CBS: Final Guesses For 'CSI:NY,' 'CSI:Miami,' 'Rules Of Engagement' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/10 Update: A Gifted Man has been canceled.

5/13 Update: Unforgettable, NYC 22, Rob and CSI:Miami have been canceled, CSI:NY has been renewed. Two and a Half Men has been renewed.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
A Gifted Man 0% 0%
NYC 22 0% 0%
Unforgettable 0% 0%
Rob 25% 30%
CSI:NY 35% 45%
CSI: Miami 65% 55%
Rules of Engagement 65% 60%
Two and a Half Men 95% 99%

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No real differences between Robert's and my final predictions for CBS shows. I'll admit that while I am certain at least one of the CSI offspring will be canceled, The Choice of CSI:NY was just a bit above a stab in the dark since it's likely driven by syndication economics that are substantially hidden from us.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
A Gifted Man (F)* :oops: 0.45
NYC 22 :oops: 0.46
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.56
Blue Bloods (F) renewed 0.57
The Good Wife* renewed 0.68
CSI: Miami* :| :| :| 0.72
Unforgettable :oops: 0.72
How To Be A Gentleman * canceled 0.74
The Mentalist renewed 0.90
Hawaii Five-0 renewed 0.93
CSI renewed 0.94
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.02
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed 1.04
Person Of Interest renewed 1.05
Rob* :| :| :| 1.07
Criminal Minds renewed 1.08
Mike & Molly renewed 1.15
NCIS renewed 1.24
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.26
2 Broke Girls renewed 1.34
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Big Bang Theory renewed 1.75

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did CBS' shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Like the ABC thread, I see CBS only having at most 3 and 1/2 hours open this fall. ( Tues @ 10, Thurs @ 8:30 , Fri @ 9 & Sun @ 10 ) and thats based on the early renewals.”

    I think you’re right on that, but the expectation is that will be 1.5 hours of comedies and 2 hours of new dramas.

    But both CSI offspring going down would not shock me.

  • Dennis

    A Gifted Man- 0%
    NYC 22- 0%
    Unforgettable- 20%
    Rob- 0%
    CSI:NY- 50%
    CSI: Miami- 100%
    Rules of Engagement- 50%
    Two and a Half Men- 75%

  • hardline_pro

    My guesses:

    A Gifted Man – 0%
    NYC 22 – 0%
    Unforgettable – 0%
    Rob – 0%
    CSI: NY – 50%
    CSI: Miami – 99%
    Rules of Engagement – 60%
    Two and a Half Men – 99%

  • Ryne

    A Gifted Man- 0
    22- 0
    Unforgettable- 5% (Poppie Montgomery’s hottness is worth a very slim chance)
    Rob- 25%
    CSI: NY 50%
    CSI: Miami 65%
    Rules- 75%
    Two And A Half Men- 100%

  • tvfreak

    Once again, I just have to say I am sad to be one of the very few with any faith in Unforgettable’s chances of returning. :(

    Oh well. Game time!

    PERSON OF INTEREST – 9
    THE BIG BANG THEORY – 11

  • Tommy Mickens

    Here’s my predictions, Bill Gorman!

    Unforgettable – 0%
    NYC 22 – 0%
    A Gifted Man – 0%
    CSI: NY – 20%
    Rules of Engagement – 45%
    CSI: Miami – 51%
    Rob – 55%
    Two and a Half Men – 100%

  • Pinkle

    @Bill Gorman and Robert Seidman

    Just a question for you two: What is your reasoning behind not being 100% sure that Two and a Half Men is coming back? The cast signed one-year deals recently, and I thought that was the only thing holding the renewal up.

  • Sheri

    I really hope that they give Unforgettable a chance. CSI Miami has got to go. They ran out of decent story lines several years ago and created Super Horatio and Horatio Jr. They’ve had it out to pasture in the Sunday-moves-around-based-on-sports slot for two years. Please put it out of our misery now.

    I like CSI: NY, but would rather see them give Unforgettable a chance over it. It’s got fresh new ideas, and the CSIs are losing steam. It would be a chance for the network to give a new show the benefit of the doubt since historically so many shows have faltered in their first season, rather than giving either CSI show that is slipping, and not nearly as good as it used to be, another year to drop further in the ratings.

    I think it’s time for Rules of Egagement to go. And I don’t believe Rob will get renewed. I’m up in the air on Two and a Half men. They look like they’re leaving it in a good place to end from what I briefly saw Monday. I’m guessing the decision will be based on contract renewal with Ashton Kutcher, and I don’t think you can view that in percentages like you do with whether the NETWORK will renew. Do I think the network would renew it with him? In a heartbeat. Do I think he’s going to want to renew? I don’t think it’s a great vehicle for his career and I’m guessing he’s looking elsewhere and will bail if he gets half a decent chance. So if you have to put it as a percentage, I’d give it no more than 50%.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Just a question for you two: What is your reasoning behind not being 100% sure that Two and a Half Men is coming back? The cast signed one-year deals recently, and I thought that was the only thing holding the renewal up.”

    Can’t speak for Robert, but mostly just to put a little variety into the prediction numbers, plus there might be a 5% chance that Ashton Kutcher and his management team are all 100% crazy!

  • s0303

    i think csi miami’s chances have improved since nyc 22 totally bombed in that time slot…i give it 55%

    cbs seems to treat rules as an ugly stepchild for some reason…i give it 25%

    all others except 2 1/2 men will be cancelled…

  • GDfriends

    A Gifted Man – 0%
    NYC 22 – 0%
    Unforgettable – 0%
    Rob – 0%
    CSI NY – 25%
    Rules – 50%
    CSI Miami – 75%
    Two and a Half Men – 100%%

  • Ultima

    @Sheri
    I really hope that they give Unforgettable a chance.

    THEY ALREADY DID!

    CBS gave Unforgettable a chance this season and it just didn’t cut it.

    Most scripts aren’t ordered to pilot. Most pilots aren’t picked up to series. Most shows that air don’t get a second season.

    Imagine if every show was given a minimum “chance” of two full seasons. We’d be getting less than ten new shows a year total on broadcast. Think of all the shows that come out that you aren’t interested in and how long you would have to wait for something that you’re actually interested in.

  • Ultima

    @Bill Gorman
    plus there might be a 5% chance that Ashton Kutcher and his management team are all 100% crazy!

    Kutcher has already signed with Warner Bros. for next season. All that’s left is the negotiations between WB and CBS, which are certain to result in a renewal.

  • Fake Me Out

    Since I like long shots, I’ll take a flutter on Unforgettable coming back after being reworked and tweaked a little. Since everyone is giving it 0% my little $2 down will pay off [Sagan on] billions and billions [Sagan off] and allow me to buy that tropical island I’ve always wanted to buy … you know, Hawaii.

    YMMV

  • SJ

    Looks like my post got caught in the spam folder. Let’s try again:

    A Gifted Man – 0%
    Unforgettable – 0%
    NYC 22 – 0%

    CSI: NY – 25%
    CSI: Miami – 55%

    Rob – 49%
    Rules – 75%

    Two and a Half Men – 100%

  • me

    I really liked A Gifted Man, NYC 22 and Unforgettable. it’s too bad that they probably will all get cancelled. I also am enjoying the new Two and a Half Men with Ashton Kutcher. I am glad to hear that one will probably get renewed.

  • angie

    I dont really understand why unforgettable will be cancelled, the reatings were pretty good all along the season so why woul dit be cancelled? can someone explain? thank you

  • RG-X

    My take:

    A Gifted Man 15% on renewal
    NYC 22 – 0%
    Unforgettable – 0%
    Rob – 10%
    CSI:NY -55% of a 13-18 final season renewal
    CSI: Miami- 60% of a final season renewal
    Rules of Engagement 45% (hoping it’s cancelled)
    Two and a Half Men – sadly a 95% of renewal

  • RG-X

    In tv world – nothing is guarenteed. So no -one gets a 100%

  • JJ

    Upset special: Unforgettable gets renewed.

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