CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard

    N I BET I M NOT THE ONLY 1 THAT WILL STOP WATCHING THE CW IF THE SECRET Cirlce IS CANCELED

  • Richard

    IM SO MADDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

  • Richard

    THE SECRET Cirlce TOUCHED MY HEART IT SPOKE TO ME I LOVE IT DONT THEY DARE CANCEL IT

  • Richard

    Noot COOL DNT CANCEL THE SECRET Cirlce

  • Richard

    i will NEVERRRR EVER WATCH CW IF THEY CANCEL IT

  • Richard

    PLEASE GOD DNT LET THE Secret Circle BE CANCELD

  • Angy

    Keep TSC and HOD PLEASE!
    I really enjoy watching these shows. So tired of reality TV that I want to have my cable disconnected so that I don’t have to see them anymore.

  • Ryan

    Monday – Arrow, Nikita
    Tuesday – 90210, The Carrie Diaries
    Wednesday – Gossip Girl (11) Cult (13) Americas Next Top Model
    Thursday – The vampire Diaries, Supernatural
    Friday – Beauty and the Beast, Hart of Dixie

  • Ricky

    I’m now LOL’ing at the earlier comments saying TVWise wasn’t reliable, especially as everything (except CBS, still waiting) they said would happen in that article actually did.

  • SmG

    Although this post is not entirely about CW, I’m posting it here, since the renewal/cancellation posts are going over 600 entries :D

    Seasonal Synopsis

    Shows I watched on Big Four+CW:

    ABC- Revenge, OuAT, Charlie’s Angels

    NBC-Awake,Parenthood,Playboy Club

    CBS-TGW, Mentalist, POI

    FOX-House,Terra Nova,Touch

    CW-TVD, TSN, OTH

    9 out of 15 coming back, not bad considering I knew this was the last season for House and One Tree Hill, and Playboy Club and Charlie’s Angels got cancelled in just a few episodes without being invested in too much. Terra Nova was kind of obvious at the beginning (too expensive). I’m only sad about Awake.

    Now if we come to the CW:

    Ringer- I am (maybe was?) a huge SMG fan, hence I’m using my old nickname on this site from my high school years (that was the Buffy era, you’ve guessed it right). After Buffy, Sarah couldn’t do anything spectacular. At the time, I always thought she would be a huge actress in movies. I’ve seen most of her work and nothing worth remembering. I think her best movies are Cruel Intentions and Harvard Man, which were made at the time of Buffy. After that, she only made Grudge (which I think was horrible) which became a box office hit and that was in 2004. So, I was rooting for her comeback to TV after all these years and make another memorable series (I think thats what the folks at CW thought also). I watched the pilot of Ringer and went on for a few episodes (till the one where Polaha was wiping blood of the wall something like that), then dropped it. It was one of the most boring shows I’ve ever watched, especially watching Revenge at the same time made it look more inferior to me. I loved Polaha’s acting on LUX, but he was really bad in this one. I’m not even mentioning the “famous boat scene” :) Overall, CBS was right passing on this pilot in the first place. With SMG’s paycheck and the amount of promotion given, this must be the biggest disappoinment CW had in years.

    HoD:I was a huge O.C. fan in college. It was a really big hit in here (Turkey), I think even bigger than GG or OTH. There we met this hot chick called Summer Roberts and her “ewwws”. For old times sake, I checked the pilot of HoD and went on a few episodes as well (till “gumbo” (wtf?) episode), I think this show tries to achieve that old WB feeling like Privileged and LUX. But I dont think it is as good as those shows. I hear it is compared to Gilmore Girls, but I could not get that feeling (other than the set, which exactly looks like Stars Hollow), I always thought this was the one definetly getting cancelled first at the beginning of the season. In a surprising turn of events, here we are. Since, its renewed I may watch it over the summer for Rachel. We’ll see…

    Nikita-I am definitely into spy/action shows and was a huge fan of 24. I was glad that this show was picked up last season, since it’s more of a male targeting show and it is nice to know that CW is not a “girly-show” network completely and there is something for us too :) I watched the first season completely, but started to lose interest in the middle. There were some news about how Dawn Ostroff was not happy with the ratings and the show needs some “tweaking”. They sort of created a love triangle at the time and this “Mikita” vs. whatever nonsense started. The show became more “CW”. When I heard it was moved to Fridays this season, I decided not to watch, assuming it will definetly get cancelled and here we are again. Since it is coming back (probably for 2 seasons?) and everybody is saying good things about it, I’ll catch up with this one over the summer too.

    TSC-Seeing that it was from Kevin W., I decided to give it a shot as well, thinking it may be the next TVD. I loved Britt in LUX, but I dont think that she can carry a show as the main character. I watched it till when one of the characters got killed after a few episodes. This show’s quality was not anywhere near TVD, I think Kevin W. just gave his name like JJ Abrams sometimes does. I also think that it looked even worse for the viewers in US since it was after TVD. I am sorry for the fans though especially after last nights “its renewed, no no its cancelled” debacle. I think fans of the actors on the show should not worry, because CW always uses the same actors over and over again (not that i’m not complaining but i am looking at you Katie Cassidy), so they’ll probably end up on another CW series sooner than you think!

    TVD and TSN are great, watching them from the beginning and probably watch them till the end. I’ll come back for GG finale when it airs (I dropped in the middle of season 4). I’ll miss OTH. Never watched 90210 (except the pilot) so no idea about that one. Planning to watch Arrow, Cult and maybe B&B next season. Looking forward to the trailers of new shows…and, that’s it :)

  • Nina

    Is everyone sure about the HoD or Nikita renewals? How accurate is spoiler tv? I’m confused I thought that CW up fronts were later next week.

  • dannielle

    i think they are stupid for canceling tsc and keeping the heart of dixie. i hate that they started a good show and took it away so other stupid shows can be aired. boooooo cw im done with you

  • SmG

    Nikita leaving Friday?

    Nothing is confirmed yet so take this with a grain of salt
    but here is possible schedule via some sources in the CW

    some shocker include Nikita moving out of Friday
    Monday
    Hart of Dixie
    First Cut

    Tuesday
    90210
    Carrie Diaries

    Wednesday
    Beauty and the Beast
    Nikita

    Thursday
    Vampire Diaries
    Arrow

    Friday
    America’s Next Top Model
    Supernatural

    Midseason
    Gossip Girl
    Cult

    -SpoilerTV

  • DH1987

    I know alot of people keep saying “oh how can you say The Secret Circle was doing good? It was losing alot of its lead in from Vampire Diaries”……What you fail to include is the fact that The Secret Circle faces Grey’s Anatomy. I’m willing to bet that alot of those people who were watching TVD switched over to Grey’s. TVD & Grey’s skew towards the same demographic moreso than TSC does in terms of drama. Still even with that though The Secret Circle was really only being beat on it’s network by TVD & Supernatural for the season. Hopefully the CW realizes this and changes their decision, especially since I’ve read about the new shows coming…….it’s not looking bright.

  • Mickey

    @SmG

    I’ll play. (And help get over 600.)

    ABC Castle, OUAT

    NBC Chuck

    CBS HIMYM, Two and a Half Men, H50, Big Bang Theory

    FOX Bones, The Finder

    CW Supernatural

    Chuck was in its last season, so I only lost The Finder.

  • Violet

    Nikitaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! So happy about season 3!

  • Mickey

    Well, somebody had to be comment number 600.

  • shelby

    i cant believe the secret circle got cancelled i stopped watching hart of dixie because i thought it would get the axe man and i really enjoyed it come on they should of just put secret circle before vampire diaries i bet it would of done better all i can say is it was higher than hart of dixie and it still gets the ax with o.99 really thats actually pretty good considering its a new show and we all know nothing would beat tvd & spn cw really sucks since i really liked ringer & the secret circle =C

  • holsieee

    please sign this to renew the secret circle! post this link wherever you can; facebook, websites like this, etc! i need the secret circle back! we all do…
    http://www.gopetition.com/petitions/please-do-not-cancel-the-secret-circle/sign.html#se

  • SmG

    @Mickey, nice retention ratio :)

    I am glad that US TV system is not limited to these 5 and there are cable channels in US which produce a lot of quality tv shows. I watch a lot of these series and thankfully all of them are coming back (PLL, Boss, Dexter, The Walking Dead, House of Lies, Southland, Homeland, Falling Skies and Damages)and also Flashpoint and Rookie Blue from Canada so in total 20 out 26 are coming back. Looking forward to some of these series to start…and yes this renewal/cancellation index passed over 600 entries :D

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