FOX: Final Guesses For 'Touch,' 'Alcatraz,' 'The Finder' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The Finder 15% 15%
Alcatraz 15% 15%
Napoleon Dynamite 40% 40%
Touch 55% 60%
Bob's Burgers 60% 60%

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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) renewed 0.49
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In* canceled 0.64
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.70
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (some F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Raising Hope renewed 0.88
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 1.00
Bones renewed 1.05
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
House final season 1.10
Touch :| :| :| 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.21
New Girl renewed 1.34
Glee renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Bee

    touch may have just been saved by that 2.1 it got last week. it’ll have to pull a miracle to make it to season 3, but it deserves the stay over the others.

  • Carmen

    I (sadly) agree with the 15% renewal predictions for the Finder.

    I thought (and commented) during the season that if Finder could get a 1.4 average then it could survive.

    But with the ratings it has gotten on Friday in the past month, I have to acknowledge that its (almost surely) a goner.

    I think a lot of folks gave up on it after the first 2-3 episodes. It got better, but too little, too late.

  • GirlTalk

    Did Fox officially cancel “The River”?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Did Fox officially cancel “The River”?”

    Since it was an ABC show, definitely not. ;)

  • Avery

    2012-13 Schedule
    Monday
    8:00 – Bones
    9:00 – Touch

    Tuesday
    8:00 – Raising Hope
    8:30 – Prodigy Bully
    9:00 – New Girl
    9:30 – Let It Go

    Wednesday
    8:00 – The X-Factor/American Idol

    Thursday
    8:00 – The X-Factor/American Idol
    9:00 – Glee

    Friday
    8:00 – Living Loaded
    8:30 – My Little Brother
    9:00 – Hell’s Kitchen

    Saturday
    8:00 – FOX Sports

  • Carmen

    I hope that the 60% chance for Bob’s Burgers materializes.

    That show is a lot. . .a lot. . .better than I thought it would be before it first aired.

  • Alex

    I think Touch will be saved purely for the fact that Fox won’t want to cancel all its freshman dramas. Isn’t it pretty successful internationally as well? Also, I think it’s the type of show that works better with a 13 episode season, so I bet we’ll see it saved until midseason to replace something else that fails.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I think Touch will be saved purely for the fact that Fox won’t want to cancel all its freshman dramas. “

    You mean, like they did last season?

  • GirlTalk

    Thanks, Bill. Sad I didn’t remember it was an ABC show. Don’t know whether that’s a reflectioon on Fox or ABC???

  • Alex

    Ahh, fair point. I’d forgotten about how they killed all their bubble shows last year…
    But in any case, I’m grateful for the improbable Fringe renewal, and hoping for Touch to be renewed since the past few episodes have been really good.

  • Mickey

    Too bad for The Finder. I like it, it had potential.

  • Ultima

    Alcatraz – 0%
    The Finder – 0%
    Napoleon Dynamite – 20%
    Touch – 50%

    Animations getting additional episodes…
    American Dad – 40%
    Cleveland Show – 60%
    Bob’s Burgers – 60%
    Family Guy – 100%

  • One

    NO ALCATRAZ NO! YOU MUST COME BACK! SOME PART OF HOUSECATRAZ MUST SURVIVE!

    Except, as we all know, I kinda cooled on it late…

  • Tom

    Finder 20%
    Alc 0%
    ND 20%
    Touch 70% (Fox needs some spackle.)
    BB 80% (Fox needs something on the air in Spring.)

  • amr

    Touch should be renewed and moved back to mondays!!!!

  • Harris

    What is Fox going to do? They better have some freakin’ gold for next season.

  • Sports Preemption

    I think Bob’s gets picked up past its truncated run of overrun episodes next season, especially cause Flintstones got moved back and I hear American Dad is ending.

    Out of the drama’s, I would personally have rooted for Fringecatraz Fridays, but I think Touch is going to win that race and get the rookie renewal.

  • rob60990

    Alcatraz – 0%
    The Finder – 5%
    Napoleon Dynamite – 15%
    Touch – 55%

  • Concerned Citizen

    Renewed: Touch, Bob’s Burgers

    Cancelled: The Finder, Alcatraz, Napoleon Dynamite

    New shows: Mindy Kaling sitcom, Rebounding, The Goodwin Games, Little Brother, Kevin Williamson drama, Mob Doctor, Karyn Usher drama

  • zerg

    Bob’sBurgers 70%
    Touch 45%
    The Finder 10%
    Napoleon 0%
    Alcatraz :( 10%

    Fox needs space for next year

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