CW: Final Guesses For 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/11 Update: Ringer has been canceled, Gossip Girl renewed for a final season. Nikita and Hart Of Dixie renewed. The Secret Circle has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The L.A. Complex 0% 0%
Ringer 5% 2%
Nikita 40% 45%
Hart Of Dixie 45% 55%
The Secret Circle 55% 45%
Gossip Girl 80% 78%

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Robert and I differ on which CW rookie show is going to be renewed. I think The Secret Circle will get another season, and Robert thinks it will be Hart Of Dixie, but neither of us is particularly confident in those calls.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex :oops: 0.45
Ringer* :oops: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.83
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle :| :| :| 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.08
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.82

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Adrian

    TSC is done. It has no place on the schedule. It can’t stay where it is and it shouldn’t be moved to Friday. It DOESN’T fit with SPN, not at all. Whoever says that has obviously never watched TSC. It fits more with 90210 than with SPN.

    the only way it can survive is like this
    “Renew for 13 episodes but hold it over until midseason, so it can be subbed in for a new show that flops or to spackle the schedule when other CW shows are on midseason hiatus.”

    pretty much exactly like Nikita and HOD. So any renewal/cancellation for 13 eops of those 3 wouldn’t surprise me

  • Restless

    Well, for those who say The CW should focus on fixing weekdays and ignore Friday as a reason to keep Nikita, then The CW should move Supernatural off Fridays. That would help ‘fix’ a weekday. The undead zombie Gossip Girl can make Fridays it’s crypt instead.

    Another sad but interesting idea is the thought that The CW will keep Nikita just so they can get one more show to syndication before going under. I don’t think they’ll hoist the white flag so early. Also don’t think they would have shipped it off to Fridays if they were seriously trying to get it to syndication. So I’m guessing Nikita along with Ringer is getting the boot.

    Also guess that both Hart of Dixie and The Secret Circle will be back, probably for shortened seasons, perhaps being held over to replace any sudden new show failures. Though I also think it’s fairly likely The Secret Circle could get a full season order and be off to Fridays to replace Nikita, simply because it should get higher ad-rates from it’s better beginning ratings.

    tl;dr
    Renewed full season for The Secret Circle, partial season for Gossip Girl and partial mid-season for Hart of Dixie.

  • jens2488

    I think it will make sense for them this season to launch as many shows as possible with shortened seasons. After the season they can pick the strongest for full seasons for next fall.

    CW has the problem that they never have many backups, if a show did bad it still got a back 9 order, because they had nothing to fill in for the other show besides repeats.

    If they really pick up all pilots and old series that are mentioned on spoilertv, they would have three shows with full seasons (TVD, SN and 90210) and 9 shows with a 13 episode order (GG, Nikita, HoD, Arrow, The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & Beast, First Cut, The Selection and Cult). And they have ordered one cycle of ANTM so far, which would mean that they can have a lot of original programming without many repeats or hiatuses, at least for the shows with 13 episodes orders.

  • Bridget Kelly

    ringer will be renewed you people are delusional

  • Charmed

    I’ll do one last schedule :(

    MONDAY
    8pm First Cut/Cult
    9pm Hart Of Dixie

    TUESDAY
    8pm 90210
    9pm The Carrie Diaries

    WEDNESDAY
    8pm America’s Next Top Model
    9pm Beauty And The Beast

    Thursday
    8pm The Vampire Diaries
    9pm The Selection

    FRIDAY
    8pm Arrow/Nikita
    9pm Supernatural

  • Bee

    I don’t understand why they still have to make a new season of GG, it got boring and annoying after season 3. -.-

    I really hope for a 2nd season of SECRET CIRCLE!

  • Mirella

    Why can’t the CW give the shows a chance.
    Ringer and Hart of Dixie are both amazing shows. If the commercials showed the amazingness of the shows, they would have more views. Give them 13 more episodes each, and they will get a bigger audience!!!
    Ringer is especially good, and full of drama!
    Just renew them all, and stop introducing shows for 1 season and cancelling them. Give them a chance!

    There’s been Life Unexpected, Melrose Place, The Beautiful Life, Priveledged, etc. All theses shows were on for one season and they got cancelled!
    People are not gonna start watching new shows; because what’s the point! They are gonna get cancelled in the end!

    Just give them all a chance!
    …except the L.A. complex; that show sucks lol

  • Adrian

    @jens2488

    Thank you. That’s what the CW needs to do to survive. It doesn’t have the ratings of a major broadcast network. It has to stop behaving like one and stop acting like a cable channel, which is what its ratings look like.

    @Restless
    It’s not a matter of hoisting any flags. It’s a matter of trying to get something to syndication before their affiliates begin to drop it or deciding not to renew their contracts in 2016. At least that’s how I see it.

  • JJA

    Nikita is a great show!!

    It is the CW’s best show right now in terms of quality, save for possibly the VD. Nikita is vastly superior to GG and 90210. It is even better than the shark-jumping Supernatural, which retains an audience due to PAST quality, rather than its current state.

    I hope it gets one more season, even if it is just 13 episodes.

  • Kate

    The only shows I see making it to syndication (that aren’t already in syndication numbers like SPN and GG) are TVD and 90210. Nikita is not going to survive next season if it’s renewed, and neither will TSC or HOD. Like a lot of others, I don’t see this network lasting past 2016 which would mean none of the incoming shows for the 2012-2013 season would reach those numbers, either.

  • KS

    My suggestion to CW:

    Its better to pickup two series of 13/12 episodes each, rather than picking up one series for 22 episodes, only to see it fail after a few weeks.

  • SherLOCKED (The Mighty Cringe)

    still sad about Ringer….such a good show deserves to be renewed.

    Oh well…..I guess I must move on…

  • The End

    @alexjones

    I wouldn’t blame him, granted I think there’s something wrong with him mentally, he has had people telling him the show will be cancelled for months, even whilst he was acting crazy. I think he’d just be all too happy now that the one show he lives for is coming back(If it does).

    Sad thing is, if he ever met any of the cast of this show, they’d probably think the same as us of him.

  • enes

    I want Ringer renewed !

  • Adrian

    @Kate I agree

    We also have to consider the Netflix/Hulu deals. If Nikita gets another season, it will gain more money from those.
    New shows wouldn’t have time to make that much money from those either, since those deals will expire in a couple years.

  • Nick

    The L.A. Complex 0%
    Ringer 0%
    Nikita 51%
    Hart Of Dixie 58%
    The Secret Circle 40%
    Gossip Girl 76%

  • KC

    Sad to say Ringer is probably a goner. It kinda dragged through out the season, but ended in a big old bucket of soapy fun.

  • Brandy

    Dave In the fall Nikita got 0.6 while SC got over 1.0 and half a season over 2 million viewers while Nikita went below that in season one. In the second half of this season, Nikita manages 0.4-0.5 with cws second highest rated show and SC mainly got 0.7, just recently dropping to 0.5-0.6. That’s why I say SC s done better this season than Nikita.

  • Kate

    @KS – That’s what I think they should do, too. There are only 3 shows (thus far) on the network that deserve the full seasons and can handle them. And they’re the ones that have already been renewed. 90210 and SPN are getting 24 episodes, and I assume that TVD will have between 22-24 depending on a variety of factors. The rest, both returning and new, should receive no more than 13 initially. Some should stick to 13 episodes a la Cult, whether it’s because any additional episodes would be filler or because they aren’t generating good enough numbers to receive more.

    @Adrian – That too. But I think the chances of Nikita getting more than 13 episodes next season are slim and the chance that it’s renewed beyond those is an even lesser percentage.

  • Rachel

    I really think TSC is gonna be cancelled now.

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