FOX: Final Guesses For 'Touch,' 'Alcatraz,' 'The Finder' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The Finder 15% 15%
Alcatraz 15% 15%
Napoleon Dynamite 40% 40%
Touch 55% 60%
Bob's Burgers 60% 60%

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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) renewed 0.49
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In* canceled 0.64
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.70
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (some F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Raising Hope renewed 0.88
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 1.00
Bones renewed 1.05
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
House final season 1.10
Touch :| :| :| 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.21
New Girl renewed 1.34
Glee renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Rebecca

    Nuts. It’s not there.

  • Rebecca

    Okay, fixed, I hope.

  • Rebecca

    hehe, just had to refresh the page. Now it’s there.

  • Holly

    @Rebecca,

    Glad it worked for you :)

  • Rebecca

    Thanks, Holly.

  • Rebecca

    @tvfreak
    Never mind what I said earlier. There ARE new Tuesday threads today for all the networks. A couple are onto page two now. I’ll check later when it’s my vote time.

  • tvfreak

    Voting has moved to the R/C Wrap threads until the Ultimate Winners are declared. Have fun!

  • Mary

    That STINKS that they Cancelled Alcatraz. I really enjoyed watching that show.

  • chuck

    Fox ??? I watch 4 programs from your weekly line up and you just canceled 2 of them.
    whats up with you people???

  • chuck

    ABC, I watched 3 programs from your weekly line up and you just canceled 2 of them. nice move!!!

  • maxrep

    Don’t be stupid FOX you finally have good TV shows like the Finder so what do you do you cancel them??? Talk about thinking out of your sitting area!!!

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