CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Faye Lescalleet

    BRING BACK “SECRET CIRCLE”!!!!! DO NOT CANCEL THIS SHOW. PEOPLE INVEST THEIR TIME AND BECOME INVESTED IN THESE SHOWS AND THEN YOU JUST RIP THEM OFF THE AIR. NEVER TRUST THESE NETWORKS TO DO THE RIGHT THING. WHAT YOU WILL REPLACE THEM WITH WILL PROBABLY BE CRAP.

  • Faye Lescalleet

    RECONSIDER!!!! DO NOT CANCEL “THE SECRET CIRCLE”.

  • Brad

    I don’t know if I could survive without Nikita. It is by far the best show on TV. If it was on another network it would be getting way better recognition.

  • TARRI

    I hope Nikita and TSC will be renewed! :D

  • Riez

    Hope that tsc will be renewed.. I’ve been liked download it on the website every friday after the show been finished.. Well i can see it every thursday coz cw wasnt available in brunei.. Hope that tsc could be renewed.

  • sabryna stpierre

    THE SECRET CIRCLE BETTER GET RENEWED, AND MEAN WHILE THIS I GUESS THIS IS GOOD BYE CW .

  • MarC

    I really like The Secret Circle! It’s got a fairly high rating, compared to some others being renewed, so why the frowny faces? But, I really can’t believe that Nikita is rated so low! I love Nikita, The Vampire Diaries, and The Secret Circle. I got in to Hart of Dixie, also. Why are they changing it to Tues. night tho? It’s surely doomed cuz of NCIS and NCIS LA!!! CW must want it to fail?

  • Abby

    I cant believe I want secret circle it is my favorite show of all time!!

  • benny

    Ww only watch SECRET CIRCLE AND NIKITA on cw. Please save both

  • Emily

    I REALLY hope TSC is not canceled!!!! I think TSC has a fairly large chance of being renewed. So many people have been watching it. Including me.

  • maina

    i think they should renew TSC !! its the bestest show ever

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