CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Kate

    My two favorite shows (90210 and TVD) are already renewed so now this is just fun.

    I agree with Bill. I think TSC will get the edge over the rest because of overall performance and the fact that it would pair better with SPN on Fridays than any of the other shows. GG really should be gone, but it won’t. Here’s to hoping they only give it 8 episodes and run them during some hiatus.

    HOD could get 13 episodes, but that’s it. I don’t see it getting a full season in any scenario. Ringer and Nikita are dead.

  • Brandy

    I agree with Jessie ,Im shocked that cw would renew Nikita which has 0.4-0.5 for second half of this season over SC which has done much better this season than Nikita with 0.5-0.7 for second half of this season. I’m shocked they’re even considering. Renewing a show with 0.4,especially one that’s not a CW veteran. I’ll lmfao if Nikita’s renewed and gets z0.2-0.3 next season.if it gets to season four, it’ll be getting0.0,
    Also GG 100% a GG writer tweeted Gossip Girl Season Six on Fri night.

  • Mae

    The L.A. Complex – 0%
    Ringer – 0%
    Nikita – 55%
    Hart Of Dixie – 35%
    The Secret Circle – 15%
    Gossip Girl – 70%

    It really irked me to give GG 70%, but I just don’t think the writers of GG would be acting so sure about next season, if the CW hadn’t given them some sort of renewal news. I would love the see the CW say “whoops! sorry! Just kidding, GG. Your ratings suck. No renewal for you!” I just have a hard time believing that the new president really cares all that much about GG. Would it really bother him if GG didn’t have a farewell season?

    TSC, eh. I think it’ll be gone. The ratings just aren’t impressive and it can’t keep it’s TVD pairing.

    HOD, eh. I think it has a slightly better chance at renewal over TSC, but I also just don’t know if it is worth keeping around. It’s done average to below average in ratings. I think a new show would have a better chance next season.

    Nikta I think might make the cut. Simply because it rounds out the Friday line-up. If the CW cancels it, what do they move there? There aren’t a whole lot of options.

    Ringer, SMG is pregnant. The show went quietly. I see no hope.

  • Phil

    SpoilerTV says Ringer & TSC are DEAD. Nikita, Dixie and GG are SAFE. I don’t care about GG and want it canceled. I watched TSC and Ringer since the pilot, and that’s why I want them axed. Both shows are crap.
    Here’s the update:
    “According to sources at the CW, The Secret Circle and Ringer do not exist on any of the network’s possible schedules and are considered dead. Gossip Girl, Nikita and Hart of Dixie are all likely to be renewed though most probably with shorter orders for all of them. The CW will launch several new shows in midseason. First Cut, Arrow, The Carrie Diaries, Beauty and the Beast, The Selection and Cult all seem likely to be picked up though the CW began having some doubts about Cult.”

  • ChrisA

    Predictions:

    RENEWED: Nikita and GG for a 13 episode but by last night horrible ratings maybe a 10 episode.

    50/50 CHANCE: TSC and HOD, one of these 2 show is getting the full season, mid-season replacement, cancellation OR both cancelled.

    CANCELLED: Ringer and LA Complex CW may not want to air it because of horrible ratings.

  • Aerilyn

    It’s SpoilerTV so I’d take it with a grain of salt. I personally don’t believe them.

    I still have my hopes that the CW will renew TSC.

  • Helpless

    I really like the cable business model which has different series with fewer episodes and less hiatus. When one show is done, the next fits into the timeslot with a switch back later. More new, more viewers… But unfortunately probably more expensive!

  • Kyle King

    TSC is not that important to keep. Between Dixie and Circle, Dixie is the highest rated (considering lead-in, night, promotion, etc.) and most praised new show. People don’t care about and critics don’t even talk about TSC. The CW wanted TSC to become the new Vampire Diaries, but since it fell short to expectations, they are getting rid of it without thinking twice. I think they prefer Josh Shwartz over Kevin Williamson. :P

  • Dave

    “I agree with Jessie ,Im shocked that cw would renew Nikita which has 0.4-0.5 for second half of this season over SC which has done much better this season than Nikita with 0.5-0.7 for second half of this season. I’m shocked they’re even considering. Renewing a show with 0.4,especially one that’s not a CW veteran. I’ll lmfao if Nikita’s renewed and gets z0.2-0.3 next season.if it gets to season four, it’ll be getting0.0,
    Also GG 100% a GG writer tweeted Gossip Girl Season Six on Fri night.”

    How is The Secret Circle doing better than NIKITA? As far as I see it, The Secret Circle was supposed to be doing at minimum 80% of what Vampire Diaries was doing so they could’ve used it to launch a night this upcoming Season. After it kept falling(to the 0.6-0.7 range), then I assumed(as many others) than now it’s Friday bound instead. But now, it joined the 0.5 group and it’s barely hovering over 1 million viewers; why would The CW renew it now? A 0.5 with 1.1 million viewers(Thursday) and a 0.4 with 1.3 million viewers(Fridays) are both horrible, but the Friday one outweighs it.

    THE SECRET CIRCLE is not doing better(regardless of how great it was doing in the Fall). CW is obviously looking at its numbers now and it spells bad news for the witches of Chance Harbor ;)

    I always said that the battle was between TSC and NIKITA for the Friday spot and with all the buzz pointing at NIKITA getting the upper-hand, this all but assures its renewal(whether short of full; I’m happy).

  • Tessa

    It’s a sweet day that SPN has renewed next to it. As for the rest I would say they’ll renew TSC and move it to Friday. HoD, Nikita and Ringer are all goners, and GG will get a last 13 ep farewell.

  • Kavyn

    Personally, I see HOD getting renewed over all of the other shows. It’s the most consistent in ratings and currently higher than TSC and Ringer with its recent ratings. TSC and Nikita are both on the bubble, with one staying and the other going (or both going). Ringer is done.

    GG getting renewed, although undeserved, seem like it’s inevitable. CW really screwed up with TCD and GG both being renewed, because they’re both 100% DOA.

  • JJJ

    @SMg–the spoiler TV rumor sounds possible but it has NO source so can’t trust it.

  • Sid

    I love how NIKITA’s chances are improving, especially when so many were calling it dead a few months back.

    If SECRET CIRCLE is cancelled, that’s 2 shows Britt Robertson killed :D

    Phoebi Tonkin and Shelly Hanning were the only bright spots(even though they were both mediocre at best) on the show. Besides its ratings, the show is all around horrible and it can’t seem to find its goove like TVD did in its first Season. It’s done!

  • The End

    Even with a shorter season, Nikita if the numbers improve can get an additional 9 episodes if the current season is 13 episodes.

    13 episodes if anything is just the network airing on the side of caution.

    Just throwing that out there, if Nikita gets renewed, fans should watch the show if they have a Nielsen box if they want more.

  • CrimTV

    Anyone who is saying Nikita will be renewed are pyscho, just because you like the show doesn’t mean The CW has to renew it. And if what SpoilerTV said is true and TSC is not even on the table and ‘DEAD’ then CW is stupid, they need to think it through and SpoilerTV said that HOD and Nikita are likely to be renewed, what?! TBH why would u want a shortened order of shows like Nikita/HOD when it will take longer to reach syndication, why not just cancel them while you can

  • Melody

    I’m hoping renewals for Nikita and Hart of Dixie, but the best news was the renewal of Supernatural – thank you CW!!!!

  • KS

    @Mae

    I just have a hard time believing that the new president really cares all that much about GG. Would it really bother him if GG didn’t have a farewell season?

    I am sure, he wants to cancel the show, as much as we do. But..
    1)CW just can’t give up their signature show without giving it a proper finale.
    2)With none of the fresher shows launched this season or the last one being a major successes, CW is in a very pathetic state. They have to save at least their well-established shows and survive on the other sources of income, only shows like this generate.
    3)”Your Ratings Suck” – This applies to whole of CW, not just GG. 0.1/0.2 – Do you really think this difference in the ratings is really ‘that’ prominent?(Considering current state of CW, 0.1/0.2 is prominent. But, if that is the difference between a fresher and 5-year old show, it is not.)

  • Bridget Kelly

    Ringer 100 %

  • Dillan

    Why on earth would The CW renew Nikita which has been getting constant 0.4 / 0.5’s ALL season.

  • alexjones

    if nikita does get renewed you can bet that bondoel/mikey will be on here under a new username to gloat about it.

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