CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • HB

    Ahhh So happy to see “Renewed” Next to TVD and SPN :D

  • Phil

    TSC will be renewed

  • IsraelCD

    DON’T CARE ANYTHING BUT RINGER !

  • Dillan

    My predictions:

    Cancelled
    Nikita and Ringer

    Renewed
    GG and HoD getting 13 episodes.
    TSC getting a full season.

  • Homer99

    Nikita must be renewed!

  • Brittney

    The CW is such a mess. I hope TSC comes back but I’ve put myself in the mindset that it won’t.

  • Charmed

    You’re kidding me, right? The show with the highest chance of getting renewed can’t get 1 million viewers?

  • fasted

    TSC and HofD may been renewed

  • HB

    GG is definitely getting renewed (even with the terrible ratings)for a shortened season.One of the producers/writers posted a picture of “Gossip Girl Season 6″

    For the rest,I watch Nikita only and I like it a lot.But with those numbers, it doesn’t have a chance.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “You’re kidding me, right? The show with the highest chance of getting renewed can’t get 1 million viewers?”

    Among the remaining CW shows, yes.

    Bring the crazy!

  • Sid

    The L.A. Complex- 0%
    Ringer- 0%
    Nikita- 50%
    Hart Of Dixie- 45%
    The Secret Circle-35%
    Gossip Girl- 60%

  • Phil

    Cannot see GG lasting a full season next season

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    Hart Of Dixie

    45%

    55%

    LOVE IT! I hope it’s cancelled.

  • Bee

    if a freshman series gets a renewal, make it HOD. anything else would be ridiculous because it just got another 0.6 and is making it all on its own. ringer and LA complex don’t have the numbers and TSC is doing terrible even with their best lead-in and promotional efforts. nikita should get the edge over TSC also.

  • SmG

    GG will be renewed with 800k viewers, this must an historic moment for broadcast television :)

  • Jenny

    Hart Of Dixie 100% renewed

  • Jenny

    The CW should sell Hart Of Dixie to NBC. And NBC should put it in the time slot following The Voice, Hart Of Dixie ratings would soar and NBC would have a hit show for years to come !

  • Justin

    Im thinking GG will get a final shortened season. They’ll want to end it properly.

    The Im actually leaning towards Hart of Dixie and Nikita getting a renewal… I think TSC is dunzo…

    I’m going to miss Ringer. :-(

  • tao

    Hart of Dixie will/should get it. It can hold up a 0.6 with such a low lead in, it’s even been holding up to having better ratings than Gossip Girl since it first premiered. And TSC is getting 0.5′s with a 1.0 and up demo? Safer call would be HOD.

  • Charmed

    The LA Complex – 0%
    Ringer – 25%
    The Secret Circle – 30%
    Nikita – 35%
    Gossip Girl – 50%
    Hart Of Dixie – 100%

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