CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Tony ^_^

    The L.A. Complex: “Cancelled” (CW will not air the second season)
    Ringer: Cancelled
    Nikita: Cancelled
    Hart Of Dixie: Could go both ways. But if it’s Renewed, it will stay on Mondays.
    The Secret Circle: Could go both ways. If it’s Renewed, it will be moved to Friday so that a new show airs after Vampire Diaries.
    Gossip Girl: Should be cancelled but won’t surprise me it it’s Renewed.

  • RyanCanada

    LOL @ GG, i think bill and robert were eat there words! GG should have no chance, how can one be renewed, with the cost of there saleries, and the face that they can no longer get a million viewers, you cant pay the actors if you dont make any money lol.

    my vote is Nikita, Ringer and GG will be cancelled.

  • Pete

    Interesting when you check out how many likes each of the shows have on facebook

    TSC – 652k
    Nikita – 406k
    Ringer – 276k
    Hart of Dixie – 187k (LOL)

  • Max

    May 17, 2012 is the CW upfronts, I know what CW shows will come back or won’t come back next season:

    Coming back: 90210, Supernatural, & The Vampire Diaries
    On the bubble: Gossip Girl, Hart of Dixie, Nikita, & The Secret Circle
    Won’t come back: LA Complex & Ringer

  • alexjones

    pretty generous prediction for nikita, I wouldn’t go aboove 20% myself.

  • nicola83

    Gossip Girl – 80% (13 episodes)
    Hart of Dixie – 65% (13 episodes)
    Nikita – 45%
    The Secret Circle – 20%
    Ringer – 0%
    The LA Complex – 0%

  • John

    My guesses:
    Nikita and Ringer: Canceled
    Gossip Girl: 13 episode final season

    It’s hard to tell what’s going to happen with Hart of Dixie and The Secret Circle. I suppose it’s possible that both will be renewed for thirteen episodes each in the event that all of the network’s new shows fail, but I think Secret Circle has a slight advantage because it’s average ratings have been better. The CW also just released a Secret Circle App for the iPhone, which makes me think that they’ve been planning on renewing the show for a while now.

  • ron

    my guesses are

    GG- Renewed 13 Episodes
    HoD- it`s doing great laately so im not shure yet buy Maybe Renewed for 13 episodes
    Nikita- So sad But cancell
    TSC I Believe they are gonna give thema second chance andd get it Renewed

  • SmG

    @Jake, that can be said too :D

  • jamie

    It’s being generally reported that Gossip Girl and Dixie will be back. While Nikita is 50/50 and TSC/Ringer will get the chop.

    That seems reasonable to me.

    Haven’t seen Dixie since December. But, out of their new shows it’s doing best. Bad lead-in, strong competition and okay ratings = renewed. TSC — excellent lead-in, better watched night, strong-ish competition, terrible ratings = canceled.

  • J.G.

    Going a bit bold here, but who cares

    Cancelled:
    Ringer, Nikita, TSC and Hart of Dixie

  • Scot

    I agree that GG will probably get a final season renewal but after last nights .4 rating in the demo, I bet even the people at the CW who have come to expect these low ratings will be kicking themselves over that decision!

    Doesn’t matter to me anyway, only shows I watch on the network are Vampire Diaries and Supernatural, and those have already got their renewals. People aren’t dumb….we watch the quality programs and ignore the rest of the crap that keeps getting put on the air.

  • SmG

    Pilot Buzz Update

    According to sources at the CW, The Secret Circle and Ringer do not exist on any of the network’s possible schedules and are considered dead. Gossip Girl, Nikita, Hart of Dixie are all likely to be renewed though most probably with shorter orders. The CW will launch several new shows in midseason. First Cut, Arrow, The Carrie Diaries, Beauty and the Beast, The Selection and Cult all seem likely to be picked up though the CW began having some doubts about Cult.

    -SpoilerTV

  • M

    How the heck is it possible that GG has a better chance of renewal than HoD, and TSC?

    What goes on the CW, I just can’t explain!

  • Dave

    @SmG

    If that rumor is true, then I’m jumping for joy for NIKITA! :D

  • SMG4E

    I’m gonna laugh in allbof your faces when Ringer gets renewed! Bring on the second season of Ringer!

  • L*

    I want Ringer renewed. This show’s so good. We love it in FRANCE and it has to be renewed ><

  • TomKH

    I’ve been saying that TSC was dead for over a month. There is absolutely no upside for the CW if they renew it over HOD or Nikita.

    If the GG finale doesn’t do over 0.5 I think the CW will cancel it because the ad money next season wouldn’t even cover wardrobe costs.

  • jens2488

    Posted on Spoilertv:

    According to sources at the CW, The Secret Circle and Ringer do not exist on any of the network’s possible schedules and are considered dead. Gossip Girl, Nikita and Hart of Dixie are all likely to be renewed though most probably with shorter orders for all of them. The CW will launch several new shows in midseason. First Cut, Arrow, The Carrie Diaries, Beauty and the Beast, The Selection and Cult all seem likely to be picked up though the CW began having some doubts about Cult.

    It is spoilertv, so take it for what you want!

  • Brandy

    Nikita 15% Does well on Netflix iveheard, does well internationaly(I’ve heard it’s cancelled or moved to late
    spots in some countries), most other shows tank too on Fri,Mark is a fan, some of cast or producers went to NY to pitch season two ,maybe for upfronts, the show is being promoted more (cw, deadline,ect), tvline moved it to “safe bet”,Deadline said its a bubble show with a shot.However, it’s demo is awful, it’s loosing viewers each week, and I ts ratings won’t improve and I have a hard time believing cw will keep it around for syndication while it’s rating decline more.
    SC 50% it’s ratings have been the best of the new shows.But it’s ratings have declined and it looses half of VDs audience
    HoD 50%it’s ratings have been steady, it’s lost the least amount of viewers of the new shows, it grows out of its lead units ratings steady against heavy competition,ect. But it’s ratings are low.
    Ringer 0% SMGs pregnant & ratings are awful
    I think Ringer, Nikita,La Complex will and should be cancelled.I think one of SC /HoD will be renewed at least.
    I want SC, HoD renewed.

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