Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/10 Update: A Gifted Man has been canceled.
5/13 Update: Unforgettable, NYC 22, Rob and CSI:Miami have been canceled, CSI:NY has been renewed. Two and a Half Men has been renewed.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| A Gifted Man | 0% | 0% |
| NYC 22 | 0% | 0% |
| Unforgettable | 0% | 0% |
| Rob | 25% | 30% |
| CSI:NY | 35% | 45% |
| CSI: Miami | 65% | 55% |
| Rules of Engagement | 65% | 60% |
| Two and a Half Men | 95% | 99% |
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No real differences between Robert's and my final predictions for CBS shows. I'll admit that while I am certain at least one of the CSI offspring will be canceled, The Choice of CSI:NY was just a bit above a stab in the dark since it's likely driven by syndication economics that are substantially hidden from us.
To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| A Gifted Man (F)* |  |
0.45 |
| NYC 22 | |
0.46 |
| CSI:NY (F) |  |
0.56 |
| Blue Bloods (F) | renewed | 0.57 |
| The Good Wife* | renewed | 0.68 |
| CSI: Miami* | |
0.72 |
| Unforgettable | |
0.72 |
| How To Be A Gentleman * | canceled | 0.74 |
| The Mentalist | renewed | 0.90 |
| Hawaii Five-0 | renewed | 0.93 |
| CSI | renewed | 0.94 |
| Rules of Engagement | |
1.02 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | renewed | 1.04 |
| Person Of Interest | renewed | 1.05 |
| Rob* | |
1.07 |
| Criminal Minds | renewed | 1.08 |
| Mike & Molly | renewed | 1.15 |
| NCIS | renewed | 1.24 |
| How I Met Your Mother | renewed | 1.26 |
| 2 Broke Girls | renewed | 1.34 |
| Two and a Half Men |  |
1.39 |
| Big Bang Theory | renewed | 1.75 |
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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did CBS' shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
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- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
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- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012 - - certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
AGM, NYC 22 – 0%
Unforgettable – 5% (enough people elsewhere in TV somehow seem to think it’s renew-worthy that I can’t call it 0% even though I know TVBTN’s methodology is far better)
Rob – 1% (CBS won’t renew a show that won’t get to 88, and this won’t get to 88; this year’s Bleep My Dad Says)
CSI NY – 40% (it’s cheaper than Miami, and CBS wouldn’t be committed to a two-season order as they’re meant to be with Miami, so the economics probably say “renew NY”…)
CSI Miami – 60% (…but surely CBS can’t risk the reputational hit from allowing a respected franchise hit to have an unannounced series finale airing at practically midnight on the east coast?)
Rules of Engagement – 100% (why would the syndication machine that is CBS not renew the #1 spackle show on television when it’s on 87 episodes?)
Two and a Half Men – 100% (I put this below 90% until I read in comments that Kutcher has indeed agreed his squinty jillion dollar contract)
@David Howell –
[i]CSI Miami – 60% (…but surely CBS can’t risk the reputational hit from allowing a respected franchise hit to have an unannounced series finale airing at practically midnight on the east coast?)[/i]
You never know with CBS… *rolls eyes*
CANCELED
A Gifted Man
NYC 22
Rob
Unforgettable
CSI: NY
RENEWED
CSI: Miami
Rules of Engagement
Two and a Half Men
I love the guys who say CSI NY will be renewed because it’s cheaper than Miami. but that’s bullsh*t.
CSI:NY escaped cancellation last year, and this season (8) will definitly be the last. CSI:Miami is a little bit more expensive, but the show has much better syndication deals.
just my 2 cents
will 2 broke girls get a blu ray release
Dumb and dumber strike again!
PERSON OF INTEREST – 11 (+1)
THE BIG BANG THEORY – 9 (-1)
PERSON OF INTEREST – 12 (+1)
THE BIG BANG THEORY – 8 (-1)
“You got techno blaring, there’s blood running throughout the entire house. It’s like an episode of Dexter in here.”
-Marty Deeks, from NCIS: Los Angeles episode 3.22 “Neighborhood Watch”
i hope NY and Miami are renewed get rid of the stupid shows at least CSI Miami and NY are intresting
Unforgettable will definitely be missed!
i think it’s time for both csi spin offs to bite the dust. whether ready or not.
Two and half men should be renewed Jon (Alan) totally made the fun.
@Tito: I like your thinking. Eliminating both CSI spinoffs makes a little more room for Unforgettable!
I’ve mentioned this before why not have the CSI NY and CSI Miami alternate like the old Columbo, McCloud, McMillan and Wife series. All those shows lastest years because people didn’t get bored as easily with the same-o-same all the time. I remember being so excited by the Mystery Shows.
@theoneandonly
Will all due respect, your statement shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the business of television. If CBS has to choose between two shows, neither of which makes ANY money in prime time runs, they will evaluate based soley on syndication and overseas revenue. If both shows generate comparable dollars they will favor the cheaper one as it means a higher profit margin and that is the ONLY thing network suits care about.
CSI NY will be renewed for 13!
I want csi miami, csi ny, finder and nikita to stay on tv
@MikeOpete
CSI Miami had already better syndication deals without the AMC Deal. If you remember, CSI NY escaped the cancellation barely last year. And now with the AMC Deal CSI Miami has way better chances than CSI NY.
and better ratings..
PERSON OF INTEREST – 11 (-1)
THE BIG BANG THEORY – 9 (+1)
We need more than the same three people voting if PoI is going to become champion of this game (because I’ll keep voting TBBT up). And I’m almost out of CBS quotes again…
quote from NCIS [1.10]:
Tony: You remember when I stayed with you that time when it didn’t really go so well.
Gibbs: Yeah, I remember, DiNozzo.
Tony: Well, I was younger then, immature, a little unfocused.
Gibbs: It was six months ago, Tony.
You should do a final post showing the shows placing for the whole season at the end for all the nets. This is just the latter half and whilst I get why you do it this way it’d be good to see how they shake out whole season overall. POI would be way lower on that index for a start.
I think they’ll def keep CSI Miami and will stick my neck out to say that other than this prediction I ain’t got a clue.
They’d better renew CSI: NY or Moonves will be getting angry letters from my entire family.