CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

-
Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
-
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

-
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • alexjones

    @SmG
    great news for nikita if that is true, they should probably just give it a final 13 episodes to wrap things up since the show has little future prospects.
    sad to hear about TSC though, will be sad to see it go.

  • Rob123

    Hope nikita gets renewed! Hopefully the ratings will go up!! guys you need to watch nikita, its so good- best show on tv!

  • Pete

    @smg

    As if!!!

  • It Girl

    HART OF DIXIE IS THE WORST SHOW IN TV’S HISTORY !

  • Obsessed With Hart of Dixie

    LA Complex 0%
    Ringer 2%
    Nikita 25%
    The Secret Circle 55%
    Gossip Girl 100%
    Hart of Dixie 100000000000%

  • SmG

    By the way, that was just SpoilerTV guys, no deadline, variety etc. So, take it with a grain of salt :)

    Although Deadline reported something similiar (HOD, GG likely coming back, Nikita on the bubble, no mention of TSC which means its possibly dead)

  • Pepper

    Ringer, LA Complex, Remodeled – deader than dead
    GG should be cancelled with those numbers but it’ll get 13 final episodes
    TSC renewed
    Nikita, HOD – cancelled

  • Rob123

    nikita should be renewed! Has such a great, hooking stroyline!

  • Jess

    @Pete

    Please tell me wtf facebook, twitter, or any other numbers you want to throw out about any of these shows have to do with things. Facebook likes don’t equal money. A twitter mention by some spam bot doesn’t equal money. Its the ratings that do. No need to bash on people for guessing their percentages. If you like a show then sure comment on it, if you don’t just let it rest. Your hostility is not needed.

  • Jessie

    Wow, so they’re really gonna cancel TSC over Nikita? That’s… surprising.

    And I’m also shocked that they’re not picking up Shelter considering the team behind it. The CW really needs to get it together sat, they can’t afford to keep these subpar ratings

  • Pete

    @ jess

    Quit being a drama.queen.

  • Sid

    @SmG

    I hope the rumor is true.

  • Tommy Mickens

    @Bill Gorman – here’s my predictions :)

    The L.A. Complex – 5% (but only because it’s already being produced anyway, otherwise it’d be 0%)
    Ringer – 30%
    Nikita – 45%
    Hart of Dixie – 51%
    Gossip Girl – 55%
    The Secret Circle – 60%

  • Cristian

    Guys, The L.A. Complex has already been renewed. It’s a Canadian TV show, and CTV already ordered Season 2.

  • Ryan M

    GG and TSC are my guesses for being renewed :)

  • erin

    Gossip girls must be renewed for a full season 7 its crazy because gossip girls has a book series and especially book series last forever come on cw network renew gossip girls for a season 7 and please renew the whole series of gossip girls and now they call it the cw network most I don’t understand why the cw network always have to cancel good shows and not renewing their programming shows on the network don’t no cancelation for gossip girls all of the viwers who watch gossip girls will get upset

  • Bizarro

    I’m not going to listen to these ratings because Hart of Dixie is doing way better than GG now. GG just got the second lowest ratings on the CW this season (a 0.4, and 4th time under a million). Ringer didn’t ever get under a million and grew almost each week to a 0.6 with DVR viewings and Nikita as well. Both shows have proved that they are/were in a bad time slot but more so on Ringer than Nikita. Both do good internationally but I really don’t know what the CW’s decision will be. It looks like every time that Ringer or HOD is looking to be cancelled other shows on the network do worse. Ringer had GG, The LA Complex, TSC, and Nikita have lower rated episodes than Ringer. Too bad The CW will renew GG for a final season because their show doesn’t deserve it I mean 4 under a million airings and a 0.4 in its fifth season. Even if Ringer was one of the lowest rated shows it fought hard in its time slot and I’m going to remember that. I know now that HOD is not in danger of being cancelled because that would be a dumb ass move for the CW. It just got another 0.6 and has grown each week from it’s lead in. The CW should renew Ringer and Hart of Dixie and cancel the rest of the shows on the bubble because they either have had another chance or they have failed in a totally secure time slot. But bye Ringer!

  • Anna

    Is idiot how these people don’t see that Hart of Dixie has better demo and numbers that TSC and Nikita. Anyway, you will know the truth in May 17: Hart of Dixie renewed. Kisses for the haters xx

  • Jess

    @Pete

    Just stating facts. If you want to post stupid comments making fun of other peoples opinions then you need to learn how to take it when someone throws it back at you. :)

    P.S I love my throne.

  • The Other Tony

    @ Kate

    While the CW execs may have convinced themselves that it’s an either-or scenario between HoD and TSC, another option would be the following:

    Renew TSC for 13 episodes to air in the fall, with the possiblity for a Back-Nine pickup depending on the fall ratings/demos.

    Renew HoD for 13 episodes but hold it over until midseason, so it can be subbed in for a new show that flops or to spackle the schedule when other CW shows are on midseason hiatus. It could also include an option for an additional 3-5 episodes to potentially be tacked onto HoD’s order at the last minute, depending on how HoD performs when it returns midseason (NBC did a similar thing with Medium back in the Spring of 2005).

    I also think it would be a good idea for the CW to hold over some of its new freshmen series until midseason (Cult, First Cut, Joey Dakota), since Pedowitz can’t count on all of the new fall entries being decent performers.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures