ABC: Final Guesses For 'Body Of Proof,' 'Cougar Town,' 'GCB,' 'Scandal' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: Cougar Town was canceled by ABC and is moving to TBS.

5/10 Update (2): Once Upon A Time, The Middle, Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Suburgatory, Revenge & Castle have been renewed.

5/11 Update: Happy Endings has been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Scandal has been renewed.

5/11 Update (3): Private Practice, Body Of Proof, Last Man Standing, Scandal, Don't Trust The B---- have been renewed, GCB, Missing and The River have been canceled. Pan Am, which was defacto canceled long ago, has now been officially canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Missing 0% 0%
The River 0% 0%
Body Of Proof 10% 5%
Cougar Town 20% 30%
GCB 40% 25%
Last Man Standing 60% 70%
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 80% 85%
Scandal 80% 60%
Private Practice 90% 90%
Castle 100% 100%
Revenge 100% 100%
Suburgatory 100% 100%
Happy Endings 100% 100%
The Middle 100% 100%
Once Upon A Time 100% 100%
Grey's Anatomy 100% 100%
Modern Family 100% 100%

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No singnificant difference between Robert's and my predictions for the ABC shows. With the news that ABC Studios was talking to TBS about Cougar Town, I think it's now unlikely it returns to ABC. Our guesses above do not try and guess the likelihood that it will be picked up elsewhere.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Missing :oops: 0.63
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.02
Desperate Housewives final season 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 79 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 30 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 25 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 33 (+2)

    From Boy Meets World episode 1.15 “Model Family” –
    Topanga: [reading off Cory's paper] “My model wife won’t care how dirty my room gets. She’ll always let me win at video games. She’ll play street hockey any time of the day or night.” Why don’t you just marry Shawn?
    [Cory and Shawn look at each other]
    Cory: Because our kids would look like horses.

  • Doug

    @Nick: Your fuzzy math excludes the fact that ABC will likely hold at least 2 comedies for mid-season. I’ve also read that ABC is not happy with its comedy pilots, and LMS is nowhere near a lock for renewal. My guess is that Wednesdays remain the same, with a new comedy opening up at 9:30pm, DWTS Results goes to 8pm Tuesdays, HE and Apt 23 make a 9pm block (they are extremely compatible, unlike with MF). Another sitcom for Tuesday at 8:30pm, which would either be LMS or a new one (I’m guessing the Reba entry, which should generate buzz).

    That’s 2 new comedies for the fall, and two more for mid-season. LMS might get a short order for in-between seasons of DWTS. If ABC does pick up CT (and it likely will, if the TBS deal falls through), it’ll be burnt off Thursdays at 8pm or something similar.

    See, you don’t even need to open up Friday! Which ABC won’t, because it would be foolish.

  • rob60990

    “Just seeing last nights final ratings I wouldn’t be surprised if Private Practice was cancelled. Can you say ouch. This is a big boost for Body of Proof hopefully.”

    Did you forget Body of Proof fell as low as a 1.2 this season?

  • Avery

    DWTS Results moving to 10:00 on Tuesdays: 60-80%
    TGIF returning: 50/50
    Revenge moving to Sundays: 0%

  • katelyn

    @rob60990

    it fell for one episode but by the end it was finishing between 1.9-2.1 a lot better than private practice and GCB.

  • Kim

    People are forgetting and are wayyyyy tooo serious! Come on, it’s tv for crying out loud. GCB is a funny program that pokes fun at alot of things not just christianity. TV is a place to go to get away from the real world. Maybe it’s time to nix REALITY tv and go back to utilizing it for it’s true purpose!!!

  • marie

    I like the body of proof

  • robin3birds

    Glad that “Scandal” will be renewed…now I don’t have to go back to HBO!…

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 82 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 28 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 27 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 30 (-3)

    quote from CT [3.11]:
    Title Card: “I didn’t know it was back on either.” -Abed [big fan of CT, from Community]

  • Fred

    I am elated that TBS will be airing CT next season. I was really worried that this season would be the last. Nearly every ep this season has been hilarious. My first choice would have been an ABC renewal. Second choice is not too shabby at all.

    I believe that ABC will renew all of the remaining sitcoms. ABC should allow LMS to grow next season. It worked for the once very low rated The Middle.

  • Rebecca

    @Fred
    I think so too. I’ve noted the following pilots to watch on ABC if they get picked up, and two or three of them might be half hour comedies (not sure/can’t remember): American Judy, The Smart One, Family Trap, BATB, and Gotham. That’s it so far, for me. Plus new seasons of LMS, Middle, MF, HE, A23, AFV, and OUAT. If Downwardly Mobile finds a home on ABC (since it seems NBC isn’t taking it), I’ll watch that too (or wherever it winds up, if on network TV). I’ll have to watch CT online, on TBS’s site if it’s there in the fall/winter/spring.

  • bluejays

    Same comment as on CBS (dont worry wont post it on fox and NBC too). It would be good to see an end of season post with the shows overall standings for the whole season.

    Re renewals. Castle is a def and PP too I hope, Revenge will get renewed hopefully and OUAT for definite.

  • tvfreak

    Well, ABC finally made one renewal/cancellation move. If only the fates of the rest of the shows could follow!

    CASTLE – 85 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 30 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 24 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 28 (-2)

    “I trust you. But not Darren, he’s dumb. Eleven it is.”
    -Frankie Heck, from The Middle episode 3.22 “The Clover”

  • katelyn

    Its looking like Body of Proof and Scandal are going to be back.

  • Bookworm

    @Katelyn

    Are you an insider? I’m serious, not in a mocking way or anything because you seem pretty confident about your picks. I don’t disagree with Scandal because I do LOVE the show, so I’m hyped to hear people see it as a good candidate for renewal and Rob-Bill giving it a higher percentage of coming back makes me feel even better but Body of Proof is really an odd choice, yet you seem so sure about it.

    If you are, I doubt you can say but I’m really curious to see what happens with BOP. If it does come back, I think we got our confirmation :)

  • Hattie

    I hope CT gets renewed. Honestly, I don’t care what network it’s on, I just care that it’s on. It’s great, smart comedy for an adult audience and I just haven’t seen that in so long. I know the ratings aren’t great, but the fans are loyal and it’s so great that I just can’t imagine a world where that audience doesn’t grow.

    I see PP getting renewed for a 15-ep final season. I don’t think they can really do much more with that show — it just seems like it’s run its course.

    Surprised to see Scandal so high up on the list though. For whatever reason I felt like that one crashed and burned…

  • ryaneco

    I really hope that Last Man Standing gets a renewal it has a great old school sitcom feel that isn’t about much these days – its wholesome – I think it could anchor a TGIF quite nicely.

  • Greg

    Body of Proof is coming back as I mentioned awhile back, when I was mocked by others on this board. There are far more insiders mocking you guys on this board than you know.

  • Ginger

    Sunday
    8:00 Once Upon a Time
    9:00 666 Park Avenue (NEW)
    10:00 GCB
    Try a new fantasy series after Once. Despearte Housewives star Vanessa Williams is n this one, so it may bring some of that audience back. GCB did better than PanAm, but it way steady okay ratings. Let’s get it see if it can improve within 13 episodes. If not, we’ll replace it.

    Monday
    8:00 DTWS / Bachelor
    10:00 Castle
    Keep it the same.

    Tuesday
    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu County (NEW)
    9:00 DTWS Results Show / Apartment 23 (new time)
    9:30 DTWS Results Show / Happy Endings (new time)
    10:00 Nashville (new)
    Reba is a force and a great companion to Tim Allen’s show. Apt 23 and Happy Endings can run repeat free in between DWTS seasons and Nashville seems like it’d appeal to the DWTS crowd.

    Wednesday
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Suburgatory
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 Family Trap (new)
    10:00 Revenge (22 episodes) / Americana (13 episodes)
    Drop in the new Mandy Moore family show into the mix, let Revenge run repeat free, and have another soap fill the rest of the season.

    Thursday
    8:00 Devious Maids (NEW)
    9:00 Grey’s
    10:00 Scandal
    It’s a tough time slot, but Devious Maids might appeal to the old Ugly Betty audience and Marc Cherry (Desperate Housewives) could have another breakout hit. Keep Scandal after Grey’s.

    Friday
    8:00 Shark Tank / Secret Millionaire
    9:00 Private Practice (13 episodes) / Body of Proof (13 episodes)
    10:00 20/20
    Reality can take the first hour. Final season of Private Practice and then we’ll see if ABC produced procedural Body of Proof does well.

    Midseason
    Mistrisses (new drama)
    How to Live With Your Parents (new comedy)
    Winter Wipeout (returning reality)

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 88 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 28 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 26 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 25 (-3)

    quote from MF [3.22]:
    (about going to Disneyland)
    Manny: Can you and Mom go without me?
    Jay: You’re the kid. I think we need you to get in.

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