CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • JJJ

    Gossip Girl–13 episodes

    Ringer–5%

    Secret Society–30%

    Nikita–45%(cancelled but maybe 13 episodes)

    Heart of Dixie–80%

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “CW marketing spent some dough on advertising Nikita in the trades, ie the back cover of Hollywood Reporter, and on Deadline, last week.

    Any speculation as to whether the CW would have done this if the show was not returning?”

    Current ratings = ad money.

  • _JC

    I hope it’s Nikita that survives. It probably won’t be – I seem fated to lose at least one show I really, REALLY like every year, and Chuck/Fringe used up all my good luck in that area – but it would be nice :/

  • kate

    I know that Gossip Girl will definitely get renewed, but is it possible for The CW to renew both TSC and Hart of Dixie? Or is it basically a fight between those two for a spot?

  • Harris

    _JC: I would kill to lose just one show a year.. Or just 5 shows a year..

  • Aerilyn

    I’m not making any guesses, but I’m just hoping the CW renews The Secret Circle. It has been one of their strongest performers all season long and only after its most recent hiatus did it hit low. I’m hoping CW renews TSC though, because the show has become incredibly good and a second season could do it wonders.

    So, I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the CW renews TSC. So please, tune in LIVE on Thursday and watch the season finale folks! You won’t regret it.

  • Z

    Ringer – 5%
    Nikita – 25%
    HoD – 25%
    TSC – 10%
    GG – 50%

  • Dave

    Possible CW Sechedule:

    Mondays:
    8/7c ARROW-New Drama
    9/8c Hart of Dixie(only 13 episodes with possible back 9).
    A nice light-heart drama after an intense episode of ARROW might do good. Beauty and the Beast could share the Mon 9p slot with Dixie.

    Tuesdays:
    8/7c 9O21O
    9/8c The Carrie Diaries- New Drama
    Both shows attract the same demographic and they both are part of a HUGE franchise, I don’t see a better pairing. GOSSIP GIRL could easily replace it however midseason.

    Wednesdays:
    8/7c FIRST CUT- New Drama
    9/8c ANTM
    The show seems a lock and it’s the only place it seems suitable.

    Thursdays:
    8/7c THE VAMPIRE DIARIES
    9/8c THE SELECTION- New Drama
    I don’t have much hope for THE SELECTION, but I see CULT as the perfect midseason replacement.

    Fridays:
    8/7c SUPERNATURAL
    9/8c NIKITA
    I still don’t get the logic of The CW. SPN is their second highest rated drama so I don’t see why they can’t use it to help another show(like they do with TVD). I don’t get the whole bad language/too dark to be an 8p show either. I see more violent things on the 6p news than I see on SPN sometimes.

    BOTTOM LINE:

    CW could easily pick up 5-6 shows. But all will not get a Fall spot. I think CULT and B%tB are good choices for mid-season along with GOSSIP GIRL. My schedule also allows NIKITA and Hart of Dixie to both get renewals.

    SECRET CIRCLE is an amateur spin-off of TVD that just didn’t take off, CANCEL IT CW!

    RINGER is an obvious choice for cancellation so I won’t bother explaining.

  • rob60990

    The L.A. Complex- 0%
    Ringer- 5%
    Nikita- 20%
    Hart Of Dixie- 65%
    The Secret Circle-45%
    Gossip Girl- 75%

  • CJ

    Canceled:
    Ringer
    The Secret Circle
    LA Complex

    Renewed:
    Nikita
    Hart of Dixie
    (shortened) Gossip Girl

  • Justin

    Just by looking at those ratins u can tell whats happening. Ringer will for sure be cancelledn so its up to Nikita, Hart of Dixie, and TSC. Now of the three by the looks of it TSC has the better chance of the three. But between Nikita and HoD look at the ratings .69 for Nikita on a friday and .83 for HoD. Now i think friday is their least important day thats why every channel call’s it the dead zone (although it turns out a lot of shows stay alive still like Smallville and Supernatural) and with a .63 thats not bad especially since its been staying still and rising for the last 2-3 weeks. HoD has been dropping and staying and i think the CW would rather want a new show to have a better chance on a monday-thursday day instead of replacing Nikita for friday. Thats a big edge Nikita has over HoD which is it has friday and not as important to be replaced. Plus Nikita and Supernatural help keep the guys involved with the Cw which even though its not their priority it helps.

  • Hades

    I don’t think any of them should come back but even with all the new shows the CW is rumoured to be picking up there will still be gaps to plug.

    So I’ll go with GG, HOD, Nikita and TSC renewed for 13 episodes each heres why

    Monday
    8-The Carrie Diaries
    9-GG/The Selection

    (CW have reservations about picking up The Selection but right now I think they should just take the risk and give it a 13 episode order to air after the winter hiatus)

    Tuesday
    8-First Cut
    9-90210

    Wednesday
    8-ANTM/Cult/ANTM
    9-HOD/Beauty and the Beast

    (Cult and Beauty to air at the same time)

    Thursday
    8-TVD
    9-Arrow

    Friday
    8-Nikita/TSC
    9-Supernatural

    None of the 4 will come back beyond the 13 episodes unless they happen to actually by some miracle make ratings gains or any new shows fail spectacularly.

  • Lisa

    Those are super-generous percentages for Nikita.

    My guesses.
    The L.A. Complex 0%
    Ringer 5%
    Nikita 15%
    Hart Of Dixie 50%
    The Secret Circle 60%
    Gossip Girl 75%

  • Pete

    At the end of the day Nikita had its chance at a second season one year ago and its failed by constantly bringing in 0.4s week after week.

    HOD has been getting 0.6s in recent weeks but for the majority of its season its underperformed + the fact similar shows to it are in the running to be picked up next year so why would it be a priority?

    Ringer is dead due to the ratings and Sarah Michelle’s convenient pregnancy.

    TSC has got a few 0.5s in recent weeks but for the majority of this year alone is scored consecutive 0.7s and 0.8s which the CW will most certainly consider when renewing. It is also a fantasy genre show like Charmed that has potential to grow in popularity and have really great DVD sales.

  • John

    The L.A. Complex 5%
    Ringer 5%
    Nikita 20%
    Hart Of Dixie 40%
    The Secret Circle 60%
    Gossip Girl 75%

  • Jake

    @SmG
    GG will be renewed with 800k viewers, this must an historic moment for broadcast television

    I know I hate the autocorrect too. Didn’t you mean hysterical moment…. ;)

  • Leah

    I’m rooting for The Secret Circle to get renewed. I think that show has really made some strides these last few episodes and I’d be really upset not to see another season. Plus, it’s created by Kevin Williamson aka Mr. TVD, and the CW no doubt has faith in him to pull out something great for the show next year.

    And Gossip Girl? I’ve loved that show since the beginning, but it’s time to end it. The story lines are getting more and more ridiculous by the episode and it reached its peak a long time ago. The ratings are awful and it’s taking up space for a new show. Since I know it will be renewed, I’m hoping for a quick 13 episodes to conclude the final season.

  • Melanie

    I think HOD has the edge over TSC (if they are in direct competition.)It’s ratings seem to have stabilized, it builds on its (pathetic) lead-in and there’s no special effects budget. On the other hand, TSC’s ratings continue to drift downward and it squanders its lead-in every week. There are several fantasy pilots that have a chance to do better – HOD seems like better schedule spackle to me – which is all any of the renewals of these M-TH sub 1.0 shows will be.
    Call me crazy, but I think Nikita will be renewed – its a waste of time to move another (already low rated) show like TSC to Fridays.

  • It Girl

    The LA Complex – 0%
    Gossip Girl – 35%
    The Secret Circle – 40% / Hart Of Dixie – 40%
    Ringer – 50%
    Nikita – 70%

  • Freyja

    What I am hoping is that the CW follows more of the cable model for their schedule which will help improve the writing and the shows ratings. And allow them to pick up more shows than normal in case a few fail lol

    Run the first 11 episodes from Early Sept to December (no Breaks)
    Then the second 11 episodes from late Feb-May(no breaks)

    But for some reason I don’t see the networks changing all that much, maybe The CW can lead the way =)

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