CBS: Final Guesses For 'CSI:NY,' 'CSI:Miami,' 'Rules Of Engagement' & More
Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/10 Update: A Gifted Man has been canceled.
|A Gifted Man||0%||0%|
|Rules of Engagement||65%||60%|
|Two And A Half Men||95%||99%|
No real differences between Robert’s and my final predictions for CBS shows. I’ll admit that while I am certain at least one of the CSI offspring will be canceled, the choice of CSI:NY was just a bit above a stab in the dark since it’s likely driven by syndication economics that are substantially hidden from us.
To address the picky commenters out there who’ll otherwise whine “You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!”, please take all of my guesses above 50% as “will be renewed” and those below 50% as “will be canceled” and you may interpret the “distance” from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
For those who’d like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I’ll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A Gifted Man (F)*||:oops:||0.45|
|CSI:NY (F)||:| :| :|||0.56|
|Blue Bloods (F)||renewed||0.57|
|The Good Wife*||renewed||0.68|
|CSI: Miami*||:| :| :|||0.72|
|How To Be A Gentleman *||canceled||0.74|
|Rules of Engagement||:| :| :|||1.02|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||renewed||1.04|
|Person Of Interest||renewed||1.05|
|Rob*||:| :| :|||1.07|
|Mike & Molly||renewed||1.15|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.26|
|2 Broke Girls||renewed||1.34|
|Two And A Half Men||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.39|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.75|
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did CBS’ shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.