Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/10 Update: A Gifted Man has been canceled.
5/13 Update: Unforgettable, NYC 22, Rob and CSI:Miami have been canceled, CSI:NY has been renewed. Two and a Half Men has been renewed.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| A Gifted Man | 0% | 0% |
| NYC 22 | 0% | 0% |
| Unforgettable | 0% | 0% |
| Rob | 25% | 30% |
| CSI:NY | 35% | 45% |
| CSI: Miami | 65% | 55% |
| Rules of Engagement | 65% | 60% |
| Two and a Half Men | 95% | 99% |
-
No real differences between Robert's and my final predictions for CBS shows. I'll admit that while I am certain at least one of the CSI offspring will be canceled, The Choice of CSI:NY was just a bit above a stab in the dark since it's likely driven by syndication economics that are substantially hidden from us.
To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
-
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| A Gifted Man (F)* |  |
0.45 |
| NYC 22 | |
0.46 |
| CSI:NY (F) |  |
0.56 |
| Blue Bloods (F) | renewed | 0.57 |
| The Good Wife* | renewed | 0.68 |
| CSI: Miami* | |
0.72 |
| Unforgettable | |
0.72 |
| How To Be A Gentleman * | canceled | 0.74 |
| The Mentalist | renewed | 0.90 |
| Hawaii Five-0 | renewed | 0.93 |
| CSI | renewed | 0.94 |
| Rules of Engagement | |
1.02 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | renewed | 1.04 |
| Person Of Interest | renewed | 1.05 |
| Rob* | |
1.07 |
| Criminal Minds | renewed | 1.08 |
| Mike & Molly | renewed | 1.15 |
| NCIS | renewed | 1.24 |
| How I Met Your Mother | renewed | 1.26 |
| 2 Broke Girls | renewed | 1.34 |
| Two and a Half Men |  |
1.39 |
| Big Bang Theory | renewed | 1.75 |
-
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did CBS' shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
-
- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
-
- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012 - - certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
This is SO HARD!!!
PERSON OF INTEREST – 11 (+1)
THE BIG BANG THEORY – 9 (-1)
My bet – Two and A Half Men 100% renewal for another two years, Rose has Ashton’s bedroom…Ashton goes to Bora Bora, and never comes back! Ratings go back to 28 million viewers – like the 1st ep of this season when the entire world of television wanted to know, what the show was like without Charlie Sheen…and by the way, Chuck Lorre saved Sheen’s life by getting rid of him…
I am still holding out hope for unforgettable. Keep it and move it to friday.
Keep CSI Miami!!!!
CBS has had some real trouble with Sunday night.
Here’s what I think they should do:
Sunday
7:00 60 Minutes
8:00 The Amazing Race
9:00 Survivor
10:00
Monday
8:00 How I Met Your Mother
8:30
9:00 Two and a Half Men
9:30 Mike & Molly
10:00 Hawaii Five-O
Tuesday
8:00
9:00
Hit my send button before I finished
Here’s what I think they should do – thinking out of the box for Sunday
Sunday
7:00 60 Minutes
8:00 The Amazing Race
9:00 Survivor
10:00
Monday
8:00 How I Met Your Mother
8:30 Partners
9:00 Two and a Half Men
9:30 Mike & Molly
10:00 Hawaii Five-O
Tuesday
8:00 NCIS
9:00 The Mentalist
10:00 NCIS: LA
Wednesday
8:00 Widow Detective
9:00 Criminal Minds
10:00 CSI
Thursday
8:00 Big Bang Theory
8:30 2 Broke Girls
9:00 Person Of Interest
10:00 Elementary
Friday
8:00 Undercover Boss
9:00 Blue Bloods
10:00 The Good Wife
Sunday at 10:00 would be CSI: NY
Gifted Man 0%
NYC 22 -1%
Unforgettable 1%
Rob 40%
CSI:NY 35%
CSI: Miami 60%
Rules of Engagement 51%
Two and a Half Men 99%
still hoping they will keep Unforgettable and maybe move it to friday b4 blue bloods
TWO AND A HALF MEN – 100% – Final season, please. We’re begging you, please just END IT! I would rather watch a half hour of labia saturation at this point. Like, literally, 30 straight minutes of a labia being saturated. Yeah, I’d rather watch that.
UNFORGETTABLE – 66 2/3% – CBS really wanted this to work even if the viewers kind of forgot to watch. I hope it gets another shot on a lower-watt night but they may not have the space.
CSI: MIAMI – 60% – If they want more original programming on Saturday, then it’s a shoe-in for that. If they don’t, then it’s gone. I believe AMC has tilted the odds in its favor, but only slightly.
RULES OF ENGAGEMENT – 33 1/3% – Okay, CBS. I got the message.
CSI: NY – 25% – Got this season by the skin of its teeth. Don’t expect it to cheat the Grim Reaper twice. By all accounts, Gary Sinise wants to move on, and I don’t want to hold him hostage if that’s true.
¡ROB! – 10% – ¡Cancelado!
A GIFTED MAN – 0% – Patrick Wilson should have spent less time seeing the ghost of his wife and more time seeing the ghost of his show.
NYC 22 – 0% – More like NYC 86, amirite?
A Gifted Man 0%
NYC 22 0%
Unforgettable 0%
Rob 10%
CSI:NY 40%
CSI: Miami 40%
Rules of Engagement 45%
Two and a Half Men 50%
Rules of Engagement should not be cancelled just in case CBS has another How To Be a Gentleman show on their line-up for the fall.
Always go with what you know, and ROE does well in viewers and the demo.
Unforgettable great show CBS is screwed up if they cancelled it!!!!!
2.5 Men…90 percent-only key is can the gang get back together.
Rules of Engagement…55 percent-I could see a similar situation to last year where they save one as a back up plan.
CSI Miami…60 percent-The glasses move to Friday.
CSI NY…40 percent-Lt. Dan needs a new gig.
Rob…15 percent-Viva la…no.
Unforgettable…5 percent-Mainly if their entire drama pilot lineup is crap.
NYC22/A Gifted Man…0 percent-They’re Jacob Marley dead.
PERSON OF INTEREST – 10 (-1)
THE BIG BANG THEORY – 10 (+1)
quote from the end of JAG before/when it became NCIS:
[Ducky is telling his findings in court]
Major McBurney: What else did you discover?
Ducky: On her left buttock, I found a tattoo of a stalking leopard. Majestic. Brilliant. I’ve only seen one other like it: on a tango dancer in Buenos Aires who died of dehydration. I was on sabbatical at the ti–
McBurney: [interrupts] Doctor, I was asking about Lieutenant Singer.
Ducky: She wasn’t in Buenos Aires…
Liked Gifted Man, NYC 22. Tried to get into Unforgettable, just couldn’t. Can’t stand the guy in “Miami” so don’t watch it, otherwise probably would.
2 1/2 not the same without Charlie. Looking forward to his new show, but afraid of disappointment.
Yeah to keeping the Wed. line up–love all 3!!
I don’t understand the Unforgettable bashing. I love the show and 10million viewers is hardly a failure. Maybe back when hit shows consistently got 15-20mil people watching but that is definitely not the case with fractured viewing these days. FWIW, TV Line says it’s a “safe bet” for renewal.
@Sasha,
1) Advertising rates, and therefore renewal decisions, are based on the 18-48 demo ratings, not total viewers.
2) Even if total viewers did matter, 10 million viewers is not impressive for CBS. CSI: NY and BB get that on Fridays.
A Gifted Man is an excellent drama with a very good cast and storylines. WHY on earth are they cancelling it except to make room for more garbage programming. Please bring it back for next season!
2.5 Men is the only one of these shows that’s certain to be renewed.
If Rules Of Engagement is renewed then it’ll be timeshared with one of the new comedies and next season will be it’s last. Ditto with CSI:Miami.
Everything else will get the axe, and that’s a shame because I personally like Rob (I don’t LOVE it but I LIKE it) and can’t stand ROE.