CBS: Final Guesses For 'CSI:NY,' 'CSI:Miami,' 'Rules Of Engagement' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: A Gifted Man has been canceled.

5/13 Update: Unforgettable, NYC 22, Rob and CSI:Miami have been canceled, CSI:NY has been renewed. Two and a Half Men has been renewed.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
A Gifted Man 0% 0%
NYC 22 0% 0%
Unforgettable 0% 0%
Rob 25% 30%
CSI:NY 35% 45%
CSI: Miami 65% 55%
Rules of Engagement 65% 60%
Two and a Half Men 95% 99%

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No real differences between Robert's and my final predictions for CBS shows. I'll admit that while I am certain at least one of the CSI offspring will be canceled, The Choice of CSI:NY was just a bit above a stab in the dark since it's likely driven by syndication economics that are substantially hidden from us.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
A Gifted Man (F)* :oops: 0.45
NYC 22 :oops: 0.46
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.56
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.57
The Good Wife* renewed 0.68
CSI: Miami* :| :| :| 0.72
Unforgettable :oops: 0.72
How To Be A Gentleman * canceled 0.74
The Mentalist renewed 0.90
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.93
CSI renewed 0.94
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.02
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.04
Person Of Interest renewed 1.05
Rob* :| :| :| 1.07
Criminal Minds renewed 1.08
Mike & Molly renewed 1.15
NCIS renewed 1.24
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.26
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.34
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Big Bang Theory renewed 1.75

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did CBS' shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • W

    I do not expect NYC 22, A Gifted Man, CSI: NY, Rob, Rules of Engagement and Unforgettable to be renewed for the 2012-2013 season.

  • Sid

    A Gifted Man- 0%
    NYC 22- 0%
    Unforgettable- 0%
    Rob- 0%
    CSI:NY- 30%
    CSI: Miami- 50%
    Rules of Engagement- 60%
    Two and a Half Men- 100%

  • Bee

    i don’t follow rules of engagement, but from what i’ve seen, the show gets treated like complete and total garbage by CBS and still pulls in good to decent numbers. i’d be pissed if i worked on that show, got that kind of scheduling mess, still put up decent ratings, and ended up getting cancelled anyway.

  • Avery

    2012-13 Schedule
    Sunday
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – The Good Wife
    10:00 – The Mentalist

    Monday
    8:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    8:30 – Partners
    9:00 – Two and a Half Men
    9:30 – Mike & Molly
    10:00 – Elementary

    Tuesday
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS:LA
    10:00– Hawaii 5-0

    Wednesday
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    Thursday
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Louis C.K./Spike Feresten Project
    9:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    9:30 – Super Fun Night
    10:00 – Person of Interest

    Friday
    8:00 – Martin Lawrence Project
    8:30 – Ben Falcone/Larry Dorf Project
    9:00 – Widow Detective
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

  • Ultima

    A Gifted Man – 0%
    NYC 22 – 0%
    Unforgettable – 0%
    Rob – 0%
    CSI NY – 10%
    CSI Miami – 40%
    Rules – 50%
    Two and a Half Men – 100%

  • Tom

    AGM 0%
    NYC 22 0%
    Unf 10% (Total Pilot Failure.)
    Rob 20% (Total Pilot Failure + 4 comedy hours.)
    NY 50%
    Miami 45%
    RoE 85% (100 episode for syndication!)
    2.5 Men 100%

  • One

    They’re dead. They’re all dead.

    AGM – 0
    NYC22 – 0
    Unforgettable – 0
    Rob – 5
    CSINY – 5
    CSIMiami – 7
    Rules – 50
    2.5 Men – 100

  • Scott M

    Gifted Man, NYC 22, Unforgettable – 0%
    CSI : NY – 10%
    Rob – 40%
    CSI Miami – 40%
    Rules – 60%
    2.5 Men – 100%

    I think everybody is downgrading Rob just a bit too much. It’s not a foregone conclusion Rules gets renewed over it and definite possibility both come back with the expansion of comedy CBS is thinking of. With the same expansion I think they cut all the remaining dramas to make room.

  • Sports Preemption

    I agree with Rules over Rob, but I won’t even make a pick in the whole CSI thing. I think Miami probably has a leg up on that, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of them go, so I’d do 45% for Miami and 30% for NY.

  • Carmen

    @ Bee
    “i don’t follow rules of engagement, but from what i’ve seen, the show gets treated like complete and total garbage by CBS and still pulls in good to decent numbers”

    Well, it pulls in good numbers by other network standards, but has survived mostly as schedule spackle for CBS.
    It has had a charmed life being one step ahead of the (cancellation) sheriff for its full run.

    3 years ago, it was the narrow winner in a 3 way battle with Gary Unmarried and Accidentally on Purpose for the remaining CBS 1/2 hour comedy slot.

    2 Years ago, it survived because CBS went to an expanded number of comedy hours and once again, Rules got the last spot.

    At the start of this season, they renewed it once again as spackle and scheduled it for Saturday. Then when (the predictable) failure of How to Become Gentleman occured it was again pressed onto the schedule.

    And finally, this coming year, it may get another spackle renewal for next year.

    Rule has always found itself in just the right circumstances in each of the past 3-4 years.

  • Mike

    Please cancel Rob!!

  • rob60990

    A Gifted Man – 0%
    NYC 22 – 0%
    Unforgettable – 0%
    Rob – 15%
    CSI NY – 20%
    CSI Miami – 40%
    Rules – 60%
    Two and a Half Men – 100%

  • Concerned Citizen

    Renewed: Two and a Half Men, Rules of Engagement, CSI Miami

    Cancelled: A Gifted Man, NYC 22, Unforgettable, Rob, CSI NY

    New shows: Ralph Lamb, Elementary, Trooper, Partners, Nick Stoller sitcom, Super Fun Night, Martin Lawrence sitcom

  • zerg

    A Gifted Man – 0%
    NYC 22 – 0%
    Unforgettable – 0%
    Rob – 5%
    CSI NY – 10%
    CSI Miami – 30%
    Rules – 50%
    Two and a Half Men – 99.9%

  • Bunny

    Rules of Engagement is owned by Sony and they’re relentless in bringing their show back..

  • Tony ^_^

    A Gifted Man: Cancelled.
    NYC 22: Cancelled.
    Unforgettable: As much as I enjoy watching it, Cancelled.
    Rob: Cancelled.
    CSI:NY: Cancelled.
    CSI: Miami: Could go both ways. Will stay at Sunday if CBS doesn’t want to try something new.
    Rules of Engagement: Hmm… Could go both ways…
    Two and a Half Men: Renewed.

  • Max

    May 16, 2012 is the CBS upfronts, I know what CBS shows will come back or won’t come back next season:

    Coming back: 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-O, How I Met Your Mother, The Mentalist, Mike & Molly, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, & Two and a Half Men
    On the bubble: CSI: Miami, CSI: NY, Rob, & Rules of Engagement
    Won’t come back: A Gifted Man, NYC 22, & Unforgettable

  • WB Frog

    Wish Unforgettable would be renewed and put on Fridays at 9, but I know I’m dreaming. Also wish Rules of Engagement would find a permanent home Thursdays at 8:30, but again I’m dreaming.

  • TVDude

    I have to agree with the predictions here. I doubt RoE will be back with a full season, but a final 13 episode order is believable and will have it end at a rather nice number of 100 episodes. CSI: Miami also looks to see another season, although I’m not as confident in that one as I am in Rules (and the obvious renewal of TAAHM).

  • Gary A

    @ Bill,

    Like the ABC thread, I see CBS only having at most 3 and 1/2 hours open this fall. ( Tues @ 10, Thurs @ 8:30 , Fri @ 9 & Sun @ 10 ) and thats based on the early renewals.

    But I think CBS may surprise us all with some back up renewals on a couple of the bubble shows ( RoE or CSI:M most likely ). & don’t rule out CBS actually adding some 1st run to Saturday on series like CSI:NY just to build up syndication revenue. Not likely, but wouldn’t be shocked.

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