CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Freyja

    @Rachel

    Ah thank you so much =) That explains a lot didn’t really like her in Friday Night Lights either.

  • KS

    Who knows, The Selection might be picked up later on during the upfronts. 5 dramas are picked up, its a huge surprise. But Deadline was right. I guess its also right about cancellation of Ringer and TSC.

  • SmG

    I think its a step in the right direction passing on Selection. If Arrow and Cult become hits and TCD crashes, Mark P. will definetely get out of this target demo thing in 2013.

  • KS

    1.Supernatural
    2.90210
    3.The Vampire Diaries

    The only shows with 22-24 episode order for season 2012-2013.

    I hope CW will start having a good time and at least 2 out of 5 dramas successful.

  • vic

    Nikita – Renewed for 3rd Season

    spoilertv

  • Sid

    NIKITA RENEWED!

  • KS

    Nikita renewed for 3rd season. Congratulations Bondoel. RIP TSC.

  • Ginger

    Monday
    Arrow (new)
    Heart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    90210
    First Cut (new)

    Wednesday
    The Carrie Diaries (new)
    Top Model / Gossip Girl (new time)

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    Beauty & the Beast (new) / Cult (new)

    Friday
    Nikita
    Supernatural

  • Mickey
  • SmG

    So, the rest are defacto cancelled with this Nikita renewal?

  • James

    monday
    First Cut
    Hart of Dixie (13)Shelter (13)

    tuesday
    90210
    The Carrie Diaires

    Wednesday
    ANMT/Gossip Girl(13)/ANTM
    The Beauty and The Beast(13) The Selection (13)

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaires
    Arrow

    Friday
    Supernatural
    Cult (13) The Secret Circle (13)

  • James

    Just saw Nikita for season 3 nevermind on my schedule

  • James

    dang…the secret Circle is a goner :(

  • Mickey

    Doing the math, we’ve got 10 slots and 9 shows: TVD, SPN, 90210, ANTM, Arrow, TCD, Cult, First Cut and B&tB.

    We know Cult is 13 eps, and I’m not sure how ANTM works, does it run a full season? Unless some of the other shows are going to only run 13 eps, that doesn’t leave a lot of room for the bubble shows.

  • KS

    @Mickey

    ICYMI Nikita is renewed.

  • vic

    Hart of Dixie renewed

    Spoiler TV

  • vic

    Hart of Dixie has been renewed for 22 episodes!

  • Mickey

    Congrats to Nikita fans then!

  • vic

    …and Hart of Dixie fans too :)

  • vic

    Ringer – Cancelled
    The Secret Circle – Renewed

    Spoiler TV

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