CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • tao

    @HotLatino4GayMarriage

    What are your issues with Hart of Dixie? You’re always posting ridiculous comments about it, I’m guessing you’re a bitter Ringer fan?

  • mgbhighlander

    I love Secret Circle. I hope they give it a chance. I’m glad to hear about Supernatural’s renewal. Yeah!

  • Adrian

    The L.A. Complex- 0%
    Ringer- 0%
    Nikita- 50%
    Hart Of Dixie- 50%
    The Secret Circle-30%
    Gossip Girl- 55%

    L.A. Complex will live in Canada not the CW.

    Ringer is deader than dead. Period.

    Nikita can go either way. It’s ratings are really bad but it’s not like anything other than TVD would do better in Friday.Friday should be the least priority IMO since they desperately need to fix weekdays first now that only two shows on Mon-Thur can pull 0.7 and one of those (OTH) is done.

    HOD never got much of a chance in the first place maybe it get 13 episodes. Back-9 if it stays stable, or it could stay 13 eps to be paired with some other mid-season show.

    TSC is done. It will hardly get new viewers, it can’t stay behind TVD and it’s too weak to go to Friday. Cancel this embarrasment please.

    GG has not a showrunner yet and that 0.4 is a red flag. Final seasons announcements did not do that much for SV and OTH, so I doubt it will do anything for GG, but since they’re going to need something to fill in gaps next season they might as well give it a final 13 ep. season.

  • A

    GG IS coming back though.
    The writers on twitter already said so. Even if its 13 episodes.
    Im sorry to get you pressed, GG haters. :D

  • Harris

    If they give any of those shows more than a 13 episode initial pickup, they are crazy.

  • Mickey

    Nice to see “renewed” next to Supernatural.

    I can’t believe the CW will renew a show now getting 0.4 and 860,000. I honestly don’t see the upside.

  • Bookworm

    I think GG will get renewed though I can’t give you one ounce of a reason why it should be; with that, it will be its last season and probably a shorter one.

  • Harris

    They should really cut GG to the bare minimum needed to complete the series. 13 episodes is more than is strictly necessary. They could get away with 5-10 episodes and still neatly wrap up the series, I am sure.

  • Sel

    The L.A. Complex – 0%
    Ringer – 10%
    The Secret Circle – 25%
    Gossip Girl – 50%
    Nikita – 60%
    Hart Of Dixie – 100%

    Not a fan of any of these shows, but that’s the way I see it!

  • jens2488

    With deadline reporting that the CW is on track to order 5-6 new dramas this season, I expect GG to return for a 13 episodes final season. They may give HoD a 13 episodes order to fill in somewhere midseason or they will give Nikita 13 episodes and let it stay put on Fridays for fall and move another show there midseason.

    Deadline is pretty reliable, but of course no guarantee, but if the CW orders 5 or even 6 new shows, there won`t be much space for old shows to return. I read somewhere that Arrow, Carrie Diaries, Beauty & Beast, Cult and First Cut are sure things, while The Selection will battle for a spot with the bubble shows. Considering how bad all bubble shows on the cw do (yes a 0.6 is bad and HoD has been lower too) and with a new boss in charge I would give the new show a try.

    Cancelled: Ringer, TSC, HoD, The LA Complex
    1 out of HoD and Nikita renewed
    Renewed: GG (13 episodes)

  • Scott M

    With Monday’s results of Gossip Girl I’ll downgrade it from 90% to 75%

    Hart of Dixie – 75%
    Secret Circle – 40%
    Nikita – 25%
    Ringer, LA complex – 0%

    Kinda surprised you guys have Nikita that high. Unfortunately I don’t see it getting renewed.

  • Millie

    Tsc will b renewed. It did gr8 most of the season. Cw does not 4 get that nd it raised 20 percent in the rating last eispode nd it unique. Unlike a lot of other shows there is nothing else like it on tv. Besides magical shows have a way in raising in the ratings in future seasons. If all magical shows were cancelled after the first season not doing well supernatural would have been dead after season 1 nd charmed would never had gotten 8 seasons. Tsc will b rback nd if the writers do things right the ratings will go up.

  • Pete

    There is absolutely no doubt about it that TSC will be renewed.

  • Tom

    LAC 0%
    Ringer 0%
    Nikita 30% (It should be zero. But does CW run for three/four years to get anything else to syndication? Whereas they can probably guarantee one more development cycle…)
    HoD 80%
    TSC 60%
    GG 85% (Syndication backend + actors under contract.)

  • Pete

    LOL @ all the deluded people who have 100% next to Flop of Dxie

  • Pete

    @ Millie you talk sense bravo

  • David

    If you think TSC has a high chance of getting renewed, you have to just be a fan of the show. It is now .1 higher than Nikita, which is on a Friday. Where do you move it? Friday will be the worst because that viewership is not for that shows demographic. TVD was its perfect match and they failed to hold what they had earlier in the season and if you put it any other place it will do worse than it is now.

    I am a fan of Nikita, but I know that the only hope that show has is that none of the current shows would do well on a Friday. It depends on if they are willing to put a new show on a Friday and if the money makes since to WB. People mention international sales, but that only means something if WB is getting their money back.

    I also don’t see HOD going because it looks cheap to produce and they hardly promoted it and it still did ok. But, I just cannot see anyway that TSC is brought back because it fits nowhere else on that network for next season since Thursday will go to a new show.

  • Andrea

    Bill,

    CW marketing spent some dough on advertising Nikita in the trades, ie the back cover of Hollywood Reporter, and on Deadline, last week.

    Any speculation as to whether the CW would have done this if the show was not returning?

  • Mi

    GG is getting renewed and will get a 13 episodes last season. I hope they save it to the spring and launch Cult’s 13 episodes in the fall.

    B&tB is rumored to be a midseason pickup. I’d save whichever rookie show renewed (TSC or Hod) to midseason too and think TSC’s renewal is dependent on whether The Selection is picked up or not. If it is picked up, TSC will be cancelled and if it isn’t it’ll be renewed.
    Personally, I’d cancel all 3 and Nikita, but don’t think the CW have enough bandwidth for that.

  • Sports Preemption

    Of course CW took the early lead and is running away with the comment race.

    I don’t even want to get into what I think will happen, because I frankly don’t watch or care about the station, but it’s now or never.

    Ringer is dead, GG gets a short final season, and I think HoD, Nikita, and TSC are at 60%, 50%, and 40% respectively. Best of luck to all the respective fanbases. Get your tin hats out and pray to your respective TPTB altars.

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