIF would be best for 1 reason: 13 pilots!!
    Do some math:

    ABC has 2 HIT comedies: MF and The Middle. Plus they have syndication.
    1 Good Comedy: Suburgatory. It has proven it can survive without a Middle lead-in.
    3 Acceptable: Happy Endings, LMS, and Apt 23. I give LMS the edge because it’s a self-starter, and the others are OK behind MF. Anyway ABC will probably cancel at least 1 and renew at leat 1.
    1 OK: Cougar Town. enough said

    So, ABC is renewing between 4-5, even 6 if the TBS deal for Cougar Town doesn’t go through. They will also pick up a good amount of their pilots, which are OK this year. That would be about 5-7. The least # of slots they would need is 9. Since that’s odd, round it up to 10. There are SIX slots now. So, they would need 2 more expansions. Even if comedies are used at Tue @9 when DWTS is on break, that is only 2 slots. ABC will need at least 1 hour on Fridays.

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