CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

-
Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
-
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

-
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • vic

    Gossip Girl renewed!

    Deadline

  • vic

    Correction:

    The Secret Circle – Cancelled

    Spoiler TV

  • SmG

    TSC-cancelled

    -SpoilerTV

  • vic

    Gossip Girl – renewed for 11 episode final season

    Spoiler TV

  • Kate

    Incredibly surprised that HOD and Nikita got full season orders. Ah well, congrats to their fans!

    So 3 of the ordered pilots will be full seasons, the other two will be 13 episodes. Cult is getting 13, my guess is it will be between B&TB and First Cut. Although I wish they’d give TCD the 13 episodes and put it in the same spot as GG

  • Shanyn

    Hart of Dixie and Gossip Girl renewed. Secret Circle and Ringer cancelled!

  • vic

    Well. Now you can see that I was right when I wrote since February that TSC is overrated here and this show was 2nd candidate for cancellation!

    Bill marked TSC as “more likely to be renewed” till April 24th. It was his big mistake :)

  • vic

    Nikita – season 3 – 22 episodes ordered

    Spoiler TV

  • Peter Mazz

    UGH! I Hate the CW Now! Renew NIkita and cancel TSC? ARRG! I hope that if the Carrie Diaries is a huge flop and gets cancelled just with 2 – 4 episodes (just like TBL) The Secret circle takes its slot :D

  • seif

    NIKITA has got to be renewed! all the actors in TSC are very bad, and Nikita is awesome!

  • Melanie

    I said: I think HOD comes back, at least for 13 episodes. I think Ringer and Secret Circle will be cancelled and Nikita will be renewed for a full season. I just can’t make a call on Gossip Girl – I’d like to say cancelled, but I can’t believe it will be. One thing is certain – it won’t get a full season pick-up unless factors other than ratings are driving the bus.”

    HOD got 22 episodes instead of 13 and GG only got 10 or 11 — I was pretty much right on the money! :)

    The Selection pilot must have been pretty bad. I’m excited for Arrow, Cult and Beauty & the Beast.

  • melissa

    SC is an awesome show and it gets better ever show. It needs to be renewed cant let it just go after what we have seen. Or sell it to another network so it can keep going. Love the show as much as VD. Just saying in my own thoughts im sure others have differnt thoughts but im just sharing mine hope that SC well get renewed

  • Razrblazr

    can’t believe they cancelled TSC smh

  • Rémi

    I can’t believe this ! The show only went down at the end. The final get ride of all the boring stories. They give them all their solo magic back. They could have done great season, and the ending was awsome… What is so unfair is that they didn’t give it a chance, they already did it for shows like Nikita or Life Unexpected but not for this one ? I really do hate the CW for that very crappy decision. They could have chosen to do a proper ending to the show and not a cliffhanger ! (I’m french, sorry if I’m not clear :D)

  • Rémi

    I was waiting for a show about witchcraft since charmed endded. This one only goes for one season. Because of them , we will not have another one until some years. It really sucks. I just can’t still believe it.

  • Richard

    What the Helll !!!!!! Y r They Canceliing The Secret Cirlce Its The Best Show Ever

  • Richard

    DNT CANCEL IT DNT CANCEL THE Secret Cirlce

  • Richard

    ALL MY FRIENDS LOVE IT ITS AMAZING

  • Richard

    THE Secret Cirlce Its The Best

  • Richard

    I WILLL NEVER WATCH CW AGAIN IF THEY CANCEL THE SECRET Cirlce

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures