Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| The L.A. Complex | 0% | 0% |
| Ringer | 5% | 2% |
| Nikita | 40% | 45% |
| Hart Of Dixie | 45% | 55% |
| The Secret Circle | 55% | 45% |
| Gossip Girl | 80% | 78% |
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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.
To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The L.A. Complex |  |
0.45 |
| Ringer* | |
0.68 |
| Nikita (F) |  |
0.69 |
| Gossip Girl |  |
0.83 |
| Hart Of Dixie | |
0.83 |
| 90210 | renewed | 0.98 |
| The Secret Circle | |
0.99 |
| One Tree Hill* | final season | 1.07 |
| Supernatural (F) | renewed | 1.08 |
| Vampire Diaries | renewed | 1.82 |
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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
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- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
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- certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
@Mickey, nice retention ratio
I am glad that US TV system is not limited to these 5 and there are cable channels in US which produce a lot of quality tv shows. I watch a lot of these series and thankfully all of them are coming back (PLL, Boss, Dexter, The Walking Dead, House of Lies, Southland, Homeland, Falling Skies and Damages)and also Flashpoint and Rookie Blue from Canada so in total 20 out 26 are coming back. Looking forward to some of these series to start…and yes this renewal/cancellation index passed over 600 entries
GUYS! The secret circle still can be saved, THE CW Upfronts are on 4 days… so, we need to sign the petitions to save our beloved show and maybe The CW Could change their minds and renew TSC And cancel That Flop Of Dixie!
I cannot believe they cancelled The Secret Circle. It has the 3rd highest ratings if you take out OTH. It is unreal how they do this to us. Just get me into a show and then…BAMM…they cancel it. There stupid reality shows are just getting worse and worse. They are lucky they have TVD and SPN to keep their heads above water because they sure would not last long with all the crappy ratings and cancelling one of the higher rated shows!!
@Peter Mazz, others, save your clicks, The Secret Circle is dead.
Nikita renewed. Sweeeet.
@SmG
@Mickey, nice retention ratio
Haha, true! 90% is not bad at all.
If I add my Canadian shows (Republic of Doyle and Lost Girl) and my U.S. cable show (Leverage) it’s even higher, 12 out of 13.
Canadian channels have been slow to capitalize on the new popularity of U.S. cable shows. It’s been weird because normally we can see all the American series here in real time–and even in some cases, a day or two before.
Some U.S. cable series are aired by Canadian cable channels, but always much later, and so many more we never see here at all. But now some Canadian channels are also producing their own original shows, like Show’s Lost Girl, which gets really good reviews and is doing very well on SyFy in the States. (I love their tagline: “Everyone has vampires. We have a succubus!”)
Things are changing so much and so quickly with TV, from the rise (and hopefully imminent fall) of Reality TV, the shift to DVR and online viewing, the innovation of HBO and the rise of cable. It’ll be interesting to see how the networks adapt. Or fail to adapt.
For Kripke fans, first trailer for Revolution. It looks absolutely amazing.
So this is what the man can do with a bigger budget.
http://www.nbc.com/revolution/
Ringer and Hart of Dixie are well written. I tuned in every week and am disgusted that shows with good writing are canceled and replaced with crap reality shows like the Kim, Kloe and Kris show, and Jersey Shores and people eating snakes and working against each other. Pan Am, another excellent show being cancelled. I am disappointed and disgruntled. I find myself running to the TV to switch channels or turn the tv off so that my house is not invaded by crap reality shows. Shame on Fox, ABC, CBS and NBC for canceling well written, scripted television.
@Maribeth
Hart of Dixie was renewed, not cancelled.
I share your distate for Reality TV.
RENEW THE SECRET CIRCLE ONLY THING I WATCH ON THERE BESIDES SUPERNATURAL :0 PLEASE I BEG OF YOU ITS AMAZING I LOVE IT:).
They can,t cancel secret circle get rid of ringer and gossip girl. The show is the best please don,t cancel secret circle.
Wtf! The secret circle should not be cancelled. Look at all 600+k people On Facebook who “like” it.
Let the viewers decide if a show should stay or not!
THE SECRET CIRCLE NEEDS TO BE RENEWED!!!!!!!!!!!! I LOVE THAT SHOW AND IT WAS JUST GETTING REALLY GOOD HOW CAN THEY END IT LIKE THAT ????????? I WONT TSC ALL THE WAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I AGREE WITH ANYONE WHO PUT TSC SHOULD BE RENEWED THAT SHOW IS FRICKING AMAZING !!!!!! PLEASE RENEW IT!!
GG IS SUCH A STUPID SHOW THEY NEED TO CANCEL THAT AND KEEP TSC!!!!
I agree with Bill TSC should get renewd not stupid GG!!!!!!
Please keep Secret Circle on my whole famiy loves it also my friends i look foward to watching it i also tape it for my husband
Don’t get rid of Secret Circle it is the best show
Okay, anybody who wants to save the circle, LISTEN UP!!!Go to gopetition/petition/please-save-the-circle.com to sign the pledge to bring it back!!!The target is the cw president!!Your vote could make a difference.
DAMN!!!! I was really getting into Ringer