CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • SmG

    TSC-Season 2 No Decision Yet

    Just got off the phone with Andrew Miller. The CW still hasn’t decided on The Secret Circle season 2, so keep your extremities crossed.

    -SpoilerTV

  • Laurent

    Even if I love Ringer, We know that the show will not coming back next year :’( (It was one of the most intelligent show of the cw…)
    I hate Hart Of Dixie but if the show is renew, it deserves this because the ratings are not really bad when we see Gossip Girl, The Secret Circle, Nikita & Ringer.
    Nikita must be cancelled, last year Nikita was already in danger it’s the same thing this year so, the show had his second chance. Gossip Girl Girl too. Ringer well… Even if i would love to see a second season, I know it’s not gonna happen.
    The Secret Circle ? Pathetic ratings with Vampire Diaries as a lead in -> no excuse = cancelled.

    Hart Of Dixie can be renewed ;)

  • Filippo

    Ringer 0%
    Secret Circle 50%
    Nikita 55%
    Hart of Dixie 75%
    Gossip Girl 99%

  • Sheena

    I thought “Ringer” was/is an okay show, although, I will admit, it got a bit… bizarre, for lack of a better word, with it’s plot turns. As a “Buffy” fan, I wanted this show to do well.

  • Missp

    loL every show on cw has pathetic ratings. TVD ratings aren’t that exceptional. I mean a network where the hit has just average 1.3 (…)1.0 in demo is a walking dead network.

    You know tnt cancel show with rating like that. Next year it will be worst and I bet that TVD will be below 1.0 from time to time.

    ringer 0%
    nikita 45%
    hod 50%
    TSC 70%
    GG 90%

  • Pete

    @ smg

    So much for TSC being completely dead as stated by spoilertv yesterday.

  • Mary

    Seems to me it will be a real last minute decision, however Nikita’s fate will be revealed only a coupe days before its final goes to air.

  • josh

    Wich netwok launched the original Nikita 10 years ago?

  • Pete

    If TSC is renewed where will the CW put it anyway? Without TVD as a lead-in next season, I don’t think it will stand on its own.

    HoD is much stronger in ratings even with the horrible lead-in. It should come back.

    Nikita’s survival depends on where Arrow is launched. Nikita’s only home is Friday 8pm. If Arrow premieres on Friday 8pm, I don’t think Nikita have a spot to stay.

  • Amanda

    All I really care about is that OTH ended on a high note!!! :)

  • Tabitha

    The LA Complex-0%
    Ringer-0%
    Nikita-30%
    The Secret Circle-35%
    Gossip Girl-50% (final season 13 episodes)
    Hart Of Dixie-55%

  • Pete

    That last Pete was not me btw it was imposter.

  • Captain

    My guess is Nikita, Ringer and Hart of Dixie all get canceled.

  • lois

    No one knows for sure. Like I said they been trying to get rid of Hart of Dixie for months now. It will be canceled for sure. Nothing.to. with the show. Everything has came out about it.

  • Mickey

    @Josh

    The original Nikita launched on CTV, a Canadian network, and concurrently aired on USA Network in the States.

    A breakdown of the upfronts. Interestingly, NBC has gained the most over last year. Not surprisingly, CW lost the most, followed pretty closely by FOX.

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/upfronts-fall-tv-nbc-abc-fox-cbs-cw-321904

  • Mickey

    Isn’t FOX the youngest skewing network after the CW? Probably not a coincidence then it’s next to line to lose viewers as they shift to DVR and online viewing.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    KS: “What makes you think, the would attract more male viewers if the family part is missing?”

    I doubt that male viewers are all that interested in the fact that these guys are brothers. And if they WEREN’T brothers, as I said, it might make it more significant when they break up and then patch up their differences. The obvious concept of the show is that brothers pretty much have to stick together – even if they’re Hunters – but if they weren’t, it could lead to more drama.

    But I don’t think that change would attract more male viewers – it just would increase the drama.

    Of course, one could argue that the fact that these guys have other family members involved in Hunting is another useful element in the show that would be lost if they were just two unrelated guys.

    I’m just saying that the whole family dynamic and brothers bit doesn’t affect me at all. I’m there for the action and the story arcs. And I appreciate the decent acting. But I do enjoy the relationships the brothers have with other people, especially Bobbie and his “idjits” comments. :-)

    And in most episodes there are more than enough females around to hold down that aspect. I really enjoyed seeing Emilie Ullerup from Sanctuary earlier and Felicia Day the other week and Jewel Staite some episodes back.

  • SarahW

    @KS
    And two, this is the only website I really post and I am unfortunately well noted even by the administrators as one crazy obsessed SPN fan. (For instance, In this thread many male fans actually expressed their thoughts on Supernatural. When I posted the similar ones a few days back, I got a lot of criticism that I am a big hater – Thanks to my poor English vocabulary)

    The problem is that you ARE a big hater. In most of your posts you either hate on Castiel (especially), the writers, the plot, the actors, the fans, the fanpages and on and on. I have no idea why you are even watching the show since you seem to find it very hard to find anything to enjoy about it.

    And it’s not just here since I’ve found your comments on Huffington Post as well where all you do is say “We don’t want Castiel back. Castiel sucks.” And what’s with the royal we? It is certainly not the whole fandom you are speaking for. And this comes from someone who have watched since season one and like to see the boys evolve and grow instead of staying stale and they can only do so by interacting with others around them, and by others I mean people like Castiel and Bobby and not corpse of the week.

    If you don’t want to be seen as a hater, maybe you shouldn’t post your hate ALL THE TIME! And it’s not becuase people are misunderstanding your English.

    I, for one, am getting pretty tired of reading your constant Castiel bashing everywhere and especially on this site. You say you lose enjoyment of the show by visiting fanpages because you feel they disrespect the way you see the show, but you are doing the exact same thing to others yourself. If you hate Castiel so much, I would suggest you don’t watch the show. Especially as he seems to be coming back for next season (hopefully).

  • josh

    @Mickey

    Thank`s

  • Pete

    @Pete

    This is a coincidence I guess. I didn’t imitate you on purpose.

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