Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| The L.A. Complex | 0% | 0% |
| Ringer | 5% | 2% |
| Nikita | 40% | 45% |
| Hart Of Dixie | 45% | 55% |
| The Secret Circle | 55% | 45% |
| Gossip Girl | 80% | 78% |
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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.
To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The L.A. Complex |  |
0.45 |
| Ringer* | |
0.68 |
| Nikita (F) |  |
0.69 |
| Gossip Girl |  |
0.83 |
| Hart Of Dixie | |
0.83 |
| 90210 | renewed | 0.98 |
| The Secret Circle | |
0.99 |
| One Tree Hill* | final season | 1.07 |
| Supernatural (F) | renewed | 1.08 |
| Vampire Diaries | renewed | 1.82 |
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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
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- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
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- certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
Exactly and there’s no way they’d go through the trouble of recasting her.
@Rachel
Ah thank you so much =) That explains a lot didn’t really like her in Friday Night Lights either.
Who knows, The Selection might be picked up later on during the upfronts. 5 dramas are picked up, its a huge surprise. But Deadline was right. I guess its also right about cancellation of Ringer and TSC.
I think its a step in the right direction passing on Selection. If Arrow and Cult become hits and TCD crashes, Mark P. will definetely get out of this target demo thing in 2013.
1.Supernatural
2.90210
3.The Vampire Diaries
The only shows with 22-24 episode order for season 2012-2013.
I hope CW will start having a good time and at least 2 out of 5 dramas successful.
Nikita – Renewed for 3rd Season
spoilertv
NIKITA RENEWED!
Nikita renewed for 3rd season. Congratulations Bondoel. RIP TSC.
Monday
Arrow (new)
Heart of Dixie
Tuesday
90210
First Cut (new)
Wednesday
The Carrie Diaries (new)
Top Model / Gossip Girl (new time)
Thursday
The Vampire Diaries
Beauty & the Beast (new) / Cult (new)
Friday
Nikita
Supernatural
No surprise: The CW picks up Arrow, TCD, Cult, First Cut and B&tB.
http://www.tvovermind.com/thecw/the-cw-picks-up-carrie-diaries-arrow-cult-first-cut-beauty-and-the-beast/#.T62AamTAqb8.twitter
So, the rest are defacto cancelled with this Nikita renewal?
monday
First Cut
Hart of Dixie (13)Shelter (13)
tuesday
90210
The Carrie Diaires
Wednesday
ANMT/Gossip Girl(13)/ANTM
The Beauty and The Beast(13) The Selection (13)
Thursday
The Vampire Diaires
Arrow
Friday
Supernatural
Cult (13) The Secret Circle (13)
Just saw Nikita for season 3 nevermind on my schedule
dang…the secret Circle is a goner
Doing the math, we’ve got 10 slots and 9 shows: TVD, SPN, 90210, ANTM, Arrow, TCD, Cult, First Cut and B&tB.
We know Cult is 13 eps, and I’m not sure how ANTM works, does it run a full season? Unless some of the other shows are going to only run 13 eps, that doesn’t leave a lot of room for the bubble shows.
@Mickey
ICYMI Nikita is renewed.
Hart of Dixie renewed
Spoiler TV
Hart of Dixie has been renewed for 22 episodes!
Congrats to Nikita fans then!
…and Hart of Dixie fans too