Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/10 Update: A Gifted Man has been canceled.
5/13 Update: Unforgettable, NYC 22, Rob and CSI:Miami have been canceled, CSI:NY has been renewed. Two and a Half Men has been renewed.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| A Gifted Man | 0% | 0% |
| NYC 22 | 0% | 0% |
| Unforgettable | 0% | 0% |
| Rob | 25% | 30% |
| CSI:NY | 35% | 45% |
| CSI: Miami | 65% | 55% |
| Rules of Engagement | 65% | 60% |
| Two and a Half Men | 95% | 99% |
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No real differences between Robert's and my final predictions for CBS shows. I'll admit that while I am certain at least one of the CSI offspring will be canceled, The Choice of CSI:NY was just a bit above a stab in the dark since it's likely driven by syndication economics that are substantially hidden from us.
To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| A Gifted Man (F)* |  |
0.45 |
| NYC 22 | |
0.46 |
| CSI:NY (F) |  |
0.56 |
| Blue Bloods (F) | renewed | 0.57 |
| The Good Wife* | renewed | 0.68 |
| CSI: Miami* | |
0.72 |
| Unforgettable | |
0.72 |
| How To Be A Gentleman * | canceled | 0.74 |
| The Mentalist | renewed | 0.90 |
| Hawaii Five-0 | renewed | 0.93 |
| CSI | renewed | 0.94 |
| Rules of Engagement | |
1.02 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | renewed | 1.04 |
| Person Of Interest | renewed | 1.05 |
| Rob* | |
1.07 |
| Criminal Minds | renewed | 1.08 |
| Mike & Molly | renewed | 1.15 |
| NCIS | renewed | 1.24 |
| How I Met Your Mother | renewed | 1.26 |
| 2 Broke Girls | renewed | 1.34 |
| Two and a Half Men |  |
1.39 |
| Big Bang Theory | renewed | 1.75 |
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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did CBS' shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
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- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
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- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012 - - certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
Final Predictions for CBS
Cancelled
A Gifted Man: Even the cast isn’t pretending like this show is still under consideration. It’s done.
NYC 22: It’s about time that CBS stopped trying to launch dramas in April. It never works, and they’re doing well enough that they don’t need to.
Unforgettable: I’ve heard some speculation that CBS could try to move it to Friday as part of a female-skewing block with Jerry Bruckheimer’s pilot Trooper. I don’t buy it. Most networks would love to have a show that pulls the numbers Unforgettable gets, but CBS can afford to be choosy, and they should.
Rob: Some have speculated that CBS could renew this show because it adds diversity to their line-up. However, I think that Rules of Engagement’s better syndication prospects will outweigh any concerns that argument may have. Frankly, the cause of diversity on TV deserves a better champion than Rob.
CSI: NY: I’m not at all confident about this, since the buzz recently has actually been in favor of NY over Miami (it’s younger, it’s cheaper, it already airs on Friday, where Miami would probably have to move if renewed). However, I’ll go out on a limb and say that Miami’s stronger international prospects and new syndication deal with AMC win out.
Renewed:
CSI: Miami: See CSI: NY. Whichever show does earn a renewal, I don’t think there’s any doubt that next season will be the last. The only question is whether CBS will announce it as such.
Rules of Engagement: Renewed for 13 episodes. If CBS expands its comedy hours, it airs in the fall and gives way to a new comedy in the spring. If CBS doesn’t expand, it becomes spackle/insurance for a potential comedy failure. There’s a good chance that if Rules is renewed, this season is announced as the last, even if it does well.
Two and a Half Men: Was all but officially renewed once Ashton Kutcher put pen to paper on his new contract. If CBS is going to 4 hours of comedy per week, it needs this show to anchor an hour for at least two more years.
I really hope Unforgetable doesn’t get canceled, but knowing how things run with the t.v. industry it will most likely go by the way-side.
@angie
I dont really understand why unforgettable will be cancelled, the reatings were pretty good all along the season so why woul dit be cancelled? can someone explain? thank you
The ratings haven’t been pretty good. The show’s been consistently getting a low-2, high-1 rating for most of the season now. That’s too low for CBS to consider keeping.
Only CBC would cancel a show that would be one of the top shows on the CW or NBC by far, i.e. Unforgettable.
“plus there might be a 5% chance that Ashton Kutcher and his management team are all 100% crazy!
Kutcher has already signed with Warner Bros. for next season. All that’s left is the negotiations between WB and CBS, which are certain to result in a renewal.”
I need to fact check my jokes better.
Thank you Liz,
NYC 22 – 0%
A Gifted Man – 10%
Unforgettable – 30%
Rules of Engagement – 40%
Rob – 40%
CSI: NY – 50%
CSI: Miami – 60%
Two and a Half Men – 100%
@John Fischer
Only CBC would cancel a show that would be one of the top shows on the CW or NBC by far, i.e. Unforgettable.
FOX canceled Terra Nova, which had better ratings than Unforgettable.
Fall schedule: (comedies only)
MONDAY:
8pm – How I Met Your Mother
8:30pm – Mike and Molly
9pm – Two and A Half Men
9:30pm – Partners
THURSDAY:
8pm – 2 Broke Girls
8:30pm – Super Fun Night
9pm – The Big Bang Theory
9:30pm – Untitled Nick Stoller
MIDSEASON:
Untitled Martin Lawrence
Rules of Engagement
A Gifted Man- 0%
Unforgettable- 0%
CSI: NY- 15%
Rob- 55%
CSI: Miami- 75%
ROE: 80%
2.5 Men: 100%
For anyone voting in the elimination game, we’re down to the Winners Circle now so the votes are just +1 and -1 (must do both). TBBT against PoI.
In my heart as a TV viewer, I’d like for both CSIs to go away. Based only on the numbers, I think they’ll keep one of the CSIs, probably the criminally inane Miami, perhaps for a short “final season.” I’d guess no on RoE and Rob, and I’d say 2.5 Men is certain to return.
Funny, when I first signed on to TVBN a few years ago, CBS was a target of almost universal scorn as an old-folks network. What goes up must come down, but for the moment CBS is up, and I guess the old folks are, too.
Predictions:
A Gifted Man-0%
NYC 22-0%
Unforgettable-0%
Rob-50%
CSI: NY-40%
CSI: Miami-65%
Rules of Engagement-50%
Two and a Half Men-100%
Unforgettable should return on a different night. CBS loves Poppy Montgomery.
I love how CBS advertises Unforgettable as its hit drama, yet it has no chance of renewal. Bummer because it is a good show.
CSI: Miami: Renewed 80%
CSI: NY: Cancelled 90%
Rob: Renewed 70%
Rules of Engagement: Renewed 85%
Miami keeps Sunday @ 10. Rob and Rules will help the extra hour of comedy — be it on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday ‘spackle’
A Gifted Man 0%
NYC 22 0%
Unforgettable 0%
Rob 20%
CSI:NY 38%
CSI: Miami 44%
Rules of Engagement 88%
Two and a Half Men 100%
PERSON OF INTEREST – 10 (+1)
THE BIG BANG THEORY – 10 (-1)
From NUMB3RS episode 2.21 “Rampage” -
David Sinclair: What’s the first thing a New Yorker notices about L.A.?
Megan Reeves: No good pizza.
David Sinclair: Okay, what’s the second thing?
Rob is 25% and a toss up above. ¿Qué?
I am seemingly in the minority, but I am very confident that ROE and Miami will be renewed and that NY will be canceled. I am very slightly leaning renewal on Rob.